If you've been a loyal follower of GVN, you've noticed that I've been pretty bad at updating in the last week. And because an series of unfortunate incidents, I wasn't able to pick as I would have liked last week: according to the numbers. Part of the blames goes to NFL.com for being bad updaters, but most goes to me. I know I let my fans down.

Which leads me to my next point: I don't think I have any fans. Everyone I've talked to has said they prefer guts... guts is their man... that's how they would choose games... That was both heartbreaking and disappointing. I couldn't help coming to this simple conclusion: they are all scared. Scared to do the math. Scared to realize that patterns are everywhere, and statistics matter. Scared that there isn't something inside of us (call it a soul, call it chi, whatever) that is supernaturally guiding us towards a secret knowledge of the future. Scared that maybe, just maybe, numbers control everything and all history has been and will be predicted by the laws of nature and we are powerless to exert any free will upon it. Scared.

But I could care less. Go on believing what you would like. I will sit here quietly eating my nachos (which, according to the laws of nature, are delicious), secure in my acceptance of the truth. So, without further ado, here is my (The System's) prediction for tonight's game:

As you can see, this game isn't even close. Both teams have excellent offenses, but Dallas' is more explosive. Both teams have good defenses, but Dallas' keeps opponents out of the endzone. Finally, with a slightly tougher schedule and homefield advantage (what's that Guts? you didn't think I included homefield advantage? of course I did, there's nothing more numbery than homefield advantage), the game is Dallas' to lose. GB is good, and they will be good, but they are a young team that isn't ready for the big time. I can't wait till next year, when modern science develops a way to attach Bret Favre's Head and Arms to aaron rodger's nimble body. That'll secure the team's future and open up a lot of cap space. What will happen to Aaron Rodger's head? I don't know, but I think Roger Goddell will find a good use for it (think Robocop).

This is shaping up to be a good week. Keep in touch, America.

Thursday Pick

Hello everyone.
There is one game on Thursday that warrants a pick and it's a good one. Some writers are dubbing it "NFC Super Bowl" to them I say, simply, stop it. I'm not going to jump on that bandwagon, this is a huge game, 10-1 pack vs. 10-1 cowboys, but it's not the NFC Super Bowl. No that designation belongs to the NFC championship game where I am positive these two teams will meet again, probably with at most, 2 losses each. That's the big one. This one is big, but not as big.

But let's do the picking.

Green Bay at Dallas
Pick: Dallas: Saying this one was hard to pick would be an understatement. How do you pick this game? I have half a notion to wait til they play again (which they will) and just pick that one. Screw this one. You think this game is hyped, wait til then. Jeez. Anyway, here's the gut logic. Dallas is the home team. Despite what "Nums" says, that matters. Especially when Brett Favre, the greatest active QB and arguably one of the best ever HAS NEVER WON AT TEXAS STADIUM.
Here's what I say. Brett is breaking records every week it seems. But I think at least for the regular season, this one will have to be broken later. I think the Cowboys just played their most complete game of the season last week against the Jets and just keep getting better, while the Packers are suffering key injuries on a defense that has really helped them along. I think the Cowboys will win this one at home in what I hope is a shootout but expect to be more of a cautious calculating, intermediate passing game by both teams, before it explodes into a blast of a 4th quarter.
The Packers will lose this one, in fact, my gut tells me they have to in order to set up one very special stage. Picture this. The Packers lose in week 13 to an equal Cowboys team. They win out, Brett is angry. The Cowboys stay hot. Tony "Tex-arican-eskimo-lankan-ese" Romo avoids the stupid bonehead play bug in the playoffs and these teams meet again in what could be Brett's last NFC championship game, a shot at another MVP award and the biggest game of the season to that point, with all the records in hand and a shot to get revenge against the Cowboys and pick up that one huge win in Dallas that has eluded him. The Pack will win that one. But until then; it's the Cowboys' day.

