Well, we haven't posted. What began as a gentleman's challenge has met great obstacles. What sorts of obstacles, you ask?
Here's a list of just 5.
Also, the blog will be changing its course. I'm sure Jimmy "Nums" will be updating you on that in the near future.
1. Christmas- for those of you who out there who don't celebrate this holiday known mostly for night prowling fat men and ham-presents, it's the one day (which takes up a whole month) where "Christians" celebrate the birth of "Christ" our lord "and" savior. It tends to have alot of ceremonies and rituals that can only be described as mandatory.
2. General Malaise- not a condiment. Rather it's a congenital disease found mostly in students and recent graduates. Symptoms include but are not limited to; Law and order marathons, watching slot machines, lethargy, uncontrollable bodily upheaval (coup de corpus) , paranoia.
3. Trying to enjoy football- Ever since the friendly challenge began between myself and Nums I have found myself too emotionally invested in the games to actually enjoy them. I made a conscious effort (not to betray you) but to remember what I love so much about the sport.
4. Super Christmas Eve Drinking Day- It's a tradition in the "Guts" household to get really plastered on Christmas Eve and wake up extremely hung over and fight while trying to be Merry. Fun times were had by all.
5. Jail- Yes, I bailed "Nums" out of prison. If I hadn't gotten there in time he would have inevitably become Mrs. Inmate #324612. Dressed in blue jeans, a backwards red cap, and a tacky Christmas sweater, Nums was forced to spend the night in the hoosegow. That's what friends are for.
That's good enough for now. I think it's important to still pick, even if our attitudes have changed. And to you, friends, be good to each other.
New England at New York (NFC)
Pick: Destiny: While I believe the Giants defense is a unit of merit and could potentially SLOW the Patriots, the Giants offense led by Eli "First Half" Manning, can not, I repeat CAN NOT win this game. And they WILL NOT. Witness the first undefeated regular season since 1972, and perhaps the best team in history (cheaters or not).
We'll see you in the playoffs.
Spread: New England -13: Take it. I have no reason to pick against them.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Monday, December 17, 2007
Good News/Bad News
Bad news first: we didn't post this weekend. You already know that. Zach summed it up pretty good. At least I learned yet another weakness of the System: free drinks at a graduate student 'social mixer'. Oh, and young professionals drive Audis. Who knew?
Good news: I finished my stats project an hour late. I guess that's bad news, but really, it's good news, because I got to legitimately analyze the competitive balance in the nfl for a grade... hopefully a good one... probably a bad one. If you're bored, I can email it to you.
Good news: I finished my stats project an hour late. I guess that's bad news, but really, it's good news, because I got to legitimately analyze the competitive balance in the nfl for a grade... hopefully a good one... probably a bad one. If you're bored, I can email it to you.
Bye week
Week 15 turned into a bye week for both Guts and Nums.
I owe you an apology.
I apologize to all of my fans and to all zero of his fans. If you must know what happened, we took the week off citing general malaise. Our weekend consisted of being thrust into the realm of young professionalism. Nums spent his time getting deep into the heart of Green Bay, Wisconsin where he did invaluable playoff and climate research. I spent my saturday in Denmark exploring old caverns. It was a vacation that we both needed and it happened without warning for our fans, ourselves, and everyone caught in the wake.
As for monday night's game since I'm a hefty 0-2 this week, I'm going with the Vikings over the Bears on Monday night, covering the spread.
I owe you an apology.
I apologize to all of my fans and to all zero of his fans. If you must know what happened, we took the week off citing general malaise. Our weekend consisted of being thrust into the realm of young professionalism. Nums spent his time getting deep into the heart of Green Bay, Wisconsin where he did invaluable playoff and climate research. I spent my saturday in Denmark exploring old caverns. It was a vacation that we both needed and it happened without warning for our fans, ourselves, and everyone caught in the wake.
As for monday night's game since I'm a hefty 0-2 this week, I'm going with the Vikings over the Bears on Monday night, covering the spread.
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Quick Pick
Time to make the saturday game pick. Unfortunately, I'm not near the System right now. But I can tell you that Cinci is gooder than SF, according to the numbers. Therefore, in lieu of the actual system, I can confidently say that Cinci will both beat the niners and cover whatever spread the boys in Vegas can come up with.
I'll get to the sunday games later
I'll get to the sunday games later
Friday, December 14, 2007
Saturday Game
Okay so I'm not even going to address thursday's game between Denver and Houston. Wow. The blurb on cbs said at the top and I read no further "Sage Rosenfels and Ron Dayne put away Denver 31-13" Okay no thank you.
Saturday's Game:
Cincinnati @ San Francisco
Pick: Cincy: As Nums will undoubtedly agree, this is the worst game of the week. Maybe not the matchup of the two worst teams, that distinction belongs to Miami and Baltimore, but the worst because it sits alone and if you love football, you have to watch it. I will not. I'll just pick it.
Also, the 49ers just signed CHRIS WEINKE to be SHAUN HILL'S BACKUP. Jesus.
Spread: Cincy -6: They'll cover
Saturday's Game:
Cincinnati @ San Francisco
Pick: Cincy: As Nums will undoubtedly agree, this is the worst game of the week. Maybe not the matchup of the two worst teams, that distinction belongs to Miami and Baltimore, but the worst because it sits alone and if you love football, you have to watch it. I will not. I'll just pick it.
