Guts Vs. Numbers

Guts stands Alone

2010-09-24T08:46:00.000-07:00

Where the hell is Nums?

Here are my picks:

Red Zone:
1759ers v. Roughnecks: Our teams are absolutely even in my mind. Our quarterbacks will cancel each other out, but I believe I have a SLIGHT advantage at RB. 1759ers 67-66.

Fightendrunks v. Old Rusty Nails: I don't know what to do. I hate Tom, but Biechy can't seem to find a way to win. Nails 71-62

Blood Money v. Danny's Donkies: The name change didn't help last week and despite my predictions that Dan would return to glory, he's doing his best to make me wrong. This week, he makes me look goooood. Donkies 80-47.

Hells Satans v. Kibbles and Vicks: I agree with Teada that John will keep it under 50. However, this game will be weirdly close. Kibbles 50-49. P.S. Jeff, trade me one of your starting receivers.

Flying Hellfish v. Xperience: Al... you're a former champion, a friend and a bitter rival. I respect you and, other than when you play me, I hate to see you lose. I will be sad this week. X 60-58.

Sloptarts v. Robocops: James, you whipped me last week and whipped me good. Sloptarts find a way to win this one. See you in a week Teada. Jamaal Charles will have a huge game, and make huge strides to getting the majority of the carries in KC. Slop 65-48.

In the NFL:
In my first week picking against the spread, I went a very respectable 9-7. I should also toot my own horn and point out that I picked Houston to win by exactly 3, which they did in overtime. I should also humble myself by noting that I picked Arizona to beat the spread in Atlanta. OUCH.

This week:
Tennessee @ NYG: Current Line: NYG -3
Pick: Tennessee. Joseph Addai shredded the Giants overpriced D-Line. Chris Johnson will bounce back with a dominant performance.

Buffalo @ New England: Current Line: New England -14.
Pick: New England. Buffalo is really bad. Harvard's Ryan Fitzpatrick is not good. Should have drafted Clausen.

Cleveland @ Baltimore: Current Line: Baltimore -10.5.
Pick: Baltimore. Baltimore will win this game by 100 and make me look good even though it's a HUGE spread for a Ravens offense that hasn't produced yet. Harrison is the real deal. If CLE can find a way to pass the ball, he'll run for miles, not against BAL, but just saying.

Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay: Current Line: Pittsburgh -2.5.
Pick: Pittsburgh. I think if Charlie Batch can avoid mistakes and if Mendenhall carries the ball 25 times, they will win. Tampa Bay is not bad, not at all, but Pittsburgh's defense looks as good as it has in years. Polamalu is healthy. Pittsburgh could have a very good season and will ensure they will be no worse than 3-1 when Ben returns.

Cincinnati @ Carolina: Current Line: Cincy -3.
Pick: Cincinnati. Clausen will play a lot better than expected. Steve Smith is an older, wiser, more experienced version of Golden Tate whom Clausen had a lot of fun with in college. Expect Jimmy to lean on Smith against a weak Bengals secondary. Cincy has too many weapons on offense.

Atlanta @ New Orleans: New Orleans -4.
Pick: New Orleans. I don't see any let down here, even without Reggie. Saints are for real.

San Francisco @ Kansas City: SF -2.5.
Pick: San Francisco. I have to believe this is the week SF breaks through. The Seattle game was a fluke and I believe you saw what this team is really capable of against the defending champs on Monday Night.

Detroit @ Minnesota: Minnesota -11.
Pick: Detroit. Minnesota will win, Favre will have a fine game and people will say he's finally settled in. Detroit will play tough and lose by a handful like they did against Philly.

Dallas @ Houston: Houston -3.
Pick: Houston. I've always found myself rooting for the Texans and in the past I have labeled them a perpetual 8-8 team. This year they look fun and explosive. They'll win big and Wade Phillips will swallow his own head with shame while Jerry Jones urinates on his future burial site.

Washington @ St. Louis: Washington -3.5
Pick: Washington. McNabb will not throw for over 400 yards again. He'll throw for 298 and 2 Tds and that will be enough.

San Diego @ Seattle: San Diego -5.5
Pick: San Diego. Seattle has some weapons, but they need something fresh at quarterback. San Diego is tooled up and really should be undefeated if it weren't for the weather gods week 1.

Oakland @ Arizona: Arizona -4.
Pick: Oakland. I truly have NO idea how Oakland is almost 0-2 and only beat the Rams by 2 points and lost to the Titans by 22. This team has looked great running the football and has one of the best passing defenses in the league. Oh wait, QUARTERBACK. Give the ball to Jason Campbell and for the love of god run slants.

Philadelphia @ Jacksonville: Philadelphia -3.
Pick: Jacksonville. I like what Vick is doing. But for some reason I feel like Jacksonville is gonna win. This is my GUTSY pick of the week.

Indianapolis @ Denver: Indianapolis -5.5.
Pick: Indianapolis. You all better take the Texans seriously, the Colts are incredible and they whipped them. I laugh every time I see a Colts matchup. Peyton is ridiculously good. The only problem he might have in Denver is the possibility that the 4 tds he'll throw will go a little further than usual.

New York Jets @ Miami: Miami -2.5.
Pick: Miami. It's trendy to pick Miami. They made me look good last week. I'm sticking with them. If they can hold the Jets to less than 10 points, they should be able to put up 13 against the Jets defense.

Green Bay @ Chicago: Green Bay -3.
Pick: Green Bay. I'm sorry. I can't buy into the Bears. And even if I could, the Packers are just good. If they can make a trade for a more complete back than Brandon Jackson, they'll be unstoppable.

Guts-pology

2010-09-17T06:19:00.000-07:00

I apologize for not getting Sunday's picks up. I was in South Bend, IN, (with Nums coincidentally) at the Michigan/Notre Dame game. It was a heartbreaking defeat for our beloved Irish. Anyway, while I was there Nums informed me, much to my chagrin, that he was seriously unable to use his BS number system without data. So he can't start picking until that's ready. He's weak. I went 0-1 last week. I picked the vikings to beat a 4.5 point spread and they lost by 5. Close. All that means is that I'm tuned in and ready to pick.

NFL Week 2:

Arizona @ Atlanta: Atlanta -6.5. I've got to think Atlanta's offense will show up this weekend at home. A lot of other "experts" are counting Arizona out of this game because it's an East Coast game. This is not in New England and it's on turf. I like Arizona to beat this spread in my GUTSY pick of the week.
Pick: Arizona

Tampa Bay @ Carolina: OFF. I have to pick this game straight up. I like Tampa Bay and I think they have a decent future ahead of them with Morgan Freeman, star of Shawshank Redemption, at QB. I like Carolina at home though on the legs of DeAngelo Williams.
Pick: Carolina

Buffalo @ Green Bay: Green Bay -13. I like Green Bay to cover. Mark my words, Buffalo will be the worst team in the NFL this year and will draft a quarterback 1st overall.
Pick: Green Bay

Baltimore @ Cincinnati: Baltimore -2. After this week, Cincinnati will be the best 0-2 team. Their offense is revamped, but Baltimore's looked "Ravens Super Bowl 2000" Good. Baltimore still feels the sting of last year's two defeats at the hands of the Bengals.
Pick: Baltimore

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee: Tennessee -5. This seems like a Tennessee lock. Chris Johnson looks great, the defense held up well against the revamped Raiders. The Steelers have a third-string quarterback in. NOPE! Pittsburgh will beat this spread.
Pick: Pittsburgh

Kansas City @ Cleveland: Cleveland -1.5. I can't understand this one. Cleveland loses to Tampa Bay (bad team) and Kansas City beats San Diego (playoff team) and Cleveland is favored. If no one watched the late Monday Game, let me refresh your memory. Chiefs=fast.
Pick: Always pick speed, Chiefs.

Philadelphia @ Detroit: Philadelphia -4.5. Vick is back. See him run.
Pick: Philadelphia (by a wide margin).

Chicago @ Dallas: Dallas -8.5. This is a trap spread. Dallas is at home and will have something to prove.
Pick: Dallas. I'm going to regret this pick. But I have to think Dallas is better than they showed in Washington.

Miami @ Minnesota: Minnesota -5.5: Again, another team with something to prove at home. The Vikings offense, despite their chirping, might need to trade for Vincent Jackson. Miami is much improved and can run all over the dome.
Pick: Miami. Minnesota will be the second best 0-2 team. (Favre will waste this team this year).

St. Louis @ Oakland: Oakland -3.5. The Raiders had bright spots in that game against Tennessee. The Rams will have a winning record in the next 5 years. This game won't help.
Pick: Oakland.

Seattle @ Denver: Denver -3.5. Perhaps Vegas did not see the Broncos first game. They confuse me. Seattle surprised everyone beating a much-hyped 49er squad who is already in Singletary's doghouse. That said...
Pick: Denver at home.

Houston @ Washington: Houston -3. Houston will win this stunningly close game by exactly 3. Arian Foster will rush for only 120 this week, he's a beast, pay attention. *Fantasy pick of the game: Santana Moss.
Pick: Houston.

Jacksonville @ San Diego: San Diego -7.5. Chargers will win big.
Pick: San Diego.

New England @ New York Jets: New England -1.5. The Jets are gross. I'm tired of hearing about them. Revis may shut down Moss but that team can't stop the rest of the Patriots passing game.
Pick: New England

N.Y. Giants @ Indianapolis: Indianapolis -5.5. Manning Bowl II. See Result of Manning Bowl I.
Pick: Indianapolis.

Fantasy League: The Red Zone IX

Let's start out with Me (1759ers) vs. Nums (Robocops): That's right, this week I play my arch-nemesis and heterosexual life-partner on the metaphorical gridiron. Nums is sporting a particularly despicable lineup that is unfortunately capable of upending me after my first week murder of the Flying Hellfish. Nums has Ahmad Bradshaw against an Indy defense that gave up 231 yds to Arian Foster (my boy) and Brandon Jackson against a Buffalo defense that surrendered 147 yards on the ground to Miami. Also, our matchup also pits the Manning brothers against one another. I happen to have the better one for fantasy purposes and that will be the difference this week. I'll win 72-66.

Fightendrunks v. Sloptarts:
The Sloptarts benefited last week playing against the worst team in Fantasy Football, the Hells Satans. Also, no matter who is on Manager/Coach/Owner Nick Teada's team, he seems to find a way to win. This year I have a feeling some of that luck will run out. There is definitely some talent on the Sloptarts, but inconsistency could be the death of that team. As for the Drunks. This team is scary. They currently sit in last place though due to a TD-less week from Peterson and Turner and a concussion to Kolb. I guarantee both Peterson and Turner will score this week and Michael Vick will be UNBELIEVABLE against the Lions. Drunks roll. 75-52.

Blood Money v. Hells Satans:
Ew. This is a must win game for both teams as my colleague Teed has already pointed out with his tremendous picks. It's hard to believe there could be a must-win game this early. I picked Blood Money, only because I hate John. Personally, I think this will be a 10-10 tie. But.. in the interest of seriousness, Blood Money will win a squeaker. 6-3.

Danny's Donkies v. Rusty Nails:
The Donkies suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of their most bitter rivals last week, the Roughnecks. Still, their team is solid. Nails team, however, benefited from a very strong trade last week and will debut new RB Ray Rice this week against Cincinnati. Rice was stuffed by the staunch Jets D last week, but he will be the high point man in this matchup that isn't a quarterback. Rivers will earn that honor and Rusty Nails will take this one 75-64.

Flying Hellfish v. The Roughnecks:
The Hellfish got lambasted last week against my championship caliber squad, but not because they're a bad team. No one scored. This is a touchdown heavy league and I look for the Hellfish to score lots of touchdowns. Seattle and Matt Hasselbeck put up 31 points against the 49ers. By sheer talent gap, Drew Brees should put up 60. The Roughnecks have the advantage top to bottom. But the Brees-Colston connection is too much to overcome. Hellfish 61-60.