Guts Index: I'll be stuffing myself with health food and beer (Health Month!)
Heart Index: Both these teams are playing with a lot of heart.
America Index: This is what we live for. We were brought up watching these teams win football games in the NFC. These are the glory days.
Spread: Dallas -7: Surprisingly big spread for this game. I'll say 34-28 in favor of the Cowboys. Packers beat the spread on this one.

My Fly is Down at Work But I Ain't Zipping It!

Week 12 Tuesday Rewind

And I’m back baby. Sort of. 11-5 this week, brings the total to 38-22. Although, I think Nums over there picked the same games as me. So that would keep his lead at 2. Plenty of football left to be picking though. But, since he didn’t use his precious system, it seems he had to steal a little bit of mine, which is good anytime anywhere. In fact, I’m willing to go as far as to force him into early retirement or fine him like the Patriots for cheating. But I won’t, because I’m above that.

Other orders of business:

First, on an extremely sad note, Sean Taylor, strong safety for the Washington Redskins was shot during a robbery last night at his home. He was 24. Expect an extensive Guts Profile this week; he was one of the hardest hitting, gutsiest players ever to come from the U. CBS puts it best… His death was nothing short of “sad and unnecessary”

Moving on…
Sorry for not getting a guts profile up. With the holiday and a lot of stuff at work, it was tough, but I promise I’ll throw two at you sometime this week.

Week 13 is shaping up to really make our break some playoff pushes. Also, the Cowboys and Packers play in what should be the NFC game of the year for now (these teams will probably meet again)

That said, let’s get on to the gutsiest awards this side of the VMAs. The Tuesday Awards! Officially: The Gutsies! This week I’m giving out Just 6. The 7th is retired this week in honor of Sean Taylor

Participants in the slate of Thursday games are included.


Because I Just Love to Break Your Heart Award:

Winner: Jeff Reed

Starting off with the most recent award, Jeff Reed wins his first Gutsy for his game-winning field goal against the Dolphins. Not only was he the only one to score points on Monday night in awful weather (terrible, there was a bolt of lightning that must have hit right outside my window) he did it in dramatic fashion, handing the Fins their 11th loss of the season and spoiling the return of Ricky. (God hates Ricky Williams) It was sloppy, it was ugly. It was the lowest scoring game since 1993. Thankfully it’s over. But even with all the rain and sludge and slop, there was one moment of brightness that shone in the night sky, and that was Jeff.

Honorable mention: Ben Roethlisberger for his 18-21 performance through the air. Only 3 incompletions is impressive.

We Ended A lot of Embarrassing Streaks Today Award:

Winner(s): The Oakland Raiders

Great job team! You did it. I’ve been screaming about your potential for 22 years and this is how you thank me. By winning when I needed you to lose. But that’s good. Good for you, you did it. You beat Kansas City. Guts, tell them what they’ve won. Well Oakland you snapped 3 records of note. 1) and most embarrassing: You hadn’t (before sun.) beaten a division opponent AN AFC WEST TEAM!!! In 17 games! 17 games against division opponents and you hadn’t won any. Now you did. 2) You beat Kansas City (perennial mediocre team) for the first time in 9 games. 3) You had your first 100 yard rusher in Kansas City in 29 years! Justin Fargas, you have done something that Napoleon Kauffman and the other great Raider running backs of the last 29 years could not, run at arrowhead. Great Job raiders, there’s something to build on. Now put in JaMarcus.

The Chris Farley Memorial “Almost Heroes” Award:

Winner: A.J. Feeley and The Philadelphia Eagles

IMPRESSIVE. One of the best losses I have seen this year, and against the best team in the league at that. No one, not even the Colts impressed me as much as the Eagles did against the Pats. And let’s not stop there, A.J. Feeley, Kudos to you brother. You haven’t started a game since ’04 and you were 1-0 against the dynastic Pats coming in to this game. You were sharp, and you performed well. You let it slip away a little at the end, but you’re supposed to, you’re AJ Feeley. The Patriots didn’t really make many mistakes or turnovers, you just stopped them Philly, and you scared them good. Unfortunately, despite the Guts with which you all played, New England is still 11-0 and you are still at the bottom of the NFC East. Have no fear though, the Giants will see you soon.