Also, the 49ers just signed CHRIS WEINKE to be SHAUN HILL'S BACKUP. Jesus.
Spread: Cincy -6: They'll cover
Thursday, December 13, 2007
The Week After Tomorrow
Hello one and all.
In last week's unfinished post (some call it laziness, I call it avant garde), I made a few statements that I would like to revisit:
1. This is the make or break week for the System.
In my view, it was. It was week 14, and if the stats aren't firmly entrenched by this time, they never will be. By Week 14 a few teams are comfortable in their playoff chances, but most are jockeying for position. And the teams that don't have a chance haven't seen the brown-colored light at the end of the turd tunnel, so they haven't given up yet. As it turned out, this was a Week to Remember for the System (starring Mandy Moore).
2. Picking the winners will be easy
And how. For those keeping score, the System went 15-1 picking winners. Feel that chill up your spine? Yeah, that's the God of Numbers telling you "I told you so... and now I'm tickling your back." The only loss was my baby Bucs who were without a Garcia and who went up against a Texans team that is about 20 times better with Andre Johnson (avg. 15 yds/catch and 5 catchs/TD). Unfortunately, Andre hasn't played enough games to significantly influence the System (until this week). I guess the loss was just Karma getting back at me for all the Sage Rosenfels jokes I cracked (or as I like to call him: Thyme Guildenstern).
Anyway, I was very pleased with the performance, but as of now, I don't expect the System to perform that well on a consistent basis.
3. Picking against the spread won't be easy
And how. In the worst week so far picking the spread, I went 8-8. Notice how I said "I" went 8-8 instead of "the System"? It due to the biggest flaw I have uncovered so far in this latest version of the System: Me. I let my own beliefs such as "11 point victories aren't as common or predictable as you might think" cloud my judgment and bias the choices. I have yet to figure out how I can take the System's point differential and transform that into a quantifiable way to predict the actual point differential, but I will. It might have to wait for the offseason though, or at least Christmas break.
That said, I'll get to my thoughts on tonight's game at Houston. Notice the Andre Johnson stats I put earlier? Yeah, they serve nicely to justify my pick. As far as the System is concerned, it's nearly a gimme, with Denver having the slight lead. The bookies in Vegas also had the same idea. When I checked the spread, it already differed from teh one Zach used, but whatever. However, with homefield advantage and the impact of Andre Johnson, I will pick Houston to beat the spread. Mathmatically, the games can't get much closer than this. Now, if only that damn God of Numbers would stop trying to tickle my bum.
In last week's unfinished post (some call it laziness, I call it avant garde), I made a few statements that I would like to revisit:
1. This is the make or break week for the System.
In my view, it was. It was week 14, and if the stats aren't firmly entrenched by this time, they never will be. By Week 14 a few teams are comfortable in their playoff chances, but most are jockeying for position. And the teams that don't have a chance haven't seen the brown-colored light at the end of the turd tunnel, so they haven't given up yet. As it turned out, this was a Week to Remember for the System (starring Mandy Moore).
2. Picking the winners will be easy
And how. For those keeping score, the System went 15-1 picking winners. Feel that chill up your spine? Yeah, that's the God of Numbers telling you "I told you so... and now I'm tickling your back." The only loss was my baby Bucs who were without a Garcia and who went up against a Texans team that is about 20 times better with Andre Johnson (avg. 15 yds/catch and 5 catchs/TD). Unfortunately, Andre hasn't played enough games to significantly influence the System (until this week). I guess the loss was just Karma getting back at me for all the Sage Rosenfels jokes I cracked (or as I like to call him: Thyme Guildenstern).
Anyway, I was very pleased with the performance, but as of now, I don't expect the System to perform that well on a consistent basis.
3. Picking against the spread won't be easy
And how. In the worst week so far picking the spread, I went 8-8. Notice how I said "I" went 8-8 instead of "the System"? It due to the biggest flaw I have uncovered so far in this latest version of the System: Me. I let my own beliefs such as "11 point victories aren't as common or predictable as you might think" cloud my judgment and bias the choices. I have yet to figure out how I can take the System's point differential and transform that into a quantifiable way to predict the actual point differential, but I will. It might have to wait for the offseason though, or at least Christmas break.
That said, I'll get to my thoughts on tonight's game at Houston. Notice the Andre Johnson stats I put earlier? Yeah, they serve nicely to justify my pick. As far as the System is concerned, it's nearly a gimme, with Denver having the slight lead. The bookies in Vegas also had the same idea. When I checked the spread, it already differed from teh one Zach used, but whatever. However, with homefield advantage and the impact of Andre Johnson, I will pick Houston to beat the spread. Mathmatically, the games can't get much closer than this. Now, if only that damn God of Numbers would stop trying to tickle my bum.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Week 15
It is a sad time for guts fans everywhere as Nums has opened up an 8 game lead in the regular season with just 3 weeks before the playoffs. His system is proving to work very well straight up, not too great against the spread though, but who's counting? Week 15 is when I get hot. Also sorry that you had to hear my picks through him last week, there was no way to access a computer at the bar. Also, I apologize for picking Miami, I had a lot of eggnog and when I saw that on sunday I almost threw it up.
