Friday, September 24, 2010

Guts stands Alone

Where the hell is Nums?

Here are my picks:

Red Zone:
1759ers v. Roughnecks: Our teams are absolutely even in my mind. Our quarterbacks will cancel each other out, but I believe I have a SLIGHT advantage at RB. 1759ers 67-66.

Fightendrunks v. Old Rusty Nails: I don't know what to do. I hate Tom, but Biechy can't seem to find a way to win. Nails 71-62

Blood Money v. Danny's Donkies: The name change didn't help last week and despite my predictions that Dan would return to glory, he's doing his best to make me wrong. This week, he makes me look goooood. Donkies 80-47.

Hells Satans v. Kibbles and Vicks: I agree with Teada that John will keep it under 50. However, this game will be weirdly close. Kibbles 50-49. P.S. Jeff, trade me one of your starting receivers.

Flying Hellfish v. Xperience: Al... you're a former champion, a friend and a bitter rival. I respect you and, other than when you play me, I hate to see you lose. I will be sad this week. X 60-58.

Sloptarts v. Robocops: James, you whipped me last week and whipped me good. Sloptarts find a way to win this one. See you in a week Teada. Jamaal Charles will have a huge game, and make huge strides to getting the majority of the carries in KC. Slop 65-48.

In the NFL:
In my first week picking against the spread, I went a very respectable 9-7. I should also toot my own horn and point out that I picked Houston to win by exactly 3, which they did in overtime. I should also humble myself by noting that I picked Arizona to beat the spread in Atlanta. OUCH.

This week:
Tennessee @ NYG: Current Line: NYG -3
Pick: Tennessee. Joseph Addai shredded the Giants overpriced D-Line. Chris Johnson will bounce back with a dominant performance.

Buffalo @ New England: Current Line: New England -14.
Pick: New England. Buffalo is really bad. Harvard's Ryan Fitzpatrick is not good. Should have drafted Clausen.

Cleveland @ Baltimore: Current Line: Baltimore -10.5.
Pick: Baltimore. Baltimore will win this game by 100 and make me look good even though it's a HUGE spread for a Ravens offense that hasn't produced yet. Harrison is the real deal. If CLE can find a way to pass the ball, he'll run for miles, not against BAL, but just saying.

Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay: Current Line: Pittsburgh -2.5.
Pick: Pittsburgh. I think if Charlie Batch can avoid mistakes and if Mendenhall carries the ball 25 times, they will win. Tampa Bay is not bad, not at all, but Pittsburgh's defense looks as good as it has in years. Polamalu is healthy. Pittsburgh could have a very good season and will ensure they will be no worse than 3-1 when Ben returns.

Cincinnati @ Carolina: Current Line: Cincy -3.
Pick: Cincinnati. Clausen will play a lot better than expected. Steve Smith is an older, wiser, more experienced version of Golden Tate whom Clausen had a lot of fun with in college. Expect Jimmy to lean on Smith against a weak Bengals secondary. Cincy has too many weapons on offense.

Atlanta @ New Orleans: New Orleans -4.
Pick: New Orleans. I don't see any let down here, even without Reggie. Saints are for real.

San Francisco @ Kansas City: SF -2.5.
Pick: San Francisco. I have to believe this is the week SF breaks through. The Seattle game was a fluke and I believe you saw what this team is really capable of against the defending champs on Monday Night.

Detroit @ Minnesota: Minnesota -11.
Pick: Detroit. Minnesota will win, Favre will have a fine game and people will say he's finally settled in. Detroit will play tough and lose by a handful like they did against Philly.

Dallas @ Houston: Houston -3.
Pick: Houston. I've always found myself rooting for the Texans and in the past I have labeled them a perpetual 8-8 team. This year they look fun and explosive. They'll win big and Wade Phillips will swallow his own head with shame while Jerry Jones urinates on his future burial site.

Washington @ St. Louis: Washington -3.5
Pick: Washington. McNabb will not throw for over 400 yards again. He'll throw for 298 and 2 Tds and that will be enough.