Where in the World is Jeff Hostetler When you need him? Award:

Winner: Tom Coughlin and the New York “Football” Giants

I’m going to keep this description short and sweet. The Giants are a bad second half team, in fact, like the Madden Curse (you just don’t want to believe it exists) the Giants collapse in the second half every season (Thank you Jim Fassel, we’d like our clipboard back) like clockwork. They’re doing it again, just watch. While I usually don’t like to give out awards for this sort of thing, the Giants’ late season collapse in progress bears noting.

Honorable Mention: Jeff Hostetler

We Don’t Look Ahead, We Know The Other One’s Coming Award:

Winners: Brett Favre and Tony Romo

Reports say that Tony Romo was a sweet Mexi-talian from Wisconsi-Texaco who loved his Mama’s cooking and picking up spike (the neighbor’s dog) for swimming lessons. But there was something else Tony Romo was, he was a little Guata-rican-ese boy who wanted to be just like Brett Favre. Well, come Thursday, Nov. 29, Tony Romo will have the chance to be better than Brett (at least for a moment) on the field. The 10-1 pack play the 10-1 boys, both teams are doing better than they were expected to and everyone will be watching this game. So where does the award come in for week 12? Neither of these quarterbacks showed any signs in their games against the Jets and Lions that they were looking ahead. They didn’t experience a letdown despite the importance of the week after, they played that game like it was the most important when in actuality the next one was much more meaningful. That takes guts. Also for those of you keeping score, that’s Brett’s second Gutsy in 2007


How you gonna forget about me? Ain’t no other like me. I’m the best Award:

Winner: Chad Johnson

Smile for the camera Chad! Oh wait, we’ll smile for yours. Good work on Sunday. While the Titans were busy playing themselves out of contention in a tough AFC South/AFC you decided to bust out and do what you’ve been “trying” to do all season. I’m not going to put any blame on you for your lack of production. With a weak defense and the profile you have, you were the subject of a lot of bunch coverages and double coverages. You were quiet, well, quiet for you, lying in wait, planning your next touchdown celebration. This week you got the chance and you jumped on it. You had a career high 12 catches, in the process you broke the Bengals reception record, and you had 3 touchdowns. Big day! You got to celebrate, and with flair. Congrats Chad on your first Gutsy!


Thank you all for reading. Coming up soon will be my Thursday pick and the Guts Profiles of the weak.

Once again, let’s remember Sean Taylor for the player he was. I know I always drafted him 1st on my defense in Sega 2K5.

Be good to each other.

Random Number Generation

Due to travelling and my parent's computer (windows 98, 56k modem, no excel, doesn't show the color red), i wasn't able to update the system this week. That said, I don't want to forfeit this week, so i'll make picks now by what I think the system would pick and if i can't decide, i'll use the only statistical method at my disposal, a coin flip:

SEA vs. STL (+3)
SEA wins, covers

MIN at NYG (-7)
NY wins, covers

NO at CAR (+2.5)
NO wins, doesn't cover

BUF at JAC (-8)
Jacksonville wins, doesn't cover

WAS at TB (-3.5)
TB wins, doesn't cover

HOU at CLE (-3)
CLE wins, covers

TEN at CIN (+1.5)
Tennessee for win and cover. This is the Gower Power Random Points Pick I Guess for week 12.

SF at ARI (-10.5)
ARI wins, doesn't cover

OAK at KC (-5)
KC wins, OAK beats spread

BAL at SD (-9)
SD wins, covers

DEN at CHI (-2)
Denver win and beat spread

PHI at NE (-25)
NE wins, covers

MIA at PIT (-16)
PIT wins, covers


Side note: I made $100 bucks last night playing the slots, so the coin flips are in my favor.

Week 12 Picks

Happy Black Friday everyone, it’s time for the gutsiest picks in all of America. Thanksgiving day was very good to me. I had a great meal, a great nap, and I started 3-0, 2-1 against the spread, picking the only way I know how, with balls.