Thursday's pick:
Denver @ Houston
Pick: Denver: Selvin Young emerged last week as possibly the next in a long line of successful denver running backs under Mike Shanahan. Both teams are 6-7 and this is basically a playoff before the playoffs. Denver has the most to lose as many picked them to be playoff contenders before the season. Houston is having a year that no matter the outcome will look good and set the tone for '08. They've played alot of tough games and this will be another one.
Spread: Hou -3: Denver beats it with three of their own. 23-20
I'd give you Saturday's game too, but I don't have the line as of yet. I'll be back with picks on Friday.
Thursday's pick:
Denver @ Houston
Pick: Denver: Selvin Young emerged last week as possibly the next in a long line of successful denver running backs under Mike Shanahan. Both teams are 6-7 and this is basically a playoff before the playoffs. Denver has the most to lose as many picked them to be playoff contenders before the season. Houston is having a year that no matter the outcome will look good and set the tone for '08. They've played alot of tough games and this will be another one.
Spread: Hou -3: Denver beats it with three of their own. 23-20
I'd give you Saturday's game too, but I don't have the line as of yet. I'll be back with picks on Friday.
Saturday, December 8, 2007
SOYLENT GREEN IS MADE OF NUMBERS!!! (also, Zach's picks)
Hello loyal reader(s),
Week 14, the week of hope. I truly believe this is the make or break game for the System. Picking the winners will be easy; picking the spread won't be. there are several games with a 10.5 point spread and a most others are 6.5 or above. That might not sound too shocking, but in the NFL, 11 point victories aren't as common or predictable as you might think (not to mention 10.5 point victories. In fact, no team has ever won by 10.5 points in the history of the game). Giggity.
MIA vs. BUF
STL vs. CIN
Good news: The Abomination of the Week this week isn't that bad. Bad News: it's still an abomination. I saw this game posted and I thought, 'could be worse.' But then I got that sinking feeling in my gut. That horrible feeling that makes me swear and drink heavily and go into my office at 3 in the morning and look up porn. I swear, the bad games make me do these things. CIN win and STL coverstl
DAL vs. DET
If faith in the lord gave your arm power, Kitna would be Kyle Boller. But he's not and his team sucks and so does Kyle Boller's team. In one of the more prescient points I have heard in sports reporting for some time, a person on Sportsline suggested that Wade Phillips was just a figure head to divert attention to Jason Garrett. And if there's one thing Wade Phillips diverts, it's attention. If there's two things, they're attention and hoagies. Hopefully he doesn't divert from the Lions' mid-game bible study.
OAK vs. GB
When I was in eighth grade, I lost the geography bee on this question: 'What is the largest city in Wisconsin?' I answered Green Bay because they had a football team and Milwakee didn't. I got the question wrong, not because Green Bay didn't have a team, but because Milwakee does actually have more people. But they don't have more Bret Favres. So I ask you, people, what do we really want our children to learn in school?
TB vs. HOU
What the fizzle? Tampa Bay is getting no respect. They lead the division when they have garcia; they win a big game with one of the McCowns. My rankings have them number 6 in the league, yet they're only given 3.5 points? Most of the experts on CBS are picking HOU. On principle, I can't name them the GOWER POWER POINTS PICK for the 2nd straight week, but I can name them the 'really good team that'll catch people by surprise in the playoffs because people are idiots and numbers are wise POINTS PICK' for this week.
CAR vs. JAC
I've said it before, I'll say it again: it still feels like these teams just joined the league and are playing with zero expectations. Every week is a joy to the people of Jacksonville and one of the carolinas (or both, or just northern georgia). In a perfect world, these teams would play every week and both would win every week. I'd pick a winner, but I stay away from anything born in the 90's (sorry reggie).
PIT vs. NE
The game of the week, I guess. NE's been making it fun for the past few weeks and Pitt lost to arizona. I really have no clue where this game will go. Whatever happens, I believe it will definitely be more revealing for Pittsburgh. New england already proved themselves this year, even if they do lose.
NYG vs. PHI
Zach left this weekend to visit friends. It's these kinds of weekends where you prove your muster. We, the people left behind, have to prove that we can still win the big game after our running leaves the game in the first quarter. I shared this with one of his roommates and he suggested that Zach was more like a quarterback. I conceded this, but only on the condition that that quarterback was Eli Manning. Sorry Zach, you're a big bitch with a good pedigree.
I'm sorry, but I'm tired and I'm looking at the rest of the games and I don't want to pick the GOWER POWER POINTS PICK right now. I'll pick this up later. In the mean time, here are Zach's picks phoned in just minutes ago:
Winner/vs. spread
Jacksonville, Jack
Miami, miami
STL, STL
Dal, dal
GB, GB
TB, TB
NE, NE
PHI, PHI
TEN, TEN
MIN, MIN
SEA, SEA
DEN, KC
CLE, CLE
IND, IND
NO, NO
Heart index: Heart sucks
Guts index: Guts suck
America index: Zach sucks
Week 14, the week of hope. I truly believe this is the make or break game for the System. Picking the winners will be easy; picking the spread won't be. there are several games with a 10.5 point spread and a most others are 6.5 or above. That might not sound too shocking, but in the NFL, 11 point victories aren't as common or predictable as you might think (not to mention 10.5 point victories. In fact, no team has ever won by 10.5 points in the history of the game). Giggity.