Kibbles and Vicks v. TBX:
I know the following statement is going to come back to haunt me, but here it goes: Chris Johnson will not score a rushing touchdown vs. Pittsburgh. Further, if Pittsburgh is able to control Time of Possession, his 100 yard rushing game streak will end this week. With that, goes the Xperience momentum. I'm picking Kibbles, only because I see a let down this week. Biggs' team is WAY better, but this week, they lose. 66-65.

Guts and Glory: A Tale of Redemption

2010-09-09T07:34:00.000-07:00

Three years ago, my nemesis Nums and I embarked on a challenge. Who could choose NFL Football games more accurately? A man named Guts with more passion and American vigor in his pinky than is contained in the entire Bible Belt and possessing nothing more than pure football instinct and a love of the game OR a boy named Nums with a calculated system of proven indices created for the sole purpose of mathematically calculating the outcomes of games played by real people, human people. The answer was as shocking as the outcome of the super bowl (the giants beat the undefeated Patriots). Nums won, narrowly, sending me into a downward spiral of shame and physical self-degradation. But all that is behind me now. This year marks the return of Guts vs. Numbers and a return to glory. I will accept nothing less than pure domination over the rigid and anal ways of my counterpart.

The last three years
-Guts is now a 3rd year law student and still hates Nums.
-Nums is a civil engineer, living in Chicago and still wets the bed.
-Nums recently joined Guts' home fantasy football league and the two will be picking those games as well. (Not to be counted for the contest).

Contest Capsule: Each week, Nums and I will choose NFL games against the spread. I will use nothing but Guts and Nums will use stupid poopie-head numbers.

Today is the start of the 2010 Football season. In a rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game, the New Orleans, defending super-bowl champs, feel good story from a year ago, host teh Minnesota Favres. New Orleans is pumped, excited, talking repeat. The Vikings are historical losers as a franchise and despite his ONE super bowl ring, so is Brett Favre. He is also an idiot. BUT, I do not suspect Favre's season to take a parabolic shape, a bell-curve if you will. No, I expect he will throw for at least 8 TDs in this, the first game of the season and finish the season with 9 TDs and 20 INTs, hurting something around week 11 and dismantling his career starts streak.

Game: Minnesota @ New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans -4.5
Gutsy Pick: Minnesota beats the spread. I also think Minnesota will win this one. But don't worry saints fans, you won't lose many other games this season.

Now on to the Fantasy League:

1759ers (Guts' Team) v. Hellfish: In the most storied rivalry in Red Zone History, these teams meet for the 16th time. The 59ers own an 8-7 series advantage. Last year, the 59ers had Brees and cruised when he threw 6tds against the Lions. This year the Hellfish have Brees and Colston against the Vikings. Brees will throw 2 Tds and also 2 Picks. The Tds will be to Meachem and Bush. Mark it. 59ers roll. 71-60.

Robocops (Nums' Team) v. Old Rusty Nails: I hate Nums. Welcome to the league. Nails: 64-45.

Miami Sound Machine v. Roughnecks: In a rivalry that has been tested in the Fantasy Championship arena as well as the regular season, Miami owns a slight lead. They will widen that lead. 66-64.

Blood Money v. Kibbles and Vicks: Kibbles wins on the legs of Jahvid Best. Kibbles 58-55.

Fightendrunks v. X: Timmy Biggs smells like poop normally, but not this week. X on the Arm of Tom Brady. 71-63.

Sloptarts v. Hells Satans: I can't believe Hells Satans' draft "strategy". This bad a team would be expected in a 24 team league, not a 12 team league. Sloptarts 72-0.

NFL Predictions:

NFC East: 1. Cowboys. 2. Eagles. 3. Giants. 4. Redskins.
NFC North: 1. Packers. 2. Vikings. 3. Lions. 4. Bears.
NFC South: 1. Saints. 2. Falcons. 3. Panthers. 4. Bucs.
NFC West: 1. 49ers. 2. Seahawks. 3. Cardinals. 4. Rams

NFC Playoffs: #1. Saints. #2. Packers. #3. Cowboys. #4. 49ers. #5 Eagles. #6. Falcons.
Semis: Saints v. Falcons, Packers v. Eagles.
NFC Championship. Saints v. Packers.
Super Bowl Rep: Packers.

AFC East: 1. Patriots 2. Jets 3. Dolphins. 4. Bills.
AFC North: 1. Bengals. 2. Ravens. 3. Steelers. 4. Browns.
AFC South: 1. Colts. 2. Texans. 3. Titans. 4. Jags
AFC West: 1. Chargers. 2. Raiders. 3. Broncos. 4. Chiefs.

AFC Playoffs: #1. Colts. #2. Bengals. #3. Patriots. #4. Chargers. #5. Ravens. #6. Raiders.
Semis: Colts v. Ravens, Bengals v. Patriots
AFC Championship: Colts v. Patriots
Super Bowl Rep: Colts

Super Bowl: Packers v. Colts
NFL CHAMPION: Indianapolis Colts.

See you this weekend with the rest of the games.

The Return

2010-08-01T20:23:00.000-07:00

GUTS VS. NUMBERS WILL RETURN

SEPTEMBER 2010.

Football Season is Over- On to March Madness and The General Election

2008-02-13T13:06:00.000-08:00

The Giants won. After 33 Blog posts about how much the Giants suck. They won the Super Bowl. They beat the Pats, they ended the undefeated season. You will be greatly surprised if you see this Gutstar type another word about football before the college season starts.

That being said. We're back. And we're looking better than ever. We have a new blog up on young professionalism. Beingprofessional.blogspot.com. It's a subject that Nums and I are extremely qualified to write on. More qualified than pro football if you can believe that.

We're moving on to bigger fish. The Election is coming up in November, but before that Hope-fest we've got a little ditty called March madness. that is right, Nums and I will be handicapping the tournament so you can go into your office pool with whatever tool you feel better with (Guts or Numbers) and win. I believe due to the unpredictability of the tournament that I have an embarrassing advantage over Nums. However, as always, I expect him to show up early March with something ridiculously clever.

Til next time. Be Safe.

Explanations are in order

2007-12-28T07:22:00.000-08:00

Well, we haven't posted. What began as a gentleman's challenge has met great obstacles. What sorts of obstacles, you ask?

Here's a list of just 5.

Also, the blog will be changing its course. I'm sure Jimmy "Nums" will be updating you on that in the near future.

1. Christmas- for those of you who out there who don't celebrate this holiday known mostly for night prowling fat men and ham-presents, it's the one day (which takes up a whole month) where "Christians" celebrate the birth of "Christ" our lord "and" savior. It tends to have alot of ceremonies and rituals that can only be described as mandatory.

2. General Malaise- not a condiment. Rather it's a congenital disease found mostly in students and recent graduates. Symptoms include but are not limited to; Law and order marathons, watching slot machines, lethargy, uncontrollable bodily upheaval (coup de corpus) , paranoia.

3. Trying to enjoy football- Ever since the friendly challenge began between myself and Nums I have found myself too emotionally invested in the games to actually enjoy them. I made a conscious effort (not to betray you) but to remember what I love so much about the sport.

4. Super Christmas Eve Drinking Day- It's a tradition in the "Guts" household to get really plastered on Christmas Eve and wake up extremely hung over and fight while trying to be Merry. Fun times were had by all.

5. Jail- Yes, I bailed "Nums" out of prison. If I hadn't gotten there in time he would have inevitably become Mrs. Inmate #324612. Dressed in blue jeans, a backwards red cap, and a tacky Christmas sweater, Nums was forced to spend the night in the hoosegow. That's what friends are for.

That's good enough for now. I think it's important to still pick, even if our attitudes have changed. And to you, friends, be good to each other.

New England at New York (NFC)
Pick: Destiny: While I believe the Giants defense is a unit of merit and could potentially SLOW the Patriots, the Giants offense led by Eli "First Half" Manning, can not, I repeat CAN NOT win this game. And they WILL NOT. Witness the first undefeated regular season since 1972, and perhaps the best team in history (cheaters or not).

We'll see you in the playoffs.

Spread: New England -13: Take it. I have no reason to pick against them.

Good News/Bad News

2007-12-17T14:00:00.001-08:00

Bad news first: we didn't post this weekend. You already know that. Zach summed it up pretty good. At least I learned yet another weakness of the System: free drinks at a graduate student 'social mixer'. Oh, and young professionals drive Audis. Who knew?

Good news: I finished my stats project an hour late. I guess that's bad news, but really, it's good news, because I got to legitimately analyze the competitive balance in the nfl for a grade... hopefully a good one... probably a bad one. If you're bored, I can email it to you.

Bye week

2007-12-17T06:40:00.000-08:00

Week 15 turned into a bye week for both Guts and Nums.
I owe you an apology.

I apologize to all of my fans and to all zero of his fans. If you must know what happened, we took the week off citing general malaise. Our weekend consisted of being thrust into the realm of young professionalism. Nums spent his time getting deep into the heart of Green Bay, Wisconsin where he did invaluable playoff and climate research. I spent my saturday in Denmark exploring old caverns. It was a vacation that we both needed and it happened without warning for our fans, ourselves, and everyone caught in the wake.

As for monday night's game since I'm a hefty 0-2 this week, I'm going with the Vikings over the Bears on Monday night, covering the spread.

Quick Pick

2007-12-15T14:21:00.000-08:00

Time to make the saturday game pick. Unfortunately, I'm not near the System right now. But I can tell you that Cinci is gooder than SF, according to the numbers. Therefore, in lieu of the actual system, I can confidently say that Cinci will both beat the niners and cover whatever spread the boys in Vegas can come up with.

I'll get to the sunday games later

Saturday Game

2007-12-14T09:28:00.000-08:00

Okay so I'm not even going to address thursday's game between Denver and Houston. Wow. The blurb on cbs said at the top and I read no further "Sage Rosenfels and Ron Dayne put away Denver 31-13" Okay no thank you.

Saturday's Game:

Cincinnati @ San Francisco
Pick: Cincy: As Nums will undoubtedly agree, this is the worst game of the week. Maybe not the matchup of the two worst teams, that distinction belongs to Miami and Baltimore, but the worst because it sits alone and if you love football, you have to watch it. I will not. I'll just pick it.
Also, the 49ers just signed CHRIS WEINKE to be SHAUN HILL'S BACKUP. Jesus.
Spread: Cincy -6: They'll cover

The Week After Tomorrow

2007-12-13T13:11:00.000-08:00

Hello one and all.

In last week's unfinished post (some call it laziness, I call it avant garde), I made a few statements that I would like to revisit:

1. This is the make or break week for the System.

In my view, it was. It was week 14, and if the stats aren't firmly entrenched by this time, they never will be. By Week 14 a few teams are comfortable in their playoff chances, but most are jockeying for position. And the teams that don't have a chance haven't seen the brown-colored light at the end of the turd tunnel, so they haven't given up yet. As it turned out, this was a Week to Remember for the System (starring Mandy Moore).

2. Picking the winners will be easy

And how. For those keeping score, the System went 15-1 picking winners. Feel that chill up your spine? Yeah, that's the God of Numbers telling you "I told you so... and now I'm tickling your back." The only loss was my baby Bucs who were without a Garcia and who went up against a Texans team that is about 20 times better with Andre Johnson (avg. 15 yds/catch and 5 catchs/TD). Unfortunately, Andre hasn't played enough games to significantly influence the System (until this week). I guess the loss was just Karma getting back at me for all the Sage Rosenfels jokes I cracked (or as I like to call him: Thyme Guildenstern).

Anyway, I was very pleased with the performance, but as of now, I don't expect the System to perform that well on a consistent basis.