Week 12:

Washington at Tampa Bay:
Pick: Tampa Bay: Jeff Garcia is so close to the playoffs, the place he loves so much. The Tampa defense actually looks like Bucs’ defenses of old. This should be a good game to watch.
G: Jon Gruden is a good coach, he’s got guts.
H: 2 hearts: one for each of the TDs Jeff Garcia will throw in the 4th quarter
A: Americans love standing in lines on black Friday
Spread: Tampa -3.5: I’ll take the Redskins against this one.

Tennessee at Cincinnati:
Pick: Tennessee: Tennessee is coming off back to back losses, the Bengals are awful. While many argue (including myself at points) that the Bengals could just come out slinging any week, many are tired of waiting.
G: The Bengals are a gutless team.
H: 1 Heart: for the city of Cincinnati. Not only are they close enough to be considered part of Kentucky, their football team is one of the biggest disappointments of 2007.
A: This bud’s for you.
Spread: Tennessee -1.5: Tennessee will cover this one and continue to compete in the tough AFC South

New Orleans at Carolina:
Pick: New Orleans: The NFC South is bad. New Orleans and Carolina are 2nd and 3rd in the division with identical crappy records. While it’s Tampa’s division to win (or lose) New Orleans has the best chance of catching them because they have the better team. Carolina is playing with either an injured 40+ year old at QB or Fresno State Failure David Carr.
G: Creole!
H: 6 Hearts
A: Are there any Panthers in Carolina?
Spread: New Orleans -3: I’ll take New Orleans to play well and cover.

Houston at Cleveland:
Pick: Cleveland: This is a tough game to pick. Really this might be the best matchup of the weekend. Both teams are hot. The Texans are healthy and they haven’t lost when Andre Johnson is healthy. This is a scary game for any analyst. I’m going with the Browns to win. They are the favorite and they’re at home. Besides that, Cleveland has blew 4th quarter leads two weeks in a row. That doesn’t bother me, in fact, I think if anything it showed Cleveland that they can make mistakes and still win games.
G: Oh Phil Dawson
H: 1 Heart: one more win for Cleveland
A: Sit, Cleveland. Stay, Cleveland
Spread: Cleveland -4: I have to take the Texans against the spread here, if not for anything else but to save my ass.

At this point, I don’t have the time or the stamina or the liver to explain the indexes or why I picked the games. It’s more important to get them up and sexy for all of you to read.

Seattle at St. Louis
Pick: Seattle
Spread: Seattle -3: Very small spread for how well Seattle is playing, especially throwing the ball. Seattle will cover

Minnesota vs. NYG:
Pick: NYG
Spread: NYG -7.5: I like Minnesota to beat the spread on this one. And that’s guts

Buffalo at Jacksonville:
Pick: Jacksonville
Spread: Jax -7.5: The Bills saw what it was like to play a real team last week in New England, but I think they’ll bounce back strong however, Marshawn Lynch is still out. I think they’ll still beat the spread

Oakland at Kansas City:
Pick: Kansas City
Kansas City -6: I like Oakland against this spread, but KC will win outright even though Priest Holmes is thinking about retirement

Denver at Chicago:
Pick: Denver
Spread: Chicago -2.5: I guess this is technically an upset, Denver is playing better football, the gut goes with the rocky mountain gang.

San Francisco at Arizona:
Pick: Arizona
Spread: Arizona -10.5: Believe it or not I think the Cards will cover. The niners are the worst team in the league.

Baltimore at San Diego:
Pick: San Diego
Spread: SD -9.5: It’s hard to believe that the chargers and the ravens were 14-2 and 13-3 last year respectively, it’s a far cry, but… the Chargers are going to be a playoff team in a weak afc west. They won’t cover this one.

Philadelphia at New England
Pick: New England
Spread: New England-17.5: Wow the Patriots are fun to watch. They’ll cover. Sorry Philly, you’re next.