MIA vs. BUF
STL vs. CIN
Good news: The Abomination of the Week this week isn't that bad. Bad News: it's still an abomination. I saw this game posted and I thought, 'could be worse.' But then I got that sinking feeling in my gut. That horrible feeling that makes me swear and drink heavily and go into my office at 3 in the morning and look up porn. I swear, the bad games make me do these things. CIN win and STL coverstl
DAL vs. DET
If faith in the lord gave your arm power, Kitna would be Kyle Boller. But he's not and his team sucks and so does Kyle Boller's team. In one of the more prescient points I have heard in sports reporting for some time, a person on Sportsline suggested that Wade Phillips was just a figure head to divert attention to Jason Garrett. And if there's one thing Wade Phillips diverts, it's attention. If there's two things, they're attention and hoagies. Hopefully he doesn't divert from the Lions' mid-game bible study.
OAK vs. GB
When I was in eighth grade, I lost the geography bee on this question: 'What is the largest city in Wisconsin?' I answered Green Bay because they had a football team and Milwakee didn't. I got the question wrong, not because Green Bay didn't have a team, but because Milwakee does actually have more people. But they don't have more Bret Favres. So I ask you, people, what do we really want our children to learn in school?
TB vs. HOU
What the fizzle? Tampa Bay is getting no respect. They lead the division when they have garcia; they win a big game with one of the McCowns. My rankings have them number 6 in the league, yet they're only given 3.5 points? Most of the experts on CBS are picking HOU. On principle, I can't name them the GOWER POWER POINTS PICK for the 2nd straight week, but I can name them the 'really good team that'll catch people by surprise in the playoffs because people are idiots and numbers are wise POINTS PICK' for this week.
CAR vs. JAC
I've said it before, I'll say it again: it still feels like these teams just joined the league and are playing with zero expectations. Every week is a joy to the people of Jacksonville and one of the carolinas (or both, or just northern georgia). In a perfect world, these teams would play every week and both would win every week. I'd pick a winner, but I stay away from anything born in the 90's (sorry reggie).
PIT vs. NE
The game of the week, I guess. NE's been making it fun for the past few weeks and Pitt lost to arizona. I really have no clue where this game will go. Whatever happens, I believe it will definitely be more revealing for Pittsburgh. New england already proved themselves this year, even if they do lose.
NYG vs. PHI
Zach left this weekend to visit friends. It's these kinds of weekends where you prove your muster. We, the people left behind, have to prove that we can still win the big game after our running leaves the game in the first quarter. I shared this with one of his roommates and he suggested that Zach was more like a quarterback. I conceded this, but only on the condition that that quarterback was Eli Manning. Sorry Zach, you're a big bitch with a good pedigree.
I'm sorry, but I'm tired and I'm looking at the rest of the games and I don't want to pick the GOWER POWER POINTS PICK right now. I'll pick this up later. In the mean time, here are Zach's picks phoned in just minutes ago:
Winner/vs. spread
Jacksonville, Jack
Miami, miami
STL, STL
Dal, dal
GB, GB
TB, TB
NE, NE
PHI, PHI
TEN, TEN
MIN, MIN
SEA, SEA
DEN, KC
CLE, CLE
IND, IND
NO, NO
Heart index: Heart sucks
Guts index: Guts suck
America index: Zach sucks
Week 14 Pickaroonies
I've been busy with the end of the semester, so I haven't had much time to devote to this. Like last week, i'll have game previews up later tonight. As for 'Guts', he may be out of commission this week due to a emergency in D.C. Everything's alright, but he had to go down there and drink lots of beer with his college friends. I almost went with him, but he couldn't promise that I would get a handjob from a chick under a blanket in a room full of people. I guess you could call it a dream of mine...
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Finally, a Thursday game America doesn't care about. If the NFL would have scheduled all the games like this, they'd have a successful network. I'd write more on the subject, but I'm on the tail end of an all-nighter that mainly involved me eating a lot of fritos and switching between google image searches for Adrianna Lima in a football jersey and Joe Montana in a bikini. I guess it's a good thing that I'm rarely alone in my office.
Anyway, this game is tough to call. These teams have both had a tough past 5 games, with Washington the worse for the wear, emotionally and physically. However, they can still play respectable defense and move the ball better than the Grossman Express (Next stop: boosville), so the System picks them to win. But if it's a close game, I have to go with Chicago vs. the spread. Washington is 3rd worst team in the league in TO ratio and 5th worse in fg pct. That probably means something.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Week 14 begins Thursday
Here I am, rock you like a hurricane. That's right, like a Scorpion this Thursday game is going to sting. Either Washington will lose their second home game in 11 days post Sean Taylor's death, or Chicago will continue to disappoint a season after they disappointed in the Super Bowl (Not you Devin Hester) Speaking of disappointments, after a 10-6 week. I trail Nums by 4 games after tough losses by New Orleans and Houston set me back. This week, I hope to make up a little ground.