3. Picking against the spread won't be easy

And how. In the worst week so far picking the spread, I went 8-8. Notice how I said "I" went 8-8 instead of "the System"? It due to the biggest flaw I have uncovered so far in this latest version of the System: Me. I let my own beliefs such as "11 point victories aren't as common or predictable as you might think" cloud my judgment and bias the choices. I have yet to figure out how I can take the System's point differential and transform that into a quantifiable way to predict the actual point differential, but I will. It might have to wait for the offseason though, or at least Christmas break.

That said, I'll get to my thoughts on tonight's game at Houston. Notice the Andre Johnson stats I put earlier? Yeah, they serve nicely to justify my pick. As far as the System is concerned, it's nearly a gimme, with Denver having the slight lead. The bookies in Vegas also had the same idea. When I checked the spread, it already differed from teh one Zach used, but whatever. However, with homefield advantage and the impact of Andre Johnson, I will pick Houston to beat the spread. Mathmatically, the games can't get much closer than this. Now, if only that damn God of Numbers would stop trying to tickle my bum.

Week 15

2007-12-12T09:09:00.000-08:00

It is a sad time for guts fans everywhere as Nums has opened up an 8 game lead in the regular season with just 3 weeks before the playoffs. His system is proving to work very well straight up, not too great against the spread though, but who's counting? Week 15 is when I get hot. Also sorry that you had to hear my picks through him last week, there was no way to access a computer at the bar. Also, I apologize for picking Miami, I had a lot of eggnog and when I saw that on sunday I almost threw it up.

Thursday's pick:

Denver @ Houston
Pick: Denver: Selvin Young emerged last week as possibly the next in a long line of successful denver running backs under Mike Shanahan. Both teams are 6-7 and this is basically a playoff before the playoffs. Denver has the most to lose as many picked them to be playoff contenders before the season. Houston is having a year that no matter the outcome will look good and set the tone for '08. They've played alot of tough games and this will be another one.

Spread: Hou -3: Denver beats it with three of their own. 23-20

I'd give you Saturday's game too, but I don't have the line as of yet. I'll be back with picks on Friday.

SOYLENT GREEN IS MADE OF NUMBERS!!! (also, Zach's picks)

2007-12-08T21:57:00.000-08:00

Hello loyal reader(s),

Week 14, the week of hope. I truly believe this is the make or break game for the System. Picking the winners will be easy; picking the spread won't be. there are several games with a 10.5 point spread and a most others are 6.5 or above. That might not sound too shocking, but in the NFL, 11 point victories aren't as common or predictable as you might think (not to mention 10.5 point victories. In fact, no team has ever won by 10.5 points in the history of the game). Giggity.

MIA vs. BUF
STL vs. CIN
Good news: The Abomination of the Week this week isn't that bad. Bad News: it's still an abomination. I saw this game posted and I thought, 'could be worse.' But then I got that sinking feeling in my gut. That horrible feeling that makes me swear and drink heavily and go into my office at 3 in the morning and look up porn. I swear, the bad games make me do these things. CIN win and STL coverstl

DAL vs. DET
If faith in the lord gave your arm power, Kitna would be Kyle Boller. But he's not and his team sucks and so does Kyle Boller's team. In one of the more prescient points I have heard in sports reporting for some time, a person on Sportsline suggested that Wade Phillips was just a figure head to divert attention to Jason Garrett. And if there's one thing Wade Phillips diverts, it's attention. If there's two things, they're attention and hoagies. Hopefully he doesn't divert from the Lions' mid-game bible study.

OAK vs. GB
When I was in eighth grade, I lost the geography bee on this question: 'What is the largest city in Wisconsin?' I answered Green Bay because they had a football team and Milwakee didn't. I got the question wrong, not because Green Bay didn't have a team, but because Milwakee does actually have more people. But they don't have more Bret Favres. So I ask you, people, what do we really want our children to learn in school?

TB vs. HOU
What the fizzle? Tampa Bay is getting no respect. They lead the division when they have garcia; they win a big game with one of the McCowns. My rankings have them number 6 in the league, yet they're only given 3.5 points? Most of the experts on CBS are picking HOU. On principle, I can't name them the GOWER POWER POINTS PICK for the 2nd straight week, but I can name them the 'really good team that'll catch people by surprise in the playoffs because people are idiots and numbers are wise POINTS PICK' for this week.

CAR vs. JAC
I've said it before, I'll say it again: it still feels like these teams just joined the league and are playing with zero expectations. Every week is a joy to the people of Jacksonville and one of the carolinas (or both, or just northern georgia). In a perfect world, these teams would play every week and both would win every week. I'd pick a winner, but I stay away from anything born in the 90's (sorry reggie).

PIT vs. NE
The game of the week, I guess. NE's been making it fun for the past few weeks and Pitt lost to arizona. I really have no clue where this game will go. Whatever happens, I believe it will definitely be more revealing for Pittsburgh. New england already proved themselves this year, even if they do lose.

NYG vs. PHI
Zach left this weekend to visit friends. It's these kinds of weekends where you prove your muster. We, the people left behind, have to prove that we can still win the big game after our running leaves the game in the first quarter. I shared this with one of his roommates and he suggested that Zach was more like a quarterback. I conceded this, but only on the condition that that quarterback was Eli Manning. Sorry Zach, you're a big bitch with a good pedigree.

I'm sorry, but I'm tired and I'm looking at the rest of the games and I don't want to pick the GOWER POWER POINTS PICK right now. I'll pick this up later. In the mean time, here are Zach's picks phoned in just minutes ago:

Winner/vs. spread
Jacksonville, Jack
Miami, miami
STL, STL
Dal, dal
GB, GB
TB, TB
NE, NE
PHI, PHI
TEN, TEN
MIN, MIN
SEA, SEA
DEN, KC
CLE, CLE
IND, IND
NO, NO

Heart index: Heart sucks
Guts index: Guts suck
America index: Zach sucks

Week 14 Pickaroonies

2007-12-08T16:47:00.000-08:00

I've been busy with the end of the semester, so I haven't had much time to devote to this. Like last week, i'll have game previews up later tonight. As for 'Guts', he may be out of commission this week due to a emergency in D.C. Everything's alright, but he had to go down there and drink lots of beer with his college friends. I almost went with him, but he couldn't promise that I would get a handjob from a chick under a blanket in a room full of people. I guess you could call it a dream of mine...

2007-12-06T12:47:00.000-08:00

Finally, a Thursday game America doesn't care about. If the NFL would have scheduled all the games like this, they'd have a successful network. I'd write more on the subject, but I'm on the tail end of an all-nighter that mainly involved me eating a lot of fritos and switching between google image searches for Adrianna Lima in a football jersey and Joe Montana in a bikini. I guess it's a good thing that I'm rarely alone in my office.

Anyway, this game is tough to call. These teams have both had a tough past 5 games, with Washington the worse for the wear, emotionally and physically. However, they can still play respectable defense and move the ball better than the Grossman Express (Next stop: boosville), so the System picks them to win. But if it's a close game, I have to go with Chicago vs. the spread. Washington is 3rd worst team in the league in TO ratio and 5th worse in fg pct. That probably means something.

Week 14 begins Thursday

2007-12-05T18:07:00.000-08:00

Here I am, rock you like a hurricane. That's right, like a Scorpion this Thursday game is going to sting. Either Washington will lose their second home game in 11 days post Sean Taylor's death, or Chicago will continue to disappoint a season after they disappointed in the Super Bowl (Not you Devin Hester) Speaking of disappointments, after a 10-6 week. I trail Nums by 4 games after tough losses by New Orleans and Houston set me back. This week, I hope to make up a little ground.

Chicago at Washington

Pick: Chicago: As much as it pains me, I'm going with the Bears on this one due to a very guts-like trend. The Bears, after week 4 have gone win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win-loss... that means, even though I hate numbers, that it has to continue. The Redskins suffered a really tough loss last week against Buffalo. The game was emotional and it came down to a last second field goal. I think this game will do the same, unfortunately it may be a miss on the leg of my boy Sean Suisham. But who knows? Both of these teams are in a bad place, but at least chicago is winning as much as they're losing while Washington has dropped four straight.

Guts index: Temperature is dropping, take off those shirts and paint your chests, Guts.
Heart Index: Crazy on you
America index: Our nation's capital got some snow, no matter if it snows more or not, everyone on the field will be glad they aren't in Pittsburgh for a night game.

Spread: Washington -3: I wish I could pick the Skins to lose and to cover, but I cannot.

See ya sometime this week, I'll be sending in my article from DC actually if I can find time in between Christmas sweater shopping and setting the clocks back constantly to simulate the perfect drinking hour all day.

Maybe the last post ever

2007-12-01T20:11:00.000-08:00

When I was younger, I read the Book of Revelation and thought it could never happen. But, as I write this, the four horsemen are suiting up. West Virginia lost (Death). Ohio State didn't play (Famine). Missouri is losing (War). I forget what the other one is, but I'm pretty sure he's getting his horse out of the stable. Nonetheless, I think there's still sometime before the Rapture, so I might as well preview tomorrow's game before I am taken peacefully to my Heavenly home.

ATL at STL
I wish I could say this game was the abomination of the week, but, sadly, I can't (see below). The Greatest Show on Turf meets the Greatest Show In A Pit In Vick's Back Yard. I'm reminded of Aesop's Fable where the eagle (or falcon) picks up the ram and yada, yada, yada drops it. go with the falcons

BUF at WAS
I'll leave this one alone. That Sean Taylor story gets more and more outrageous every day. Never bring a machete to a gun fight.

DET at MIN
A few weeks ago, Detroit was the Cinderella of the System. But if there's one thing God (however you define Him) hates, it's false prophets, and Kitna is not looking too good in his prediction for 10 wins right about now. Neither is that receiver who thought they would get 12 or 13, especially since it's mathmatically impossible. I feel bad for the Ford family, nothing it going well for them now. Not like that Toyota family.

HOU at TEN
Tennessee, another former System Cinderella, has hit hard times as of late, but they still have a chance to grab the second wild card (or even take Jacksonville's for that matter), so expect them to try extra extra hard in this one.

JAC at IND
This year has been god-awful for Peyton Manning commercials. I mean, last year, I loved the 'laser-rocket' arm gag and 'Cut-That-Meat' killed me. But that 'pep talk' shit? and what the hell is Marvin Harrison doing in that water? He's surrounded by dolphins? First of all, that's not bad, that's delightful. If I was Peyton i'd drop the ball and go play with Harrison in the dolphin tank.

NYJ at MIA
Here it is, the Abomination of the Week. When I first thought of this game, I had to leave the room and get some air. A homeless man asked me if I was ok. I told him the Jets were playing the Dolphins, and he said "shit, what them dawfins doin in the air? shit." Sir, I agree. Dolphins-stick to the running game. I feel good things are coming from that Ricky Williams. I forgot to say this last week, but good luck Ricky, it's good to have you back. What's that? Oh... um... the Jets will probably win.

SD at KC
In the battle of cities with short abbreviations, I go with San Diego. A wise man once said something about 'San Diego' being spanish for a whale's something. I laughed until I heard that quote 50 times. Ever since then, I hated Napoleon Dynamite.

SEA at PHI
Talk about Super Bowl Hangovers. These teams are still got so drunk off their super bowl loses that they're still in Denny's waiting for their side of bacon. Instead of Gatorade, they should get pepto bismol.

SF at CAR
At SF, george seifert won two super bowls. At CAR, his third and final season was, according to Wikipedia (yeah, I research these), was a 'disaster.' Look for the panthers to win this for george...

CLE at ARI
CLE, you are the new Cinderella of the System, and that is well deserved. I don't know what it is about you guys, but it just feels good to root for you. The NFL promised you a team after the Original Browns got yanked to Baltimore, and it looks like you finally got it.