San Diego @ Seattle: San Diego -5.5
Pick: San Diego. Seattle has some weapons, but they need something fresh at quarterback. San Diego is tooled up and really should be undefeated if it weren't for the weather gods week 1.

Oakland @ Arizona: Arizona -4.
Pick: Oakland. I truly have NO idea how Oakland is almost 0-2 and only beat the Rams by 2 points and lost to the Titans by 22. This team has looked great running the football and has one of the best passing defenses in the league. Oh wait, QUARTERBACK. Give the ball to Jason Campbell and for the love of god run slants.

Philadelphia @ Jacksonville: Philadelphia -3.
Pick: Jacksonville. I like what Vick is doing. But for some reason I feel like Jacksonville is gonna win. This is my GUTSY pick of the week.

Indianapolis @ Denver: Indianapolis -5.5.
Pick: Indianapolis. You all better take the Texans seriously, the Colts are incredible and they whipped them. I laugh every time I see a Colts matchup. Peyton is ridiculously good. The only problem he might have in Denver is the possibility that the 4 tds he'll throw will go a little further than usual.

New York Jets @ Miami: Miami -2.5.
Pick: Miami. It's trendy to pick Miami. They made me look good last week. I'm sticking with them. If they can hold the Jets to less than 10 points, they should be able to put up 13 against the Jets defense.

Green Bay @ Chicago: Green Bay -3.
Pick: Green Bay. I'm sorry. I can't buy into the Bears. And even if I could, the Packers are just good. If they can make a trade for a more complete back than Brandon Jackson, they'll be unstoppable.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Guts-pology

I apologize for not getting Sunday's picks up. I was in South Bend, IN, (with Nums coincidentally) at the Michigan/Notre Dame game. It was a heartbreaking defeat for our beloved Irish. Anyway, while I was there Nums informed me, much to my chagrin, that he was seriously unable to use his BS number system without data. So he can't start picking until that's ready. He's weak. I went 0-1 last week. I picked the vikings to beat a 4.5 point spread and they lost by 5. Close. All that means is that I'm tuned in and ready to pick.

NFL Week 2:

Arizona @ Atlanta: Atlanta -6.5. I've got to think Atlanta's offense will show up this weekend at home. A lot of other "experts" are counting Arizona out of this game because it's an East Coast game. This is not in New England and it's on turf. I like Arizona to beat this spread in my GUTSY pick of the week.
Pick: Arizona

Tampa Bay @ Carolina: OFF. I have to pick this game straight up. I like Tampa Bay and I think they have a decent future ahead of them with Morgan Freeman, star of Shawshank Redemption, at QB. I like Carolina at home though on the legs of DeAngelo Williams.
Pick: Carolina

Buffalo @ Green Bay: Green Bay -13. I like Green Bay to cover. Mark my words, Buffalo will be the worst team in the NFL this year and will draft a quarterback 1st overall.
Pick: Green Bay

Baltimore @ Cincinnati: Baltimore -2. After this week, Cincinnati will be the best 0-2 team. Their offense is revamped, but Baltimore's looked "Ravens Super Bowl 2000" Good. Baltimore still feels the sting of last year's two defeats at the hands of the Bengals.
Pick: Baltimore

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee: Tennessee -5. This seems like a Tennessee lock. Chris Johnson looks great, the defense held up well against the revamped Raiders. The Steelers have a third-string quarterback in. NOPE! Pittsburgh will beat this spread.
Pick: Pittsburgh

Kansas City @ Cleveland: Cleveland -1.5. I can't understand this one. Cleveland loses to Tampa Bay (bad team) and Kansas City beats San Diego (playoff team) and Cleveland is favored. If no one watched the late Monday Game, let me refresh your memory. Chiefs=fast.
Pick: Always pick speed, Chiefs.

Philadelphia @ Detroit: Philadelphia -4.5. Vick is back. See him run.
Pick: Philadelphia (by a wide margin).

Chicago @ Dallas: Dallas -8.5. This is a trap spread. Dallas is at home and will have something to prove.
Pick: Dallas. I'm going to regret this pick. But I have to think Dallas is better than they showed in Washington.