Chicago at Washington
Pick: Chicago: As much as it pains me, I'm going with the Bears on this one due to a very guts-like trend. The Bears, after week 4 have gone win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win-loss... that means, even though I hate numbers, that it has to continue. The Redskins suffered a really tough loss last week against Buffalo. The game was emotional and it came down to a last second field goal. I think this game will do the same, unfortunately it may be a miss on the leg of my boy Sean Suisham. But who knows? Both of these teams are in a bad place, but at least chicago is winning as much as they're losing while Washington has dropped four straight.
Guts index: Temperature is dropping, take off those shirts and paint your chests, Guts.
Heart Index: Crazy on you
America index: Our nation's capital got some snow, no matter if it snows more or not, everyone on the field will be glad they aren't in Pittsburgh for a night game.
Spread: Washington -3: I wish I could pick the Skins to lose and to cover, but I cannot.
See ya sometime this week, I'll be sending in my article from DC actually if I can find time in between Christmas sweater shopping and setting the clocks back constantly to simulate the perfect drinking hour all day.
Chicago at Washington
Pick: Chicago: As much as it pains me, I'm going with the Bears on this one due to a very guts-like trend. The Bears, after week 4 have gone win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win-loss... that means, even though I hate numbers, that it has to continue. The Redskins suffered a really tough loss last week against Buffalo. The game was emotional and it came down to a last second field goal. I think this game will do the same, unfortunately it may be a miss on the leg of my boy Sean Suisham. But who knows? Both of these teams are in a bad place, but at least chicago is winning as much as they're losing while Washington has dropped four straight.
Guts index: Temperature is dropping, take off those shirts and paint your chests, Guts.
Heart Index: Crazy on you
America index: Our nation's capital got some snow, no matter if it snows more or not, everyone on the field will be glad they aren't in Pittsburgh for a night game.
Spread: Washington -3: I wish I could pick the Skins to lose and to cover, but I cannot.
See ya sometime this week, I'll be sending in my article from DC actually if I can find time in between Christmas sweater shopping and setting the clocks back constantly to simulate the perfect drinking hour all day.
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Maybe the last post ever
When I was younger, I read the Book of Revelation and thought it could never happen. But, as I write this, the four horsemen are suiting up. West Virginia lost (Death). Ohio State didn't play (Famine). Missouri is losing (War). I forget what the other one is, but I'm pretty sure he's getting his horse out of the stable. Nonetheless, I think there's still sometime before the Rapture, so I might as well preview tomorrow's game before I am taken peacefully to my Heavenly home.
ATL at STL
I wish I could say this game was the abomination of the week, but, sadly, I can't (see below). The Greatest Show on Turf meets the Greatest Show In A Pit In Vick's Back Yard. I'm reminded of Aesop's Fable where the eagle (or falcon) picks up the ram and yada, yada, yada drops it. go with the falcons
BUF at WAS
I'll leave this one alone. That Sean Taylor story gets more and more outrageous every day. Never bring a machete to a gun fight.
DET at MIN
A few weeks ago, Detroit was the Cinderella of the System. But if there's one thing God (however you define Him) hates, it's false prophets, and Kitna is not looking too good in his prediction for 10 wins right about now. Neither is that receiver who thought they would get 12 or 13, especially since it's mathmatically impossible. I feel bad for the Ford family, nothing it going well for them now. Not like that Toyota family.
HOU at TEN
Tennessee, another former System Cinderella, has hit hard times as of late, but they still have a chance to grab the second wild card (or even take Jacksonville's for that matter), so expect them to try extra extra hard in this one.
JAC at IND
This year has been god-awful for Peyton Manning commercials. I mean, last year, I loved the 'laser-rocket' arm gag and 'Cut-That-Meat' killed me. But that 'pep talk' shit? and what the hell is Marvin Harrison doing in that water? He's surrounded by dolphins? First of all, that's not bad, that's delightful. If I was Peyton i'd drop the ball and go play with Harrison in the dolphin tank.
NYJ at MIA
Here it is, the Abomination of the Week. When I first thought of this game, I had to leave the room and get some air. A homeless man asked me if I was ok. I told him the Jets were playing the Dolphins, and he said "shit, what them dawfins doin in the air? shit." Sir, I agree. Dolphins-stick to the running game. I feel good things are coming from that Ricky Williams. I forgot to say this last week, but good luck Ricky, it's good to have you back. What's that? Oh... um... the Jets will probably win.
SD at KC
In the battle of cities with short abbreviations, I go with San Diego. A wise man once said something about 'San Diego' being spanish for a whale's something. I laughed until I heard that quote 50 times. Ever since then, I hated Napoleon Dynamite.
SEA at PHI
Talk about Super Bowl Hangovers. These teams are still got so drunk off their super bowl loses that they're still in Denny's waiting for their side of bacon. Instead of Gatorade, they should get pepto bismol.
SF at CAR
At SF, george seifert won two super bowls. At CAR, his third and final season was, according to Wikipedia (yeah, I research these), was a 'disaster.' Look for the panthers to win this for george...
CLE at ARI
CLE, you are the new Cinderella of the System, and that is well deserved. I don't know what it is about you guys, but it just feels good to root for you. The NFL promised you a team after the Original Browns got yanked to Baltimore, and it looks like you finally got it.
DEN at OAK
When distance runners are training for a competition, they often go to high altitudes to maximize their oxygen intake. Taking that into consideration, expect Denver to run laps around Oakland. They might play football too, but mainly laps. Lots and lots of laps.
