The Week After Tomorrow

Hello one and all.

In last week's unfinished post (some call it laziness, I call it avant garde), I made a few statements that I would like to revisit:

1. This is the make or break week for the System.

In my view, it was. It was week 14, and if the stats aren't firmly entrenched by this time, they never will be. By Week 14 a few teams are comfortable in their playoff chances, but most are jockeying for position. And the teams that don't have a chance haven't seen the brown-colored light at the end of the turd tunnel, so they haven't given up yet. As it turned out, this was a Week to Remember for the System (starring Mandy Moore).

2. Picking the winners will be easy

And how. For those keeping score, the System went 15-1 picking winners. Feel that chill up your spine? Yeah, that's the God of Numbers telling you "I told you so... and now I'm tickling your back." The only loss was my baby Bucs who were without a Garcia and who went up against a Texans team that is about 20 times better with Andre Johnson (avg. 15 yds/catch and 5 catchs/TD). Unfortunately, Andre hasn't played enough games to significantly influence the System (until this week). I guess the loss was just Karma getting back at me for all the Sage Rosenfels jokes I cracked (or as I like to call him: Thyme Guildenstern).

Anyway, I was very pleased with the performance, but as of now, I don't expect the System to perform that well on a consistent basis.

3. Picking against the spread won't be easy

And how. In the worst week so far picking the spread, I went 8-8. Notice how I said "I" went 8-8 instead of "the System"? It due to the biggest flaw I have uncovered so far in this latest version of the System: Me. I let my own beliefs such as "11 point victories aren't as common or predictable as you might think" cloud my judgment and bias the choices. I have yet to figure out how I can take the System's point differential and transform that into a quantifiable way to predict the actual point differential, but I will. It might have to wait for the offseason though, or at least Christmas break.

That said, I'll get to my thoughts on tonight's game at Houston. Notice the Andre Johnson stats I put earlier? Yeah, they serve nicely to justify my pick. As far as the System is concerned, it's nearly a gimme, with Denver having the slight lead. The bookies in Vegas also had the same idea. When I checked the spread, it already differed from teh one Zach used, but whatever. However, with homefield advantage and the impact of Andre Johnson, I will pick Houston to beat the spread. Mathmatically, the games can't get much closer than this. Now, if only that damn God of Numbers would stop trying to tickle my bum.