Miami @ Minnesota: Minnesota -5.5: Again, another team with something to prove at home. The Vikings offense, despite their chirping, might need to trade for Vincent Jackson. Miami is much improved and can run all over the dome.
Pick: Miami. Minnesota will be the second best 0-2 team. (Favre will waste this team this year).

St. Louis @ Oakland: Oakland -3.5. The Raiders had bright spots in that game against Tennessee. The Rams will have a winning record in the next 5 years. This game won't help.
Pick: Oakland.

Seattle @ Denver: Denver -3.5. Perhaps Vegas did not see the Broncos first game. They confuse me. Seattle surprised everyone beating a much-hyped 49er squad who is already in Singletary's doghouse. That said...
Pick: Denver at home.

Houston @ Washington: Houston -3. Houston will win this stunningly close game by exactly 3. Arian Foster will rush for only 120 this week, he's a beast, pay attention. *Fantasy pick of the game: Santana Moss.
Pick: Houston.

Jacksonville @ San Diego: San Diego -7.5. Chargers will win big.
Pick: San Diego.

New England @ New York Jets: New England -1.5. The Jets are gross. I'm tired of hearing about them. Revis may shut down Moss but that team can't stop the rest of the Patriots passing game.
Pick: New England

N.Y. Giants @ Indianapolis: Indianapolis -5.5. Manning Bowl II. See Result of Manning Bowl I.
Pick: Indianapolis.


Fantasy League: The Red Zone IX

Let's start out with Me (1759ers) vs. Nums (Robocops): That's right, this week I play my arch-nemesis and heterosexual life-partner on the metaphorical gridiron. Nums is sporting a particularly despicable lineup that is unfortunately capable of upending me after my first week murder of the Flying Hellfish. Nums has Ahmad Bradshaw against an Indy defense that gave up 231 yds to Arian Foster (my boy) and Brandon Jackson against a Buffalo defense that surrendered 147 yards on the ground to Miami. Also, our matchup also pits the Manning brothers against one another. I happen to have the better one for fantasy purposes and that will be the difference this week. I'll win 72-66.

Fightendrunks v. Sloptarts:
The Sloptarts benefited last week playing against the worst team in Fantasy Football, the Hells Satans. Also, no matter who is on Manager/Coach/Owner Nick Teada's team, he seems to find a way to win. This year I have a feeling some of that luck will run out. There is definitely some talent on the Sloptarts, but inconsistency could be the death of that team. As for the Drunks. This team is scary. They currently sit in last place though due to a TD-less week from Peterson and Turner and a concussion to Kolb. I guarantee both Peterson and Turner will score this week and Michael Vick will be UNBELIEVABLE against the Lions. Drunks roll. 75-52.

Blood Money v. Hells Satans:
Ew. This is a must win game for both teams as my colleague Teed has already pointed out with his tremendous picks. It's hard to believe there could be a must-win game this early. I picked Blood Money, only because I hate John. Personally, I think this will be a 10-10 tie. But.. in the interest of seriousness, Blood Money will win a squeaker. 6-3.

Danny's Donkies v. Rusty Nails:
The Donkies suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of their most bitter rivals last week, the Roughnecks. Still, their team is solid. Nails team, however, benefited from a very strong trade last week and will debut new RB Ray Rice this week against Cincinnati. Rice was stuffed by the staunch Jets D last week, but he will be the high point man in this matchup that isn't a quarterback. Rivers will earn that honor and Rusty Nails will take this one 75-64.

Flying Hellfish v. The Roughnecks:
The Hellfish got lambasted last week against my championship caliber squad, but not because they're a bad team. No one scored. This is a touchdown heavy league and I look for the Hellfish to score lots of touchdowns. Seattle and Matt Hasselbeck put up 31 points against the 49ers. By sheer talent gap, Drew Brees should put up 60. The Roughnecks have the advantage top to bottom. But the Brees-Colston connection is too much to overcome. Hellfish 61-60.