NYG at CHI
In theory, these teams should be good. In theory. The ghost of Pat Summerall has been haunting the last half of every season for the giants for some time now. Grossman has been especially grossman esque this year. Don't be surprised if both quarterbacks get suspicious circular brown stains on the butts of their pants as the game goes on. Look closely.
TB at NO
I'm growing tired of picking TB as the Gower Power Points Pick ever other week, but it's a safe damn bet. They are constantly being put down. I don't care if Garcia is questionable, because there is one thing that isn't questionable: Jeff Garcia's unhuman drive to get his team to the playoffs. Not necessarily the superbowl, but the Playoffs, you bet.
CIN at PIT
Pittsburgh has had some unbelieveable loses this year, and I attribute that to Omar Epps being their coach. I've noticed that their loses often coincide with an episode of House where omar gets especially berated. But this week, he was pretty chill, so expect a normal Steelers effort here.
NE at BAL
Researching this game, I read Brian Billick's wikipedia page because I had once heard that he was an 'offensive genius' and I thought to myself, 'Really?' Maybe my senses are wrong. I mean, he does have the most wins in Team History (only other coach: Ted Marchibroda. Yeah,
that Ted Marchibroda). The most surprising thing I learned completely blew my mind, and I hope to God this is true. Brian Billick, after a disappointing pro career, turned to game shows. Game shows, as in more than one show. First, he was on Match Game, where after a 0-5 loss, a panelist quipped 'Failed at football, failed at match game, where will you go now.' He also appeared on an episode of Jeopardy and The Gong Show performing, I shit you not, a 'spider monkey' routine. Now that I think about it, this might be the fourth Horseman of the apocalypse...
ATL at STL
I wish I could say this game was the abomination of the week, but, sadly, I can't (see below). The Greatest Show on Turf meets the Greatest Show In A Pit In Vick's Back Yard. I'm reminded of Aesop's Fable where the eagle (or falcon) picks up the ram and yada, yada, yada drops it. go with the falcons
BUF at WAS
I'll leave this one alone. That Sean Taylor story gets more and more outrageous every day. Never bring a machete to a gun fight.
DET at MIN
A few weeks ago, Detroit was the Cinderella of the System. But if there's one thing God (however you define Him) hates, it's false prophets, and Kitna is not looking too good in his prediction for 10 wins right about now. Neither is that receiver who thought they would get 12 or 13, especially since it's mathmatically impossible. I feel bad for the Ford family, nothing it going well for them now. Not like that Toyota family.
HOU at TEN
Tennessee, another former System Cinderella, has hit hard times as of late, but they still have a chance to grab the second wild card (or even take Jacksonville's for that matter), so expect them to try extra extra hard in this one.
JAC at IND
This year has been god-awful for Peyton Manning commercials. I mean, last year, I loved the 'laser-rocket' arm gag and 'Cut-That-Meat' killed me. But that 'pep talk' shit? and what the hell is Marvin Harrison doing in that water? He's surrounded by dolphins? First of all, that's not bad, that's delightful. If I was Peyton i'd drop the ball and go play with Harrison in the dolphin tank.
NYJ at MIA
Here it is, the Abomination of the Week. When I first thought of this game, I had to leave the room and get some air. A homeless man asked me if I was ok. I told him the Jets were playing the Dolphins, and he said "shit, what them dawfins doin in the air? shit." Sir, I agree. Dolphins-stick to the running game. I feel good things are coming from that Ricky Williams. I forgot to say this last week, but good luck Ricky, it's good to have you back. What's that? Oh... um... the Jets will probably win.
SD at KC
In the battle of cities with short abbreviations, I go with San Diego. A wise man once said something about 'San Diego' being spanish for a whale's something. I laughed until I heard that quote 50 times. Ever since then, I hated Napoleon Dynamite.
SEA at PHI
Talk about Super Bowl Hangovers. These teams are still got so drunk off their super bowl loses that they're still in Denny's waiting for their side of bacon. Instead of Gatorade, they should get pepto bismol.
SF at CAR
At SF, george seifert won two super bowls. At CAR, his third and final season was, according to Wikipedia (yeah, I research these), was a 'disaster.' Look for the panthers to win this for george...
CLE at ARI
CLE, you are the new Cinderella of the System, and that is well deserved. I don't know what it is about you guys, but it just feels good to root for you. The NFL promised you a team after the Original Browns got yanked to Baltimore, and it looks like you finally got it.
DEN at OAK
When distance runners are training for a competition, they often go to high altitudes to maximize their oxygen intake. Taking that into consideration, expect Denver to run laps around Oakland. They might play football too, but mainly laps. Lots and lots of laps.
NYG at CHI
In theory, these teams should be good. In theory. The ghost of Pat Summerall has been haunting the last half of every season for the giants for some time now. Grossman has been especially grossman esque this year. Don't be surprised if both quarterbacks get suspicious circular brown stains on the butts of their pants as the game goes on. Look closely.
TB at NO
I'm growing tired of picking TB as the Gower Power Points Pick ever other week, but it's a safe damn bet. They are constantly being put down. I don't care if Garcia is questionable, because there is one thing that isn't questionable: Jeff Garcia's unhuman drive to get his team to the playoffs. Not necessarily the superbowl, but the Playoffs, you bet.