DEN at OAK
When distance runners are training for a competition, they often go to high altitudes to maximize their oxygen intake. Taking that into consideration, expect Denver to run laps around Oakland. They might play football too, but mainly laps. Lots and lots of laps.

NYG at CHI
In theory, these teams should be good. In theory. The ghost of Pat Summerall has been haunting the last half of every season for the giants for some time now. Grossman has been especially grossman esque this year. Don't be surprised if both quarterbacks get suspicious circular brown stains on the butts of their pants as the game goes on. Look closely.

TB at NO
I'm growing tired of picking TB as the Gower Power Points Pick ever other week, but it's a safe damn bet. They are constantly being put down. I don't care if Garcia is questionable, because there is one thing that isn't questionable: Jeff Garcia's unhuman drive to get his team to the playoffs. Not necessarily the superbowl, but the Playoffs, you bet.

CIN at PIT
Pittsburgh has had some unbelieveable loses this year, and I attribute that to Omar Epps being their coach. I've noticed that their loses often coincide with an episode of House where omar gets especially berated. But this week, he was pretty chill, so expect a normal Steelers effort here.

NE at BAL
Researching this game, I read Brian Billick's wikipedia page because I had once heard that he was an 'offensive genius' and I thought to myself, 'Really?' Maybe my senses are wrong. I mean, he does have the most wins in Team History (only other coach: Ted Marchibroda. Yeah,
that Ted Marchibroda). The most surprising thing I learned completely blew my mind, and I hope to God this is true. Brian Billick, after a disappointing pro career, turned to game shows. Game shows, as in more than one show. First, he was on Match Game, where after a 0-5 loss, a panelist quipped 'Failed at football, failed at match game, where will you go now.' He also appeared on an episode of Jeopardy and The Gong Show performing, I shit you not, a 'spider monkey' routine. Now that I think about it, this might be the fourth Horseman of the apocalypse...

Week 13 Pickaroonies

2007-12-01T16:02:00.001-08:00

Here are The System's picks for week 13, expect game previews to be up soon.

Week 13 (Guts Week)

2007-12-01T11:20:00.000-08:00

Ah, and we're back. Good start to the week. Brett Favre's ironman streak could for the first time be in jeopardy, but reports say he should be back next week. Positive news for Pack fans though, the running game is working and Aaron Rodgers might actually have talent. As for my picks this week I'm going to pull one over on you and not show the indexes that went into these picks, because I took the LSATs and I'm drained so I'll just give you the picks and spreads hard and fast. The indexes if you didn't notice are integral parts of my system but are in most part just a means for me to make fun of my narrow-minded counterpart.

San Diego at Kansas City
Pick: San Diego: The Chargers had a rough go the first time against KC allowing 24 unanswered points in the second half. The Chargers have hopefully realized that the playoffs are theirs to get in a weak AFC West and the Chiefs are reeling after a loss to the Raiders. The home team here will put up a fight and I think this will be closer than the experts think.
Spread: SD -4.5: I like Kansas City to beat the spread. 21-18

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Pick: Indy: The first time these two teams played I went with the home team and Indy handled Jacksonville well. Jacksonville has a realistic chance to win the division if they continue to play well on both sides of the ball. However, Peyton Manning is at that point in the season where he sets in a groove. His bad games are behind him.
Spread: Indy -7: This will be a tough physical game, Jacksonville will keep it close until the 4th quarter. Indy covers.

San Francisco at Carolina
Pick: San Francisco: There was a long time where I said San Fran was the worst team in the league and that may be true, but they found something last week on offense. They are healthy and Carolina is not, both teams are out of playoff contention, but one team is in worse shape.
Spread: Carolina -2.5: San Fran takes this one.

Buffalo at Washington
Pick: Washington: This is an emotional game due to the loss of Sean Taylor. Washington is at home and they want this one. It will be hard for Buffalo to overcome that.
Spread: Washington -6.5: Big spread for such an even matchup, but the emotion factor takes it way behind a ballgame. Washington covers.

Houston at Tennessee
Pick: Houston: Either one of these teams is capable of winning any game because of the brand of football they play. Tennessee's offense though will not be able to keep up with Houston's.
Spread: Tennessee -4: Houston beats it.

Atlanta at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis: After starting the season 0-8 the Rams won 2 in a row and lost a heartbreaker against the first place Seahawks. They proved themselves well enough even when hit with the injury bug to beat a weak Atlanta team.
Spread: OFF: St. Louis

Seattle at Philadelphia
Pick: Seattle: Philly played a hell of a game against the powerful Pats, and maybe just maybe they can win against anyone. One game with a pumped up AJ Feeley is not enough to run with this team. Seattle has found a new facet/wrinkle in their offense: The Passing game. They'll win through the air.
Spread: Philly -3: I think Seattle will beat this and then some as long as they can do better than the Pats did against the Eagles' middle of the field passing attack.

Detroit at Minnesota:
Pick: Minnesota: Adrian Peterson is back and the Vikings did fine without him. They'll do better than fine against a Lions team that has been disappointing since their fast start.
Spread: Minnesota -3: Cover

NY Jets at Miami:
Pick: Jets: This is the game to pick Miami. I just don't feel it, not in this gut. I wanted to, but I can't. I think the Jets will run the ball well and offset a reenergized Miami offense.
Spread: Miami -1: Jets beat it.

Cleveland at Arizona:
Pick: Cleveland: The Browns are on fire, they'll be in warm weather. This game could be a high scoring contest. I expect it to be. Shootout. Cleveland is a playoff team people.
Spread: Cleveland PK: Cleveland

Denver at Oakland:
Pick: Denver: Denver came off what might have been their toughest loss of the season and good for them they play the Raiders. Oakland needs to start thinking about the future which is what they did at the draft but a holdout negated that. While they're trying to find themselves, Denver is looking to catch San Diego.
Spread: Denver -3.5: Cover.

NY Giants at Chicago:
Pick: NY Giants: I really don't like picking the Giants after Week 9, but my gut tells me I should. This is what they do. They'll win this one and people will talk about them again, only to be horribly disappointed in the end.
Spread: NY Giants -2.5: They'll cover, but it will be ugly.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans: Tampa is playing well. But this is a game the Saints need and they're at home and everything points to an upset. Even though New Orleans is favored, this could still be considered a good win over a team that controls its destiny.
Spread: New Orleans: Cover, in a surprising rout. 35-20

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh scored 3 points in their win against Miami in a drenched monday night game. New sod was flown in to Heinz field and the Steelers will use it to their advantage. This one will be high scoring. The leg of solid Jeff Reed will win it.
Spread: Pitt -7.5: Cincy will beat this one. Close game.

New England at Baltimore
Pick: New England: The Patriots had an unexpected test against the McNabb-less Eagles. This is not a test. Kyle Boller has always been a joke, expect him to keep that up.
Spread: New England -20: New England will cover, score 56 points and reassert its dominance after a "humiliating" win against the Eagles.

There you have them. Gut Picks for Gut people. Stay Beautiful.

2007-11-29T15:21:00.000-08:00

If you've been a loyal follower of GVN, you've noticed that I've been pretty bad at updating in the last week. And because an series of unfortunate incidents, I wasn't able to pick as I would have liked last week: according to the numbers. Part of the blames goes to NFL.com for being bad updaters, but most goes to me. I know I let my fans down.

Which leads me to my next point: I don't think I have any fans. Everyone I've talked to has said they prefer guts... guts is their man... that's how they would choose games... That was both heartbreaking and disappointing. I couldn't help coming to this simple conclusion: they are all scared. Scared to do the math. Scared to realize that patterns are everywhere, and statistics matter. Scared that there isn't something inside of us (call it a soul, call it chi, whatever) that is supernaturally guiding us towards a secret knowledge of the future. Scared that maybe, just maybe, numbers control everything and all history has been and will be predicted by the laws of nature and we are powerless to exert any free will upon it. Scared.

But I could care less. Go on believing what you would like. I will sit here quietly eating my nachos (which, according to the laws of nature, are delicious), secure in my acceptance of the truth. So, without further ado, here is my (The System's) prediction for tonight's game:

As you can see, this game isn't even close. Both teams have excellent offenses, but Dallas' is more explosive. Both teams have good defenses, but Dallas' keeps opponents out of the endzone. Finally, with a slightly tougher schedule and homefield advantage (what's that Guts? you didn't think I included homefield advantage? of course I did, there's nothing more numbery than homefield advantage), the game is Dallas' to lose. GB is good, and they will be good, but they are a young team that isn't ready for the big time. I can't wait till next year, when modern science develops a way to attach Bret Favre's Head and Arms to aaron rodger's nimble body. That'll secure the team's future and open up a lot of cap space. What will happen to Aaron Rodger's head? I don't know, but I think Roger Goddell will find a good use for it (think Robocop).

This is shaping up to be a good week. Keep in touch, America.

Thursday Pick

2007-11-28T15:24:00.000-08:00

Hello everyone.
There is one game on Thursday that warrants a pick and it's a good one. Some writers are dubbing it "NFC Super Bowl" to them I say, simply, stop it. I'm not going to jump on that bandwagon, this is a huge game, 10-1 pack vs. 10-1 cowboys, but it's not the NFC Super Bowl. No that designation belongs to the NFC championship game where I am positive these two teams will meet again, probably with at most, 2 losses each. That's the big one. This one is big, but not as big.

But let's do the picking.

Green Bay at Dallas
Pick: Dallas: Saying this one was hard to pick would be an understatement. How do you pick this game? I have half a notion to wait til they play again (which they will) and just pick that one. Screw this one. You think this game is hyped, wait til then. Jeez. Anyway, here's the gut logic. Dallas is the home team. Despite what "Nums" says, that matters. Especially when Brett Favre, the greatest active QB and arguably one of the best ever HAS NEVER WON AT TEXAS STADIUM.
Here's what I say. Brett is breaking records every week it seems. But I think at least for the regular season, this one will have to be broken later. I think the Cowboys just played their most complete game of the season last week against the Jets and just keep getting better, while the Packers are suffering key injuries on a defense that has really helped them along. I think the Cowboys will win this one at home in what I hope is a shootout but expect to be more of a cautious calculating, intermediate passing game by both teams, before it explodes into a blast of a 4th quarter.
The Packers will lose this one, in fact, my gut tells me they have to in order to set up one very special stage. Picture this. The Packers lose in week 13 to an equal Cowboys team. They win out, Brett is angry. The Cowboys stay hot. Tony "Tex-arican-eskimo-lankan-ese" Romo avoids the stupid bonehead play bug in the playoffs and these teams meet again in what could be Brett's last NFC championship game, a shot at another MVP award and the biggest game of the season to that point, with all the records in hand and a shot to get revenge against the Cowboys and pick up that one huge win in Dallas that has eluded him. The Pack will win that one. But until then; it's the Cowboys' day.

Guts Index: I'll be stuffing myself with health food and beer (Health Month!)
Heart Index: Both these teams are playing with a lot of heart.
America Index: This is what we live for. We were brought up watching these teams win football games in the NFC. These are the glory days.
Spread: Dallas -7: Surprisingly big spread for this game. I'll say 34-28 in favor of the Cowboys. Packers beat the spread on this one.

My Fly is Down at Work But I Ain't Zipping It!

2007-11-27T13:59:00.000-08:00

Week 12 Tuesday Rewind

And I’m back baby. Sort of. 11-5 this week, brings the total to 38-22. Although, I think Nums over there picked the same games as me. So that would keep his lead at 2. Plenty of football left to be picking though. But, since he didn’t use his precious system, it seems he had to steal a little bit of mine, which is good anytime anywhere. In fact, I’m willing to go as far as to force him into early retirement or fine him like the Patriots for cheating. But I won’t, because I’m above that.