Kibbles and Vicks v. TBX:
I know the following statement is going to come back to haunt me, but here it goes: Chris Johnson will not score a rushing touchdown vs. Pittsburgh. Further, if Pittsburgh is able to control Time of Possession, his 100 yard rushing game streak will end this week. With that, goes the Xperience momentum. I'm picking Kibbles, only because I see a let down this week. Biggs' team is WAY better, but this week, they lose. 66-65.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Guts and Glory: A Tale of Redemption

Three years ago, my nemesis Nums and I embarked on a challenge. Who could choose NFL Football games more accurately? A man named Guts with more passion and American vigor in his pinky than is contained in the entire Bible Belt and possessing nothing more than pure football instinct and a love of the game OR a boy named Nums with a calculated system of proven indices created for the sole purpose of mathematically calculating the outcomes of games played by real people, human people. The answer was as shocking as the outcome of the super bowl (the giants beat the undefeated Patriots). Nums won, narrowly, sending me into a downward spiral of shame and physical self-degradation. But all that is behind me now. This year marks the return of Guts vs. Numbers and a return to glory. I will accept nothing less than pure domination over the rigid and anal ways of my counterpart.

The last three years
-Guts is now a 3rd year law student and still hates Nums.
-Nums is a civil engineer, living in Chicago and still wets the bed.
-Nums recently joined Guts' home fantasy football league and the two will be picking those games as well. (Not to be counted for the contest).

Contest Capsule: Each week, Nums and I will choose NFL games against the spread. I will use nothing but Guts and Nums will use stupid poopie-head numbers.

Today is the start of the 2010 Football season. In a rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game, the New Orleans, defending super-bowl champs, feel good story from a year ago, host teh Minnesota Favres. New Orleans is pumped, excited, talking repeat. The Vikings are historical losers as a franchise and despite his ONE super bowl ring, so is Brett Favre. He is also an idiot. BUT, I do not suspect Favre's season to take a parabolic shape, a bell-curve if you will. No, I expect he will throw for at least 8 TDs in this, the first game of the season and finish the season with 9 TDs and 20 INTs, hurting something around week 11 and dismantling his career starts streak.

Game: Minnesota @ New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans -4.5
Gutsy Pick: Minnesota beats the spread. I also think Minnesota will win this one. But don't worry saints fans, you won't lose many other games this season.


Now on to the Fantasy League:

1759ers (Guts' Team) v. Hellfish: In the most storied rivalry in Red Zone History, these teams meet for the 16th time. The 59ers own an 8-7 series advantage. Last year, the 59ers had Brees and cruised when he threw 6tds against the Lions. This year the Hellfish have Brees and Colston against the Vikings. Brees will throw 2 Tds and also 2 Picks. The Tds will be to Meachem and Bush. Mark it. 59ers roll. 71-60.

Robocops (Nums' Team) v. Old Rusty Nails: I hate Nums. Welcome to the league. Nails: 64-45.

Miami Sound Machine v. Roughnecks: In a rivalry that has been tested in the Fantasy Championship arena as well as the regular season, Miami owns a slight lead. They will widen that lead. 66-64.

Blood Money v. Kibbles and Vicks: Kibbles wins on the legs of Jahvid Best. Kibbles 58-55.

Fightendrunks v. X: Timmy Biggs smells like poop normally, but not this week. X on the Arm of Tom Brady. 71-63.

Sloptarts v. Hells Satans: I can't believe Hells Satans' draft "strategy". This bad a team would be expected in a 24 team league, not a 12 team league. Sloptarts 72-0.



NFL Predictions:

NFC East: 1. Cowboys. 2. Eagles. 3. Giants. 4. Redskins.
NFC North: 1. Packers. 2. Vikings. 3. Lions. 4. Bears.
NFC South: 1. Saints. 2. Falcons. 3. Panthers. 4. Bucs.
NFC West: 1. 49ers. 2. Seahawks. 3. Cardinals. 4. Rams

NFC Playoffs: #1. Saints. #2. Packers. #3. Cowboys. #4. 49ers. #5 Eagles. #6. Falcons.
Semis: Saints v. Falcons, Packers v. Eagles.
NFC Championship. Saints v. Packers.
Super Bowl Rep: Packers.