CIN at PIT
Pittsburgh has had some unbelieveable loses this year, and I attribute that to Omar Epps being their coach. I've noticed that their loses often coincide with an episode of House where omar gets especially berated. But this week, he was pretty chill, so expect a normal Steelers effort here.
NE at BAL
Researching this game, I read Brian Billick's wikipedia page because I had once heard that he was an 'offensive genius' and I thought to myself, 'Really?' Maybe my senses are wrong. I mean, he does have the most wins in Team History (only other coach: Ted Marchibroda. Yeah,
that Ted Marchibroda). The most surprising thing I learned completely blew my mind, and I hope to God this is true. Brian Billick, after a disappointing pro career, turned to game shows. Game shows, as in more than one show. First, he was on Match Game, where after a 0-5 loss, a panelist quipped 'Failed at football, failed at match game, where will you go now.' He also appeared on an episode of Jeopardy and The Gong Show performing, I shit you not, a 'spider monkey' routine. Now that I think about it, this might be the fourth Horseman of the apocalypse...
Week 13 (Guts Week)
Ah, and we're back. Good start to the week. Brett Favre's ironman streak could for the first time be in jeopardy, but reports say he should be back next week. Positive news for Pack fans though, the running game is working and Aaron Rodgers might actually have talent. As for my picks this week I'm going to pull one over on you and not show the indexes that went into these picks, because I took the LSATs and I'm drained so I'll just give you the picks and spreads hard and fast. The indexes if you didn't notice are integral parts of my system but are in most part just a means for me to make fun of my narrow-minded counterpart.
San Diego at Kansas City
Pick: San Diego: The Chargers had a rough go the first time against KC allowing 24 unanswered points in the second half. The Chargers have hopefully realized that the playoffs are theirs to get in a weak AFC West and the Chiefs are reeling after a loss to the Raiders. The home team here will put up a fight and I think this will be closer than the experts think.
Spread: SD -4.5: I like Kansas City to beat the spread. 21-18
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Pick: Indy: The first time these two teams played I went with the home team and Indy handled Jacksonville well. Jacksonville has a realistic chance to win the division if they continue to play well on both sides of the ball. However, Peyton Manning is at that point in the season where he sets in a groove. His bad games are behind him.
Spread: Indy -7: This will be a tough physical game, Jacksonville will keep it close until the 4th quarter. Indy covers.
San Francisco at Carolina
Pick: San Francisco: There was a long time where I said San Fran was the worst team in the league and that may be true, but they found something last week on offense. They are healthy and Carolina is not, both teams are out of playoff contention, but one team is in worse shape.
Spread: Carolina -2.5: San Fran takes this one.
Buffalo at Washington
Pick: Washington: This is an emotional game due to the loss of Sean Taylor. Washington is at home and they want this one. It will be hard for Buffalo to overcome that.
Spread: Washington -6.5: Big spread for such an even matchup, but the emotion factor takes it way behind a ballgame. Washington covers.
Houston at Tennessee
Pick: Houston: Either one of these teams is capable of winning any game because of the brand of football they play. Tennessee's offense though will not be able to keep up with Houston's.
Spread: Tennessee -4: Houston beats it.
Atlanta at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis: After starting the season 0-8 the Rams won 2 in a row and lost a heartbreaker against the first place Seahawks. They proved themselves well enough even when hit with the injury bug to beat a weak Atlanta team.
Spread: OFF: St. Louis
Seattle at Philadelphia
Pick: Seattle: Philly played a hell of a game against the powerful Pats, and maybe just maybe they can win against anyone. One game with a pumped up AJ Feeley is not enough to run with this team. Seattle has found a new facet/wrinkle in their offense: The Passing game. They'll win through the air.
Spread: Philly -3: I think Seattle will beat this and then some as long as they can do better than the Pats did against the Eagles' middle of the field passing attack.
Detroit at Minnesota:
Pick: Minnesota: Adrian Peterson is back and the Vikings did fine without him. They'll do better than fine against a Lions team that has been disappointing since their fast start.
Spread: Minnesota -3: Cover
NY Jets at Miami:
Pick: Jets: This is the game to pick Miami. I just don't feel it, not in this gut. I wanted to, but I can't. I think the Jets will run the ball well and offset a reenergized Miami offense.
Spread: Miami -1: Jets beat it.
Cleveland at Arizona:
Pick: Cleveland: The Browns are on fire, they'll be in warm weather. This game could be a high scoring contest. I expect it to be. Shootout. Cleveland is a playoff team people.
Spread: Cleveland PK: Cleveland
Denver at Oakland:
Pick: Denver: Denver came off what might have been their toughest loss of the season and good for them they play the Raiders. Oakland needs to start thinking about the future which is what they did at the draft but a holdout negated that. While they're trying to find themselves, Denver is looking to catch San Diego.
Spread: Denver -3.5: Cover.
NY Giants at Chicago:
Pick: NY Giants: I really don't like picking the Giants after Week 9, but my gut tells me I should. This is what they do. They'll win this one and people will talk about them again, only to be horribly disappointed in the end.
Spread: NY Giants -2.5: They'll cover, but it will be ugly.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans: Tampa is playing well. But this is a game the Saints need and they're at home and everything points to an upset. Even though New Orleans is favored, this could still be considered a good win over a team that controls its destiny.