Other orders of business:

First, on an extremely sad note, Sean Taylor, strong safety for the Washington Redskins was shot during a robbery last night at his home. He was 24. Expect an extensive Guts Profile this week; he was one of the hardest hitting, gutsiest players ever to come from the U. CBS puts it best… His death was nothing short of “sad and unnecessary”

Moving on…
Sorry for not getting a guts profile up. With the holiday and a lot of stuff at work, it was tough, but I promise I’ll throw two at you sometime this week.

Week 13 is shaping up to really make our break some playoff pushes. Also, the Cowboys and Packers play in what should be the NFC game of the year for now (these teams will probably meet again)

That said, let’s get on to the gutsiest awards this side of the VMAs. The Tuesday Awards! Officially: The Gutsies! This week I’m giving out Just 6. The 7th is retired this week in honor of Sean Taylor

Participants in the slate of Thursday games are included.

Because I Just Love to Break Your Heart Award:

Winner: Jeff Reed

Starting off with the most recent award, Jeff Reed wins his first Gutsy for his game-winning field goal against the Dolphins. Not only was he the only one to score points on Monday night in awful weather (terrible, there was a bolt of lightning that must have hit right outside my window) he did it in dramatic fashion, handing the Fins their 11th loss of the season and spoiling the return of Ricky. (God hates Ricky Williams) It was sloppy, it was ugly. It was the lowest scoring game since 1993. Thankfully it’s over. But even with all the rain and sludge and slop, there was one moment of brightness that shone in the night sky, and that was Jeff.

Honorable mention: Ben Roethlisberger for his 18-21 performance through the air. Only 3 incompletions is impressive.

We Ended A lot of Embarrassing Streaks Today Award:

Winner(s): The Oakland Raiders

Great job team! You did it. I’ve been screaming about your potential for 22 years and this is how you thank me. By winning when I needed you to lose. But that’s good. Good for you, you did it. You beat Kansas City. Guts, tell them what they’ve won. Well Oakland you snapped 3 records of note. 1) and most embarrassing: You hadn’t (before sun.) beaten a division opponent AN AFC WEST TEAM!!! In 17 games! 17 games against division opponents and you hadn’t won any. Now you did. 2) You beat Kansas City (perennial mediocre team) for the first time in 9 games. 3) You had your first 100 yard rusher in Kansas City in 29 years! Justin Fargas, you have done something that Napoleon Kauffman and the other great Raider running backs of the last 29 years could not, run at arrowhead. Great Job raiders, there’s something to build on. Now put in JaMarcus.

The Chris Farley Memorial “Almost Heroes” Award:

Winner: A.J. Feeley and The Philadelphia Eagles

IMPRESSIVE. One of the best losses I have seen this year, and against the best team in the league at that. No one, not even the Colts impressed me as much as the Eagles did against the Pats. And let’s not stop there, A.J. Feeley, Kudos to you brother. You haven’t started a game since ’04 and you were 1-0 against the dynastic Pats coming in to this game. You were sharp, and you performed well. You let it slip away a little at the end, but you’re supposed to, you’re AJ Feeley. The Patriots didn’t really make many mistakes or turnovers, you just stopped them Philly, and you scared them good. Unfortunately, despite the Guts with which you all played, New England is still 11-0 and you are still at the bottom of the NFC East. Have no fear though, the Giants will see you soon.

Where in the World is Jeff Hostetler When you need him? Award:

Winner: Tom Coughlin and the New York “Football” Giants

I’m going to keep this description short and sweet. The Giants are a bad second half team, in fact, like the Madden Curse (you just don’t want to believe it exists) the Giants collapse in the second half every season (Thank you Jim Fassel, we’d like our clipboard back) like clockwork. They’re doing it again, just watch. While I usually don’t like to give out awards for this sort of thing, the Giants’ late season collapse in progress bears noting.

Honorable Mention: Jeff Hostetler

We Don’t Look Ahead, We Know The Other One’s Coming Award:

Winners: Brett Favre and Tony Romo

Reports say that Tony Romo was a sweet Mexi-talian from Wisconsi-Texaco who loved his Mama’s cooking and picking up spike (the neighbor’s dog) for swimming lessons. But there was something else Tony Romo was, he was a little Guata-rican-ese boy who wanted to be just like Brett Favre. Well, come Thursday, Nov. 29, Tony Romo will have the chance to be better than Brett (at least for a moment) on the field. The 10-1 pack play the 10-1 boys, both teams are doing better than they were expected to and everyone will be watching this game. So where does the award come in for week 12? Neither of these quarterbacks showed any signs in their games against the Jets and Lions that they were looking ahead. They didn’t experience a letdown despite the importance of the week after, they played that game like it was the most important when in actuality the next one was much more meaningful. That takes guts. Also for those of you keeping score, that’s Brett’s second Gutsy in 2007

How you gonna forget about me? Ain’t no other like me. I’m the best Award:

Winner: Chad Johnson

Smile for the camera Chad! Oh wait, we’ll smile for yours. Good work on Sunday. While the Titans were busy playing themselves out of contention in a tough AFC South/AFC you decided to bust out and do what you’ve been “trying” to do all season. I’m not going to put any blame on you for your lack of production. With a weak defense and the profile you have, you were the subject of a lot of bunch coverages and double coverages. You were quiet, well, quiet for you, lying in wait, planning your next touchdown celebration. This week you got the chance and you jumped on it. You had a career high 12 catches, in the process you broke the Bengals reception record, and you had 3 touchdowns. Big day! You got to celebrate, and with flair. Congrats Chad on your first Gutsy!

Thank you all for reading. Coming up soon will be my Thursday pick and the Guts Profiles of the weak.

Once again, let’s remember Sean Taylor for the player he was. I know I always drafted him 1st on my defense in Sega 2K5.

Be good to each other.

Random Number Generation

2007-11-25T06:32:00.000-08:00

Due to travelling and my parent's computer (windows 98, 56k modem, no excel, doesn't show the color red), i wasn't able to update the system this week. That said, I don't want to forfeit this week, so i'll make picks now by what I think the system would pick and if i can't decide, i'll use the only statistical method at my disposal, a coin flip:

SEA vs. STL (+3)
SEA wins, covers

MIN at NYG (-7)
NY wins, covers

NO at CAR (+2.5)
NO wins, doesn't cover

BUF at JAC (-8)
Jacksonville wins, doesn't cover

WAS at TB (-3.5)
TB wins, doesn't cover

HOU at CLE (-3)
CLE wins, covers

TEN at CIN (+1.5)
Tennessee for win and cover. This is the Gower Power Random Points Pick I Guess for week 12.

SF at ARI (-10.5)
ARI wins, doesn't cover

OAK at KC (-5)
KC wins, OAK beats spread

BAL at SD (-9)
SD wins, covers

DEN at CHI (-2)
Denver win and beat spread

PHI at NE (-25)
NE wins, covers

MIA at PIT (-16)
PIT wins, covers

Side note: I made $100 bucks last night playing the slots, so the coin flips are in my favor.

Week 12 Picks

2007-11-24T06:31:00.000-08:00

Happy Black Friday everyone, it’s time for the gutsiest picks in all of America. Thanksgiving day was very good to me. I had a great meal, a great nap, and I started 3-0, 2-1 against the spread, picking the only way I know how, with balls.

Week 12:

Washington at Tampa Bay:
Pick: Tampa Bay: Jeff Garcia is so close to the playoffs, the place he loves so much. The Tampa defense actually looks like Bucs’ defenses of old. This should be a good game to watch.
G: Jon Gruden is a good coach, he’s got guts.
H: 2 hearts: one for each of the TDs Jeff Garcia will throw in the 4th quarter
A: Americans love standing in lines on black Friday
Spread: Tampa -3.5: I’ll take the Redskins against this one.

Tennessee at Cincinnati:
Pick: Tennessee: Tennessee is coming off back to back losses, the Bengals are awful. While many argue (including myself at points) that the Bengals could just come out slinging any week, many are tired of waiting.
G: The Bengals are a gutless team.
H: 1 Heart: for the city of Cincinnati. Not only are they close enough to be considered part of Kentucky, their football team is one of the biggest disappointments of 2007.
A: This bud’s for you.
Spread: Tennessee -1.5: Tennessee will cover this one and continue to compete in the tough AFC South

New Orleans at Carolina:
Pick: New Orleans: The NFC South is bad. New Orleans and Carolina are 2nd and 3rd in the division with identical crappy records. While it’s Tampa’s division to win (or lose) New Orleans has the best chance of catching them because they have the better team. Carolina is playing with either an injured 40+ year old at QB or Fresno State Failure David Carr.
G: Creole!
H: 6 Hearts
A: Are there any Panthers in Carolina?
Spread: New Orleans -3: I’ll take New Orleans to play well and cover.

Houston at Cleveland:
Pick: Cleveland: This is a tough game to pick. Really this might be the best matchup of the weekend. Both teams are hot. The Texans are healthy and they haven’t lost when Andre Johnson is healthy. This is a scary game for any analyst. I’m going with the Browns to win. They are the favorite and they’re at home. Besides that, Cleveland has blew 4th quarter leads two weeks in a row. That doesn’t bother me, in fact, I think if anything it showed Cleveland that they can make mistakes and still win games.
G: Oh Phil Dawson
H: 1 Heart: one more win for Cleveland
A: Sit, Cleveland. Stay, Cleveland
Spread: Cleveland -4: I have to take the Texans against the spread here, if not for anything else but to save my ass.

At this point, I don’t have the time or the stamina or the liver to explain the indexes or why I picked the games. It’s more important to get them up and sexy for all of you to read.

Seattle at St. Louis
Pick: Seattle
Spread: Seattle -3: Very small spread for how well Seattle is playing, especially throwing the ball. Seattle will cover

Minnesota vs. NYG:
Pick: NYG
Spread: NYG -7.5: I like Minnesota to beat the spread on this one. And that’s guts

Buffalo at Jacksonville:
Pick: Jacksonville
Spread: Jax -7.5: The Bills saw what it was like to play a real team last week in New England, but I think they’ll bounce back strong however, Marshawn Lynch is still out. I think they’ll still beat the spread

Oakland at Kansas City:
Pick: Kansas City
Kansas City -6: I like Oakland against this spread, but KC will win outright even though Priest Holmes is thinking about retirement

Denver at Chicago:
Pick: Denver
Spread: Chicago -2.5: I guess this is technically an upset, Denver is playing better football, the gut goes with the rocky mountain gang.

San Francisco at Arizona:
Pick: Arizona
Spread: Arizona -10.5: Believe it or not I think the Cards will cover. The niners are the worst team in the league.

Baltimore at San Diego:
Pick: San Diego
Spread: SD -9.5: It’s hard to believe that the chargers and the ravens were 14-2 and 13-3 last year respectively, it’s a far cry, but… the Chargers are going to be a playoff team in a weak afc west. They won’t cover this one.

Philadelphia at New England
Pick: New England
Spread: New England-17.5: Wow the Patriots are fun to watch. They’ll cover. Sorry Philly, you’re next.

Monday Night

Miami at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pitt
Spread: Pitt -16: Way too big a spread, I like Miami against it.

That’s it for the week, I apologize for my hastiness, but my hangover is massive. Maybe I’ll edit today sometime. Oh and if you didn’t see, LSU became the latest victim in this year’s BCS hijinks. Take care of yourselves and the children.

SYSTEM ERROR SYSTEM ERROR

2007-11-21T07:33:00.001-08:00

Ok... This isn't the end of the System, but it is the biggest emergency in It's young, promising life. The NFL (I can't believe this is even happening) hasn't updated the stats on NFL.com from week 11... That's right, it hasn't updated its website. So that means, as far as the System is concerned, Randy Moss never caught four touchdowns, Pittsburgh never left poop stains in the bed and (this is the worst part) America didn't see Tony Romo smile.