Monday Night

Miami at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pitt
Spread: Pitt -16: Way too big a spread, I like Miami against it.

That’s it for the week, I apologize for my hastiness, but my hangover is massive. Maybe I’ll edit today sometime. Oh and if you didn’t see, LSU became the latest victim in this year’s BCS hijinks. Take care of yourselves and the children.

SYSTEM ERROR SYSTEM ERROR

Ok... This isn't the end of the System, but it is the biggest emergency in It's young, promising life. The NFL (I can't believe this is even happening) hasn't updated the stats on NFL.com from week 11... That's right, it hasn't updated its website. So that means, as far as the System is concerned, Randy Moss never caught four touchdowns, Pittsburgh never left poop stains in the bed and (this is the worst part) America didn't see Tony Romo smile.

I really didn't have a contingency plan for this, and I hope the stats go up soon enough. For now, though, I'll try picking the Thanksgiving day games and hope to God, with all his beardly goodness, that I don't have to pick the rest of the games like this. Luckily, the matchups on thursday are pretty lopsided.

Game Previews:

GB at DET:

I thought last week would be the week Bret Favre threw his arm out. I was wrong. It will be this week. That said, the spread is surprisingly low, so I have to go with GB.

NYJ at DAL:

If nobody will say it, I will: Wade Phillips is an old fat kid. He's just a fat kid that got bigger, but never grew up. He's like that little fat kid in elementary school who lit up as soon as he saw his mom packed an extra brownie for his fat-ass mouth. Watch him. After every touch down (and there will likely be several), he jumps up and giggles. He sits on the sidelines and smiles and craps while Troy Aikman's perma-backup Jason Garrett tries to prove that he really was a good quarterback who just never had a chance.

I must say, however, that for a fat man, Phillips has surprising dexterity in his jowls. The rest of his body? Not so much. God I hate him. Maybe it was growing up watching Ray Rhodes and Rich Kotite, but something doesn't sit well when I see a happy football coach. Regardless, I pick DAL all the way.

IND at ATL:

If there's one thing Zach likes, it's "Athletes playing on Turf in a Dome." And on Thursday, we will be graced by two teams with (according to him) great athletes playing in domes on turf, DET and IND. I quote: "it’s on turf. This favors playmakers. Indy has more" He said that last week, and i'm sure he'll say it again. And while I think Indy will win its game, I don't think they can cover a 12 point spread, even against a team whose fans chanted for Joey 'Did I Do That?' Harrington last week. Especially with a Peyton Manning that has thrown 7 interceptions in two games and only threw 160 yds against KC. They are in major injury trouble on offense.

Off all the weeks Michael Vick chose to enter prison, he chose the one before thanksgiving and possibly the only nationally televised Falcons game for the rest of the year. He might be the first person to voluntarily enter prison to avoid an awkward dinner conversation with his family.

Thanksgiving Day Picks

Gobble Gobble...
The time has come. Every man and some women's favorite part of football season: getting drunk on Thanksgiving Eve with people you haven't seen in years (and probably didn't want to), waking up hungover to the smell of Thanksgiving Dinner being prepared by those brave souls who didn't go out Wednesday, and then sitting stuffed and happy, doped up on Tryptophan, watching football.

Hell, it's so popular, the NFL added an extra game recently. All in all, this festival is one day where we can all be happy. So here are your picks for the three Thursday games. If I get around to it I'll pick Sunday's games on Thanksgiving, but I'd expect them on Black Friday. As always, you can set your clock to these gut locks. The three proven indexes are gold. Be good to each other this holiday.