Spread: New Orleans: Cover, in a surprising rout. 35-20
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh scored 3 points in their win against Miami in a drenched monday night game. New sod was flown in to Heinz field and the Steelers will use it to their advantage. This one will be high scoring. The leg of solid Jeff Reed will win it.
Spread: Pitt -7.5: Cincy will beat this one. Close game.
New England at Baltimore
Pick: New England: The Patriots had an unexpected test against the McNabb-less Eagles. This is not a test. Kyle Boller has always been a joke, expect him to keep that up.
Spread: New England -20: New England will cover, score 56 points and reassert its dominance after a "humiliating" win against the Eagles.
There you have them. Gut Picks for Gut people. Stay Beautiful.
San Diego at Kansas City
Pick: San Diego: The Chargers had a rough go the first time against KC allowing 24 unanswered points in the second half. The Chargers have hopefully realized that the playoffs are theirs to get in a weak AFC West and the Chiefs are reeling after a loss to the Raiders. The home team here will put up a fight and I think this will be closer than the experts think.
Spread: SD -4.5: I like Kansas City to beat the spread. 21-18
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Pick: Indy: The first time these two teams played I went with the home team and Indy handled Jacksonville well. Jacksonville has a realistic chance to win the division if they continue to play well on both sides of the ball. However, Peyton Manning is at that point in the season where he sets in a groove. His bad games are behind him.
Spread: Indy -7: This will be a tough physical game, Jacksonville will keep it close until the 4th quarter. Indy covers.
San Francisco at Carolina
Pick: San Francisco: There was a long time where I said San Fran was the worst team in the league and that may be true, but they found something last week on offense. They are healthy and Carolina is not, both teams are out of playoff contention, but one team is in worse shape.
Spread: Carolina -2.5: San Fran takes this one.
Buffalo at Washington
Pick: Washington: This is an emotional game due to the loss of Sean Taylor. Washington is at home and they want this one. It will be hard for Buffalo to overcome that.
Spread: Washington -6.5: Big spread for such an even matchup, but the emotion factor takes it way behind a ballgame. Washington covers.
Houston at Tennessee
Pick: Houston: Either one of these teams is capable of winning any game because of the brand of football they play. Tennessee's offense though will not be able to keep up with Houston's.
Spread: Tennessee -4: Houston beats it.
Atlanta at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis: After starting the season 0-8 the Rams won 2 in a row and lost a heartbreaker against the first place Seahawks. They proved themselves well enough even when hit with the injury bug to beat a weak Atlanta team.
Spread: OFF: St. Louis
Seattle at Philadelphia
Pick: Seattle: Philly played a hell of a game against the powerful Pats, and maybe just maybe they can win against anyone. One game with a pumped up AJ Feeley is not enough to run with this team. Seattle has found a new facet/wrinkle in their offense: The Passing game. They'll win through the air.
Spread: Philly -3: I think Seattle will beat this and then some as long as they can do better than the Pats did against the Eagles' middle of the field passing attack.
Detroit at Minnesota:
Pick: Minnesota: Adrian Peterson is back and the Vikings did fine without him. They'll do better than fine against a Lions team that has been disappointing since their fast start.
Spread: Minnesota -3: Cover
NY Jets at Miami:
Pick: Jets: This is the game to pick Miami. I just don't feel it, not in this gut. I wanted to, but I can't. I think the Jets will run the ball well and offset a reenergized Miami offense.
Spread: Miami -1: Jets beat it.
Cleveland at Arizona:
Pick: Cleveland: The Browns are on fire, they'll be in warm weather. This game could be a high scoring contest. I expect it to be. Shootout. Cleveland is a playoff team people.
Spread: Cleveland PK: Cleveland
Denver at Oakland:
Pick: Denver: Denver came off what might have been their toughest loss of the season and good for them they play the Raiders. Oakland needs to start thinking about the future which is what they did at the draft but a holdout negated that. While they're trying to find themselves, Denver is looking to catch San Diego.
Spread: Denver -3.5: Cover.
NY Giants at Chicago:
Pick: NY Giants: I really don't like picking the Giants after Week 9, but my gut tells me I should. This is what they do. They'll win this one and people will talk about them again, only to be horribly disappointed in the end.
Spread: NY Giants -2.5: They'll cover, but it will be ugly.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans: Tampa is playing well. But this is a game the Saints need and they're at home and everything points to an upset. Even though New Orleans is favored, this could still be considered a good win over a team that controls its destiny.
Spread: New Orleans: Cover, in a surprising rout. 35-20
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh scored 3 points in their win against Miami in a drenched monday night game. New sod was flown in to Heinz field and the Steelers will use it to their advantage. This one will be high scoring. The leg of solid Jeff Reed will win it.
Spread: Pitt -7.5: Cincy will beat this one. Close game.
New England at Baltimore
Pick: New England: The Patriots had an unexpected test against the McNabb-less Eagles. This is not a test. Kyle Boller has always been a joke, expect him to keep that up.
Spread: New England -20: New England will cover, score 56 points and reassert its dominance after a "humiliating" win against the Eagles.
There you have them. Gut Picks for Gut people. Stay Beautiful.
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