I really didn't have a contingency plan for this, and I hope the stats go up soon enough. For now, though, I'll try picking the Thanksgiving day games and hope to God, with all his beardly goodness, that I don't have to pick the rest of the games like this. Luckily, the matchups on thursday are pretty lopsided.

Game Previews:

GB at DET:

I thought last week would be the week Bret Favre threw his arm out. I was wrong. It will be this week. That said, the spread is surprisingly low, so I have to go with GB.

NYJ at DAL:

If nobody will say it, I will: Wade Phillips is an old fat kid. He's just a fat kid that got bigger, but never grew up. He's like that little fat kid in elementary school who lit up as soon as he saw his mom packed an extra brownie for his fat-ass mouth. Watch him. After every touch down (and there will likely be several), he jumps up and giggles. He sits on the sidelines and smiles and craps while Troy Aikman's perma-backup Jason Garrett tries to prove that he really was a good quarterback who just never had a chance.

I must say, however, that for a fat man, Phillips has surprising dexterity in his jowls. The rest of his body? Not so much. God I hate him. Maybe it was growing up watching Ray Rhodes and Rich Kotite, but something doesn't sit well when I see a happy football coach. Regardless, I pick DAL all the way.

IND at ATL:

If there's one thing Zach likes, it's "Athletes playing on Turf in a Dome." And on Thursday, we will be graced by two teams with (according to him) great athletes playing in domes on turf, DET and IND. I quote: "it’s on turf. This favors playmakers. Indy has more" He said that last week, and i'm sure he'll say it again. And while I think Indy will win its game, I don't think they can cover a 12 point spread, even against a team whose fans chanted for Joey 'Did I Do That?' Harrington last week. Especially with a Peyton Manning that has thrown 7 interceptions in two games and only threw 160 yds against KC. They are in major injury trouble on offense.

Off all the weeks Michael Vick chose to enter prison, he chose the one before thanksgiving and possibly the only nationally televised Falcons game for the rest of the year. He might be the first person to voluntarily enter prison to avoid an awkward dinner conversation with his family.

Thanksgiving Day Picks

2007-11-21T06:21:00.000-08:00

Gobble Gobble...
The time has come. Every man and some women's favorite part of football season: getting drunk on Thanksgiving Eve with people you haven't seen in years (and probably didn't want to), waking up hungover to the smell of Thanksgiving Dinner being prepared by those brave souls who didn't go out Wednesday, and then sitting stuffed and happy, doped up on Tryptophan, watching football.

Hell, it's so popular, the NFL added an extra game recently. All in all, this festival is one day where we can all be happy. So here are your picks for the three Thursday games. If I get around to it I'll pick Sunday's games on Thanksgiving, but I'd expect them on Black Friday. As always, you can set your clock to these gut locks. The three proven indexes are gold. Be good to each other this holiday.

Green Bay vs. Detroit:
Pick: Green Bay: A Thanksgiving Day tradition unlike any other....at least as of late, the Lions have had the pleasure of getting torched by some of today's great quarterbacks. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are just two of the Qbs who have smoked the Lions secondary in the past couple years. This year, one of the greatest, most durable, most respected quarterbacks in the league, Brett Favre gets his shot at the Lions. I don't see this scenario spelling a victory for Detroit, and neither does my Gut. Although they're much improved, they're still new to this winning business (They've matched their highest win total in seven seasons under Millen) as you saw the last two weeks. Green Bay. I mean, my American heart-gut couldn't possibly pick against Brett Favre in what might be his last Thanksgiving Day game.
Guts Index (G): I don't know if anyone feels the same, but there's nothing like ripping out the inside of a turkey, then boiling and eating it.
Heart Index (H): 1 heart: Oh how John Madden's heart will pump this Thursday.
America Index (A): This country was founded when the Pilgrims befriended the Native Americans and ate maize, maybe there was Turkey involved, maybe not. Maybe we just hated Maize and then got pissed and won this country fair and square.
Spread: Green Bay -3.5: Look for Green Bay to win by 10

New York Jets vs. Dallas
Pick: Dallas: Another tradition, much like the first, Dallas gets to play at home on Thanksgiving. Jerry Jones stands on the sidelines, with his hands in his pinstripe pockets, fiddling his solid gold balls and jingling change loud enough for "Fat Kid" Wade Phillips to hear and come running with a smile on his face and get candy from Uncle Jerry. This is beautiful. More beautiful than Wade Phillips' jowls, however, will be the play of the whole Cowboys team. They're 9-1, Terrell Owens is playing "within the system" and Romo looks like he might be worth 67.5 million. I think the Cowboys will walk off the field 10-1.
G: Being labeled America's team and playing for America like the Cowboys have done this year. That takes guts. A strong gut rating percentage ratio of 4.75 for this one.
H: Right around the time this game starts (4:30) Everyone will be starting to or in the middle of getting into Thanksgiving dinner, it's where the heart is. Meanwhile, someone will be playing football, and our hearts go out to them.
A: This land is our land, this land is your land.
Spread: Dallas -14: It's thanksgiving! Give a little love. NY loses by only 13 and beats the spread.

Indianapolis vs. Atlanta
Pick: Indianapolis: While some may argue that Indianapolis is just a shell of the Colts B.P. 2007 (That's before the Patriot Game 2007) they are much better than Atlanta which is just plain sad. Poor team. If they have anything left to be thankful for after the start of this season, I applaud them. This game won't make anything better. In a tradition richer than any other on thanksgiving, the Colts will play ANOTHER game on the NFL Network.. and it's what we all look forward to sleeping through.
G: Michael Vick was on the show Guts starring Moira Quirk. Now he's going to be enjoying his Turkey that he no doubt had another Turkey fight against with the plan of eating the loser, I've got nothing.
H: 1 heart: For Bobby Petrino, who walked into this Atlanta job with high hopes which were quickly dashed. Now all he has left is knowing he can draft Brian Brohm with the 5th pick in the draft (after Miami, San Francisco, Oakland, and St. Louis) and rebuild Louisville
A: If there's one thing we love to see on thanksgiving, it's Peyton manning throw 6 tds. Do it again big guy!
Spread: Indy -11.5: They'll cover, it's time to shine.

Bonus pick: (11) USC vs. (7) Arizona St.
Raise your hand if you forgot about College Football on Thanksgiving! Big match-up that could shape the Pac-10 (especially with Dixon out in Oregon) winner of this game could very well be on their way to the Rose Bowl. I like Arizona St. to play Dennis Erickson football and win this one. USC's dynasty may be over (emphasize the may, they're a recruiting juggernaut). Word to the wise Pete Carroll, get out while there are still so many bad teams in the NFL who might need coaches with your resume.

Well there you go, enjoy the picks, print them out, fun for the whole family. Sit around your table and be thankful you have someone this handsome and this gutsy picking games for you. I know I'm thankful for what I have. I'm also thankful for comfortable pajamas, warm apple cider, and hugs. I'm thankful for Kevin Spacey movies, choreographed dancing, and steak knives. I'm thankful for backyard football, laser tag, and mittens without individual finger slots. Most of all I'm thankful for friends, family, and you, my fans. Stay warm, and be careful out there.

Mad Dog is Delicious or "The Tuesday Rewind"

2007-11-20T16:48:00.000-08:00

That was a tough week. I didn’t do so hot for those of you paying attention, and I let the teams who messed it up know how I feel.

This is my time to take a look back at the Week 11 that was. I start with those Denver Broncos. They made me look good in their 34-20 and helped me improve to a wildcard-esque 9-7 record for the week. They also became the hemorrhoid cream on “Nums’” red baboon ass. He’s a punk. But he’s winning. Overall I stand at 27-17 for the Great Pick battle and 88-61 on the season over 11 weeks. Seeing as I have the Broncos to thank, I can now safely say that Mike Shanahan has a soul. I will redeem myself though, on this, the week we stole America from those pesky Indians.

Moving on, this is where I look back and give awards for special or otherwise gutsy performances in an article I like to call “Awards” As a rule, I will try and give out no more than one award to a Patriot, but always one Patriot.

(Title and awards subject to change)

Week 11:

I’m Better Than You and So Is My Team So Watch This Award:

Winner: Randy Moss!

Come on down Randy, you and your coach, Smiling Bill Belichick probably watched your counterpart: recently resurrected and “team player”, Terrell Owens catch 4 Tds from the arm of Smiling Tony Romo in the Cowboys’ win over the Redskins (Happy Thanksgiving). Then what did you do? You went out and caught 4 Tds of your own… IN THE FIRST HALF. Randy, you are good, and you may do whatever you like with this honor.

Did You Just See That Field Goal Award:

Winner: Phil Dawson

Phillip Alexander Dawson, you deserve to be recognized. In the longest game ever played… on Sunday November 18th you kicked a field goal that bounced off the left upright (your left) and careened onto the crossbar/ground post in such a fashion as to confuse the hell out of the two referees standing underneath. It wouldn’t have been such a big deal if that kick wasn’t to send the game into overtime. An overtime in which you also kicked the game winning field goal defeating the Baltimore Ravens (I like to call them the old Cleveland Browns) and giving your city which is so accustomed to losing, another win. Congrats.

Adrian Peterson Ran His Legs Out So Stop Talking About Him and Look at Me Award:

Winner: Chester Taylor

Oh Chester, look at you run. You are so graceful, and frankly I am surprised at how graceful. You ran over, around, and through a good (despite what “Nums” says) Raiders defense to the tune of 202 total yards and 3 Tds, while Adrian Peterson watched from the sidelines with his league-leading stats and incessant media attention. I applaud you for going out and still playing even though you are a Minnesota Vikings running back (which has meant nothing since Robert Smith retired) and A.P. is hotter than Christina Aguilera when she broke onto the scene. Good work out there, you made a lot of heads turn. I guess you can carry a team, which makes the Vikings all that more impressive. Now you just need a quarterback (so quick to dispel those Jeff George Rumors?)

I Put My Faith In God and Made a Big Prediction But Now I Lay Prostrate On The Floor Staring Up At The Ceiling Sucking My Thumb And Crying While I Rethink My Decision To Make Said Prediction Award:

Winner: Jon Kitna!

Congratulations Jon, you win my favorite award of the week because it’s just so darned fun to say. Two weeks ago you were 6-2 and on top of the world. You’re a bald born again and you said God was with you and your team and that your bunch of Holy Crusaders were going to win Ten game. But oh no! You’ve lost 2 in a row. One to crappy Arizona and the other to those Second Half Whiz Kids in New York. You now sit at 6-4. That means you have to win 4 out of 6 to make good on your prediction and make sure Yahweh is pleased. Good Luck, because if you keep up this kind of play, someone’s in line for Purgatory.

We Can’t Tackle Either Award:

Winner: The Cincinnati Bengals Offense

For 11 weeks the world watched and wondered how a prolific quarterback from California with his star wide receivers and strong running game could be last in a division that includes Cleveland. We all blamed the defense in Cincinnati, which don’t get me wrong, still blows. But Hey!, when Carson throws a rare interception you have to do something after, stop the defensive back. Sunday, Carson threw two interceptions to Antrel Rolle and they were BOTH returned for a touchdown, which means your defense did enough to win, but because you dropped the ball, you did enough to lose. Good work, I guess you can’t tackle either.