Green Bay vs. Detroit:
Pick: Green Bay: A Thanksgiving Day tradition unlike any other....at least as of late, the Lions have had the pleasure of getting torched by some of today's great quarterbacks. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are just two of the Qbs who have smoked the Lions secondary in the past couple years. This year, one of the greatest, most durable, most respected quarterbacks in the league, Brett Favre gets his shot at the Lions. I don't see this scenario spelling a victory for Detroit, and neither does my Gut. Although they're much improved, they're still new to this winning business (They've matched their highest win total in seven seasons under Millen) as you saw the last two weeks. Green Bay. I mean, my American heart-gut couldn't possibly pick against Brett Favre in what might be his last Thanksgiving Day game.
Guts Index (G): I don't know if anyone feels the same, but there's nothing like ripping out the inside of a turkey, then boiling and eating it.
Heart Index (H): 1 heart: Oh how John Madden's heart will pump this Thursday.
America Index (A): This country was founded when the Pilgrims befriended the Native Americans and ate maize, maybe there was Turkey involved, maybe not. Maybe we just hated Maize and then got pissed and won this country fair and square.
Spread: Green Bay -3.5: Look for Green Bay to win by 10


New York Jets vs. Dallas
Pick: Dallas: Another tradition, much like the first, Dallas gets to play at home on Thanksgiving. Jerry Jones stands on the sidelines, with his hands in his pinstripe pockets, fiddling his solid gold balls and jingling change loud enough for "Fat Kid" Wade Phillips to hear and come running with a smile on his face and get candy from Uncle Jerry. This is beautiful. More beautiful than Wade Phillips' jowls, however, will be the play of the whole Cowboys team. They're 9-1, Terrell Owens is playing "within the system" and Romo looks like he might be worth 67.5 million. I think the Cowboys will walk off the field 10-1.
G: Being labeled America's team and playing for America like the Cowboys have done this year. That takes guts. A strong gut rating percentage ratio of 4.75 for this one.
H: Right around the time this game starts (4:30) Everyone will be starting to or in the middle of getting into Thanksgiving dinner, it's where the heart is. Meanwhile, someone will be playing football, and our hearts go out to them.
A: This land is our land, this land is your land.
Spread: Dallas -14: It's thanksgiving! Give a little love. NY loses by only 13 and beats the spread.


Indianapolis vs. Atlanta
Pick: Indianapolis: While some may argue that Indianapolis is just a shell of the Colts B.P. 2007 (That's before the Patriot Game 2007) they are much better than Atlanta which is just plain sad. Poor team. If they have anything left to be thankful for after the start of this season, I applaud them. This game won't make anything better. In a tradition richer than any other on thanksgiving, the Colts will play ANOTHER game on the NFL Network.. and it's what we all look forward to sleeping through.
G: Michael Vick was on the show Guts starring Moira Quirk. Now he's going to be enjoying his Turkey that he no doubt had another Turkey fight against with the plan of eating the loser, I've got nothing.
H: 1 heart: For Bobby Petrino, who walked into this Atlanta job with high hopes which were quickly dashed. Now all he has left is knowing he can draft Brian Brohm with the 5th pick in the draft (after Miami, San Francisco, Oakland, and St. Louis) and rebuild Louisville
A: If there's one thing we love to see on thanksgiving, it's Peyton manning throw 6 tds. Do it again big guy!
Spread: Indy -11.5: They'll cover, it's time to shine.


Bonus pick: (11) USC vs. (7) Arizona St.
Raise your hand if you forgot about College Football on Thanksgiving! Big match-up that could shape the Pac-10 (especially with Dixon out in Oregon) winner of this game could very well be on their way to the Rose Bowl. I like Arizona St. to play Dennis Erickson football and win this one. USC's dynasty may be over (emphasize the may, they're a recruiting juggernaut). Word to the wise Pete Carroll, get out while there are still so many bad teams in the NFL who might need coaches with your resume.


Well there you go, enjoy the picks, print them out, fun for the whole family. Sit around your table and be thankful you have someone this handsome and this gutsy picking games for you. I know I'm thankful for what I have. I'm also thankful for comfortable pajamas, warm apple cider, and hugs. I'm thankful for Kevin Spacey movies, choreographed dancing, and steak knives. I'm thankful for backyard football, laser tag, and mittens without individual finger slots. Most of all I'm thankful for friends, family, and you, my fans. Stay warm, and be careful out there.