AFC East: 1. Patriots 2. Jets 3. Dolphins. 4. Bills.
AFC North: 1. Bengals. 2. Ravens. 3. Steelers. 4. Browns.
AFC South: 1. Colts. 2. Texans. 3. Titans. 4. Jags
AFC West: 1. Chargers. 2. Raiders. 3. Broncos. 4. Chiefs.

AFC Playoffs: #1. Colts. #2. Bengals. #3. Patriots. #4. Chargers. #5. Ravens. #6. Raiders.
Semis: Colts v. Ravens, Bengals v. Patriots
AFC Championship: Colts v. Patriots
Super Bowl Rep: Colts

Super Bowl: Packers v. Colts
NFL CHAMPION: Indianapolis Colts.

See you this weekend with the rest of the games.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

The Return

GUTS VS. NUMBERS WILL RETURN

SEPTEMBER 2010.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Football Season is Over- On to March Madness and The General Election

The Giants won. After 33 Blog posts about how much the Giants suck. They won the Super Bowl. They beat the Pats, they ended the undefeated season. You will be greatly surprised if you see this Gutstar type another word about football before the college season starts.

That being said. We're back. And we're looking better than ever. We have a new blog up on young professionalism. Beingprofessional.blogspot.com. It's a subject that Nums and I are extremely qualified to write on. More qualified than pro football if you can believe that.

We're moving on to bigger fish. The Election is coming up in November, but before that Hope-fest we've got a little ditty called March madness. that is right, Nums and I will be handicapping the tournament so you can go into your office pool with whatever tool you feel better with (Guts or Numbers) and win. I believe due to the unpredictability of the tournament that I have an embarrassing advantage over Nums. However, as always, I expect him to show up early March with something ridiculously clever.

Til next time. Be Safe.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Explanations are in order

Well, we haven't posted. What began as a gentleman's challenge has met great obstacles. What sorts of obstacles, you ask?

Here's a list of just 5.

Also, the blog will be changing its course. I'm sure Jimmy "Nums" will be updating you on that in the near future.

1. Christmas- for those of you who out there who don't celebrate this holiday known mostly for night prowling fat men and ham-presents, it's the one day (which takes up a whole month) where "Christians" celebrate the birth of "Christ" our lord "and" savior. It tends to have alot of ceremonies and rituals that can only be described as mandatory.

2. General Malaise- not a condiment. Rather it's a congenital disease found mostly in students and recent graduates. Symptoms include but are not limited to; Law and order marathons, watching slot machines, lethargy, uncontrollable bodily upheaval (coup de corpus) , paranoia.

3. Trying to enjoy football- Ever since the friendly challenge began between myself and Nums I have found myself too emotionally invested in the games to actually enjoy them. I made a conscious effort (not to betray you) but to remember what I love so much about the sport.

4. Super Christmas Eve Drinking Day- It's a tradition in the "Guts" household to get really plastered on Christmas Eve and wake up extremely hung over and fight while trying to be Merry. Fun times were had by all.

5. Jail- Yes, I bailed "Nums" out of prison. If I hadn't gotten there in time he would have inevitably become Mrs. Inmate #324612. Dressed in blue jeans, a backwards red cap, and a tacky Christmas sweater, Nums was forced to spend the night in the hoosegow. That's what friends are for.

That's good enough for now. I think it's important to still pick, even if our attitudes have changed. And to you, friends, be good to each other.

New England at New York (NFC)
Pick: Destiny: While I believe the Giants defense is a unit of merit and could potentially SLOW the Patriots, the Giants offense led by Eli "First Half" Manning, can not, I repeat CAN NOT win this game. And they WILL NOT. Witness the first undefeated regular season since 1972, and perhaps the best team in history (cheaters or not).

We'll see you in the playoffs.

Spread: New England -13: Take it. I have no reason to pick against them.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Good News/Bad News

Bad news first: we didn't post this weekend. You already know that. Zach summed it up pretty good. At least I learned yet another weakness of the System: free drinks at a graduate student 'social mixer'. Oh, and young professionals drive Audis. Who knew?

Good news: I finished my stats project an hour late. I guess that's bad news, but really, it's good news, because I got to legitimately analyze the competitive balance in the nfl for a grade... hopefully a good one... probably a bad one. If you're bored, I can email it to you.