Not Only Am I The Best, I Very Well Could Be The Best Forever Award:

Winner: Brett Favre

For the 3,000th week in a row, Brett Favre completed 70%+ of his passes and three 3 Tds. This, however, was a significant game because it was, in fact, the matchup of the oldest starting quarterbacks in NFL history (I believe both are around 280 dog years old). Brett, you took the field opposite former Miami Hurricane Vinny Testeverde and just chucked that pigskin all over the field completing passes to the right team, which Vinny could not do. Granted he’s older than you, but the way you played made me feel that if you do decide to play until your Vinny’s age, (and if I judged your hatred for backup Aaron Rodgers correctly, you will), you’ll still be just as good as you are now. You’re having a great season, and with Fightin’ Irishman Ryan Grant (The Prize of South Bend, Ha) actually gaining yards on the ground, you could conceivably lose to the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Oh! So, If We Plan On Contending For a Super Bowl Ring, We Have To Win the Easy Games? Award:

Winner: The Pittsburgh Steelers

You thought you could get away with it didn’t you Pittsburgh. You thought you could make it all the way to the playoffs without playing anymore, well except for the game against New England. You thought you could just sit back and watch until the games “mattered.” Isn’t that right Ben Roethlisberger, with your tight pants and your motorcycles? Bah! Wake up! I’m talking to you Mike Tomlin (Yes, he does play Forman on the Fox Drama- House). You have made a city that LOVES its team and its history forget about Bill Cowher. You have prepared your team week in and week out to play well-rounded football, yet you lost to the Jets. The Jets were on a 6 game losing streak. Oft-injured and general all-around disappointment Chad Pennington was replaced by TV Weatherman Kellen Clemens and they beat you? Hmm…something has to changed. Pittsburgh, you are a team that has a good chance to spoil the Patriots perfect season later this year and cause some real noise in the playoffs. Take a good look at yourselves and stop losing the easy ones.

That’s it for the awards and that’s it for this little article. I stopped at 7 this week because too much of a good thing is bad. I’ll be back tomorrow with my weekly picks. They’ll probably be up early because god knows I’ll be drinking for as many hours as I can stand on Turkey Eve (Hi Indians). In some way shape or form you will get your Gut Picks that you all love and look forward to.

Until next time, Fasten your seat belts, it’s a jungle out there.

Monday Math Review

2007-11-19T09:58:00.000-08:00

When I first created the System (or when the System chose chose to reveal itself to me, depending on how you look at it), I realized that It was not all that different than a newborn wildebeest. Were It not able to stand up and run within a few minutes of Its life, there was a clear chance our baby System would not survive for long in the wild. But run it did. With two-week totals of 17-11 picking the winners and 9-5 against the spread, this fledgling wildebeest turned into a fertile, red-assed baboon presenting itself to the entire jungle, saying, 'Look at my red ass, and pick Dallas to win but Washington to cover the spread in week 11.' I thank the Lord (or the System, again depending on how you look at it), that I listened. Before Monday night's game in denver, I am 12-3 picking the winners and 10-5 against the spread. And while the competition is by no means over, I get the feeling that the System is like Rifiki in the Lion King, raising young Simba (me) up, blessing me in front of all the animals with his red-assed monkey magic.

For now, however, it's up to Tennessee to be either the icing on the cake or the hemorrhoid cream on the System's swollen monkey's ass (check the spelling on hemorrhoid).

Notes from the Underground

2007-11-19T06:42:00.000-08:00

As I sit here this morning, drinking my second Pepsi and letting law cases and letters pile up on my desk, I come to you with a heavy head and humble heart. It has been a rough 24 hours wondering what went wrong with Sunday's picks. Maybe "Nums" is right, maybe the league can be reduced to a formula, and that going on extensive knowledge and guts is wrong, or maybe, just maybe, and this is much more likely... I put too much faith in some gutless wonders this weekend, and they should know about it. I'll let you in on a little secret, my gut is two things, accurate and fickle and if wronged, can really stir up some ill feelings. That's the good thing about this system though, it's human, it's fallible, it can admit when it's wrong, but in this case, it can also admit when it's been WRONGED. There are a couple of teams this Sunday that made their week 11 games look like a preseason game or worse, a dolphins game. I try and make a habit of doing what I do, and doing it well. I encourage the following teams to do the same.

Pittsburgh, I don't know what to say to you. With Indy's recent struggles, you are the second best team in the league, act like it. You have New England coming up and you aren't ready.

Oakland, Cincinnati, New Orleans... You're in a world of pain in this writer's eyes. Oakland, I had faith that your defense could do enough against a veritably empty Vikings team to win. Yet, I don't know if you noticed but Chester Taylor ran all over you. And Cincinnati, you just keep perpetuating the myth that Arizona can win football games on things other than Neil Rackers field goals. Who Dey? Dey suck. Oh and how the Saints go marching out. Way to get everyone's hopes up with your 4 straight impressive victories only to lose to St. Louis and Houston back to back. Oh no, Andre Johnson is back. YOU MADE IT TO THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP LAST YEAR! Remember? Maybe you don't.

Chicago: I'm going to just set you aside for the time being. You have one of the gutsiest quarterbacks in Bloomington South High School's rich history under center again and you let it slip away. Granted, Seattle is a good team, if they were in any division but the NFC West though, they might be under .500.

Detroit: Wow. You're having your best season in 100 years, you've got athletes all over the football field and you can't beat a reeling giants team on your home dome AstroTurf when you need to most? You're in a conference where the last wild card team may finish 8-8. A division that is led by Brett Favre and a good looking Packer team. It would be a big win for you on Thanksgiving, make us all believe again. Kitna, make a deal with your God because Favre has already made one with the devil and it has blessed him with eternal youth and throwing power, you at least need some finesse.

San Diego: You may be off the hook because Norv Turner is your coach and he can ruin anything, even a 14-2 team.

That's it for now. It's tough love, but love nonetheless. I'll be back soon with praise for those good, gutsy performances of the weekend. Until then, keep dreaming, world.

Profile of the Week: Week 11

2007-11-16T15:37:00.000-08:00

The Mike O’Malley Memorial Guts Profile of the Week:

Rex Grossman

Most of you know Rex Grossman as just another in the long line of disappointing Chicago Bears’ quarterbacks. You see him as the man who rewrote the book on inconsistency last year at the quarterback position, and still won games. The man who had to rely on a stellar defense and an extremely patient coach to get him to the Super Bowl. The man who, after years of battling minor injuries and fending off obsessive fans, blew that big Super Bowl game like he wanted something from it. Call me blind, but I see someone else.

To me, he is a man, an ordinary guy with dreams, hopes, and laugh that makes all the women say, “what’s he laughing at?” He captures attention like a third boob, but that doesn’t mean he needs it. He’s normal, like you or I under center. You’re probably thinking...”Normal? Are you an idiot?, Did you forget about his pedigree?” YES, YES, NO. You’re right, he has one, but it’s all a crock of shit. I mean, sure, he and his golden arm were forged in the mighty Swamp of Gainesville, Florida, at Spurrier U. Manufacturers of NFL QB success stories like Jesse “The Bachelor” Palmer, Danny “The White” Wuerffel, Chris “Sprang-A” Leak, and John “Mr. Florida” Reaves. But Rex? He doesn’t buy into that hype. That’s just where he played college ball, not where he came from.

After his "season-saving" performance last week against the Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders, Rex gets to start this week after losing his job to Brian Griese, trying to win it back for good and reclaim some glory. Alot of people will probably say, “Who Cares? He’ll just blow it again, what’s one moment?” Well folks, for Rex, it’s everything.

And I’m going to tell you one reason why.

Rex Grossman, from small-town Bloomington, Indiana, son of Jewish parents Daniel and Maureen Grossman, has been coming from behind his whole life. (*Note* he matured into a body with just 205 bones/206 (he’s missing the “Quitter” bone.) I’m going to share with you a few things about Rex, and maybe it will change a little something inside you, or maybe it won’t. But at least you’ll know.

I could tell you about how, in March of this year, Rex had the distinct honor of accepting the Ed Block Courage Award, an honor rewarded to the NFL players who best exemplify sportsmanship and courage on the field. But I won’t. No I’m going to take you back, before the Swamp. At Bloomington South high school, Rex threw for 7,518 miles and 97 tds in his prep career. Rex means king in Latin. But even before that, Rex was just a boy with a star in his eye. Years before he stepped foot on the NFL gridiron, he was known as little Rex. Some close to Little Rex still call him this because they remember the days when he wasn’t throwing as many INTs as TDs. They remember his father dressing him up in a shirt and tie and bringing him to the eye clinic, where he would carry patient files to and from the reception desk in both arms like firewood. (He carried firewood in the winter.)

The ladies who worked for his father Dr. Dan as receptionists were all winks and smiles when they’d see the little charmer. They doted over the Bears' future quarterback. ''What's your name?'' they would ask. The doe-eyed Rex would roll his eyes in exasperation. They knew darned well what his name was. He had told them a dozen times already. “Wex Waniel Gwossman da turd,'' he would say proudly, and the office would erupt with laughter all over again.” (He still talks like that)

Despite the glitz and glamour of being an NFL quarterback, Rex still remembers his roots. A good ol’ boy who could carry a load. That’s guts. According to an equally gutsy Indiana guy Bob Knight, “'He's just a really, really good kid from a great family and that combination has enabled him to do what he has done.”

Rex’s parents bought a 100 acre horse farm in 1983 and started raising Arabians a year later. Rex had little interest in these foreign horses and would often sneak out into the parking lot while his sisters were riding and throw the football back and forth to himself, running underneath all of his errant passes. He would then return to the track and lie to his sisters and pretend he saw the whole race. That takes guts. Rex was the star quarterback for the Arabian Cowboys, his youth football team, and that meant he had to practice, all the time. He practiced at church by slipping his homemade playbook in between hymnal pages and singing the “Run and Gun.” He practiced at the dinner table passing the family style green bean casserole to his sister Ashley using both hands to develop forearm strength. He even practiced at practice. Despite all of this footballin, Rex also had other passions; he played youth baseball and basketball. He wasn’t very good at those sports either but he had heart. He would often punish himself for bad performances by waking up at 5 am for 5-mile runs and spending 2 hours at the batting cages improving his rigid swing. He was a worker.

Even before he was a quarterback and a mediocre shooting guard/shortstop, he was a seventh-grade boy. Since that grade, 4 years before he hit puberty, Rex always had a summer job. He worked on the farm and was even a cable guy for the summer, throwing cable lines to the wrong people in preparation for a dazzling pro career. Also, Rex was a great student. He had to hide his grades from his father, who wanted him to concentrate on football and not on school. His grades were good, and it took guts to keep them that way. As he continued to balance work and play he grew into the quarterback you now know. He breezed through high school with incredible stats and teammates who respected him. They knew he would win the big game for them. (They all now work in maintenance) He was named the top Midwest prospect and as you all know went on to the University of Florida and graduate with honors with a Nature Appreciation major and a minor in the field of Guts.

Rex Grossman is a man who constantly walks on the edge of confidence and humility. He is a man with limited athletic talent and infinite perseverance. So when Rex takes the field this Sunday as a starter once again, look at him with this new knowledge in the back of your mind, and see him for what he really is, a fighter.

Them Numbers Don't Lie

2007-11-16T07:41:00.000-08:00

Hello one and all,

First, I'd like to welcome members of Zach's fantasy league. I know you've had to suffer for years with his low-brow, sophmoric attempts at football comedy, and I feel your pain. Hell, there were two weeks during the summer where he was completely unfunny. It sucked... for everyone.

So relax, fix yourself a Martini, and have a dignified laugh as I show you some classy humor and tell you all you need to know about some important games this week. (FART!!! just kidding, but seriously folks)

OAK vs. MIN (-5)
Minnesota is without Adrian Peterson, big whoop. Oakland is without a football team. Zach: "They have one of the best defenses in the league." Me : "Yeah, cuz they aren't ACTUALLy playing games." You can't get yards gained against you if you don't field a team. Minnesota by default. Since I'm not sure how that works out score-wise (would the game be 0-0?), I'll go with Oakland vs. the spread.

STL vs. SF (+2.5)
Talk about all quiet on the western front, something amazing needs to happen for me to care about this game. So far, the only thing amazing is the awfulness San Francisco's offense. They are averaging 133 passing yd/g, and I rounded up! The only thing that can help them at this point is if they take off the starting 11 and put in 11 George Seiferts. Instead, it seems like they put in 11 Bill Walshes (yeah, I went there). STL all the way.

NE vs. BUF (+16)
Did you watch "Batman, the Animated Series" after school growing up? Well, I did. There's an episode where Edward Nygma is fired from his job, thus throwing him into the downward spiral from which he arose as The Riddler. Long story short (actually 22 minutes, minus commericals), he torments his old boss. And while batman saves the day, the boss is so freaked that he locks every door and window in his house and sleeps with a shotgun every night. That's what I imagine Don Shula does now that he pissed off the Patriots. I say pick 'em until they prove us wrong.

TB vs. ATL (+3)
I just want to set the record straight. That little bit Zach said about Jeff Garcia was my bit and he delivered it horribly. I originally said that, from my experience as an Eagles fan, Jeff Garcia, once given the chance, will do everything in his power to get his team to the playoffs as soon as possible. AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. Whatever happens then is up to chance, cuz he doesn't care at that point. Last year, it took him around seven weeks. This year, he was given the whole season but Jacksonville and Detroit really threw a cog in his plans. Last week's game against Arizona, however, proved that he's still playing for late december/early january baby!!

Without a doubt, TB is the GOWER POINT POINTS PICK for Week 11.

KC vs. IND (-14.5)
I was very suspicious of Indy going into their game against the Patroits, but last week's game was a complete fluke. Basically, if Manning makes mistakes, they have a good chance of losing, especially with their beat up defense. Unfortunately for the league, the numbers are telling me that won't happen all that often. If they get hot near the end, watch out. If they don't, punch the Steeler's ticket to foxboro. Also, Herm Edwards yells at the elderly without reason. Minus a healthy Marvin Harrison, KC beats the spread.

CHI vs. SEA (-5.5)
Oh, Chicago, I enjoy you being in the league. What crazy adventures will you take us on this year? Basically the same as last year, with the addition of Bitchy Urlacher. Brian 'Arthritic Back' Urlacher. Brian Ur-Stupid-How-Would-You-Like-It-If-I-Hit-You-In-Your-Backer. On the otherhand, they're playing Seattle. Seeing as Shaun Alexander is splitting time with Maurice Morris (who may be a french mime, for all I know), the Bears might have a chance. SEA to win, CHI vs. Spread.

TEN vs. DEN (-2.5)
Tennessee is the Cinderella of the Gower Power Points System. Their team is anchored in arguably the most balanced offense in the league (158 yds/g passing, 140 yds/g rushing) and a defense that stops the run and keeps points low (17/g). Going against the worst rushing defense in the league that gives up 26 pts/g, I almost made this my Gower Power Points Pick of the week. Instead, I will make Tennessee the GOWER POWER POINTS PICK OF MONDAY.

I know there are more games out there, so I'll summarize quickly:
Miami isn't the worst team in the league, but neither is Philly
The NY Jets should change their name to the NY Bi-Wing propeller planes. PIT
The ratio of times Tony Romo smiles to the number of times someone talks about Tony Romo smiling= 1:1. And he smiles a lot.
Although I didn't see it, I'm pretty sure someone on ESPN made an uncomfortable 'San Diego is FIREd up' comment and that's why I don't watch ESPN.
I couldn't figure out how to mathmatize the Giants' late season nosedive habit, so I'll give them this week.
It's Week 11 of the my "Countdown until Bret Favre throws out his arm." I thought it happened against the Chiefs, but I had to put away the party hat and streamers. Maybe this week.
Arizona shoots themselves in the foot.
Show me something, New Orleans
And finally: Cleveland.

Trust me, them numbers don't lie.

Gut Picks

2007-11-15T14:30:00.000-08:00

People who like numbers and formulas use tables. I'm not doing it. It's not because I don't know HTML (which is basically math) or because I couldn't get a table in this stupid box, it's because only spreadsheets/tables are unamerican, they don't let words roam free like the sweet sweet buffalo this land was built around. So here you go. My picks.

Arizona at Cincinnati: Cincy: I like the Bengals to win 2 in a row for the first time this year. I don’t care who QB’s for the Cardinals, they aren’t Carson. Kurt Warner is 45 and wears gloves. Tim Rattay used to be a 49er not named Montana or Young.
Guts Index (G): 10, its always a ten.
Heart Index (H): 3 hearts: One for each of Cincy's offensive weapons
America Index (A): U.S.A. all the way
Spread: Cincy -3: Count on the Bengals to cover. I think if the Bengals win the game, which they will, they’ll win by at least 7

Cleveland at Baltimore: Cleveland: The Browns are playing good football. Even in a loss to Pitt they dominated the first half. Baltimore is not good. Boller will probably start, if they’re smart? He sucks. Nothing is going to help the Baltimore offense.
G: Superguts
H: 1 heart: and it goes out to McNair. Retire! You're broken.
A: Go for the Gold!
Spread: Cle -3: Once again, I like Cleveland to do their part, I see this game ending somewhere around 20-9 in favor of those Browns.Also, Romeo Crenel is great at Pac-Man

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Tampa Bay: Atlanta had a big win last week against Carolina. Tampa Bay is coming off of a bye week and should be rested enough to handle whatever Blow-me Harrington has to “throw” at them. Seeing how Jeff Garcia LOVES making the playoffs, it's time for him to push.
G: Sure as rain, gut pick
H: 2 hearts: for each of Jeff Garcia's wife's boobs. PLAYMATE!
A: For those about to rock... We salute you!
Spread: TB -3: Spreads are stupid. Like Atlanta, if it loses is gonna lose by 3? I think it’ll be close, but less than 3? If it was TB -4, then we’d talk. TB

New York at Detroit: Detroit: The Lions are 4-0 at home. After this Eli Manning INT-fest, they’ll be 5-0. I know, I know, ARZ beat them, but Jon Kitna has heart.
G: Henry Ford Guts
H: 4 hearts: 1 for each Eli Manning INT
A: God built America and God built the Lions
Spread: NY -3: Well, looks like the Giants can’t cover if they lose. Another 2nd half collapse starts now, and last week. Jim Fassel lives.

Miami at Philadelphia: Philly: They’re the home team, they’re the favorites, and they’re playing the Dolphins. John Beck will lose his first start. Take that Mormon.
G: Spill your Guts Pick- Don Shula, watch your legacy die.
H: 2 hearts: for each B in McNabb. 3 TDs
A: Spacious skies pick of the week
Spread: PHI-11 Oh this one will be closer than Vegas thinks. John Beck will provide a much needed improvement at the Q position. MIA

New Orleans at. Houston: New Orleans: What the hell was that game against the Rams? I’m ignoring it.
G: Katrina Survivor Guts
H: 2 hearts
A: 7
Spread: HOU-1: ? New Orleans

Carolina at Green Bay: Packers: Brett Favre vs. ? That’s right, very easy pick.
G: Brett Favre Guts
H: 1 heart: Vinny Testaverde’s is about to give out
A: 43: # of Presidents of the United States and of the free world
Spread: GB -10 Green Bay beat the Vikings by 34. I think they can handle this spread.

Oakland at. Minnesota: Oakland: Adrian Peterson is out, and we all saw what happened last week when he was out. I think if the Raiders are going to pull an upset, it’s here. What alot of you may not know is I'm a raiders fan. A proud one at that. But I'm not crazy,
their defense can win them games.
G: 14
H: 2 hearts: For Each sport Bo Jackson played
A: Free public education
Spread: MN -6.5 OAK against the spread on this one, against the odds, and maybe against better judgment.

Kansas City at Indianapolis: Indy: Larry Johnson’s out again and it’s on turf. This favors playmakers Indy has more. Alot more. I think Harrison might be back, if not, they'll still win.
Tony Dungy is the classiest coach out there.
G: Bloodsport
H: 2 hearts: For the # of losses Indy’s losing streak stops at.
A: Ice Hockey, the good kind.
Spread: IN -14.5 This is a huge spread, I want to pick KC but Indy’s gonna come out firing

San Diego at Jacksonville: San Diego: Huge win last week for SD, I like them to keep rolling. Nothing else to say.
G: Kettle Drums
H: 31 hearts: # of TDs LT should have by now.
A: Steve Perry
Spread: JAX -3 SD: I’m beginning to think James uses the spread to pick how he really wants to. You have no heart Gower

Washington at Dallas: Dallas: They’re good, probably the class of the NFC. We'll find out very soon when they get the Packers. But for now Smiling Tony Romo is on Cloud Nine.
G: Kurtis Fleming Guts
H: 26 hearts: # of Tony Romo Teeth that show when he smiles
A: America’s Team
Spread: DAL -11 DAL: Big spread, Big win at home

Pittsburgh at New York Jets: Pittsburgh: With Indy’s recent woes, this is the second best team in the NFL. They play well on all three sides of the ball.
G: Mangina
H: 1 big heart for NY. You’ll win something soon
A: 24 Karat Pick
Spread: PIT -8.5: Pittsburgh will cover. I live there. I'll make sure it happens

St. Louis at San Francisco: St. Louis: San Fran is the worst team in the NFL
G: Who cares?
H: “
A: “
Spread: STL -3: STL

Chicago at Seattle: Chicago: Grossman is back. Hmm… surprise? Anything to get the fans on his side again so he can let them down
G: Gut Rumbler
H: 1: My inevitably broken one. Thanks Rex
A: America loves to hate Rex, He's like the President of the United States of Chicago
Spread: SEA -4.5 CHI: Bear down Chicago Bears.

New England vs. Buffalo: New England: It doesn’t matter if it snows 10 feet in Buffalo, Brady will still throw 3 tds. Bye week to prepare? Don Shula’s comments? Come on! Also I heard A-rod might sign with the Pats.
G: Easy
H: 1: Slow beater, no problem
A: Pats are red, white, and blue
Spread: NE -14.5 You want me to say BUF. No. NE

Tennessee at Denver: Denver: It matters if it’s cold in Denver. Vince Young is having trouble, gulp* throwing the football. Denver’s coming off a must win, and playing a will-win. Unlike my colleague I believe home field counts for something.
G: GUT CHECK 2
H: Mike Shannahan has no heart
A: Trustbusting!
Spread: DEN -3 I’ll take TENN. This will be a patented Elam field goal victory.

There you have it. Everyone has guts, I just use them to make winning picks.

First Post! (unless zach posts before I finish typing this)

2007-11-15T12:07:00.000-08:00

Here it is, Ladies (are any ladies reading this?) and Gents (are any gents reading this either?), the week 11 Guts vs. Numbers NFL Picks and the first week on the internet, for all to see.

I'm not really sure how we're going to do this, but I'll start by posting my picks (go figure). We'll probably add game previews and arguments for/against Zach being here in the coming days. We'll also probably add imagined monologues between Zach and his Pacino-like boss. Hoo-wah.

Guts

2007-11-15T11:59:00.000-08:00

It's week 11 in the NFL, and week 2 of the Great Pick Battle between myself and the Gutless Wonder, JG and his number system. Each week we bring it hard and fast, and each week we get closer to crowning a champion. Early on, I have the lead picking 18-10 in the pick battle and 79-54 through 11 weeks. This week I'm debuting my table, complete with my 3 proven index ratings (Guts, Heart, America)
and featuring a new wrinkle, my picks against the spread, which will no doubt truly test what my guts are made of. The plan is simple, make better picks and prove to my "worthy" opponent once and for all that you don't need fancy math and complex formulas to pick games, just good old fashioned American Heart-Guts. Stay tuned.