Where the hell is Nums?
Here are my picks:
Red Zone:
1759ers v. Roughnecks: Our teams are absolutely even in my mind. Our quarterbacks will cancel each other out, but I believe I have a SLIGHT advantage at RB. 1759ers 67-66.
Fightendrunks v. Old Rusty Nails: I don't know what to do. I hate Tom, but Biechy can't seem to find a way to win. Nails 71-62
Blood Money v. Danny's Donkies: The name change didn't help last week and despite my predictions that Dan would return to glory, he's doing his best to make me wrong. This week, he makes me look goooood. Donkies 80-47.
Hells Satans v. Kibbles and Vicks: I agree with Teada that John will keep it under 50. However, this game will be weirdly close. Kibbles 50-49. P.S. Jeff, trade me one of your starting receivers.
Flying Hellfish v. Xperience: Al... you're a former champion, a friend and a bitter rival. I respect you and, other than when you play me, I hate to see you lose. I will be sad this week. X 60-58.
Sloptarts v. Robocops: James, you whipped me last week and whipped me good. Sloptarts find a way to win this one. See you in a week Teada. Jamaal Charles will have a huge game, and make huge strides to getting the majority of the carries in KC. Slop 65-48.
In the NFL:
In my first week picking against the spread, I went a very respectable 9-7. I should also toot my own horn and point out that I picked Houston to win by exactly 3, which they did in overtime. I should also humble myself by noting that I picked Arizona to beat the spread in Atlanta. OUCH.
This week:
Tennessee @ NYG: Current Line: NYG -3
Pick: Tennessee. Joseph Addai shredded the Giants overpriced D-Line. Chris Johnson will bounce back with a dominant performance.
Buffalo @ New England: Current Line: New England -14.
Pick: New England. Buffalo is really bad. Harvard's Ryan Fitzpatrick is not good. Should have drafted Clausen.
Cleveland @ Baltimore: Current Line: Baltimore -10.5.
Pick: Baltimore. Baltimore will win this game by 100 and make me look good even though it's a HUGE spread for a Ravens offense that hasn't produced yet. Harrison is the real deal. If CLE can find a way to pass the ball, he'll run for miles, not against BAL, but just saying.
Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay: Current Line: Pittsburgh -2.5.
Pick: Pittsburgh. I think if Charlie Batch can avoid mistakes and if Mendenhall carries the ball 25 times, they will win. Tampa Bay is not bad, not at all, but Pittsburgh's defense looks as good as it has in years. Polamalu is healthy. Pittsburgh could have a very good season and will ensure they will be no worse than 3-1 when Ben returns.
Cincinnati @ Carolina: Current Line: Cincy -3.
Pick: Cincinnati. Clausen will play a lot better than expected. Steve Smith is an older, wiser, more experienced version of Golden Tate whom Clausen had a lot of fun with in college. Expect Jimmy to lean on Smith against a weak Bengals secondary. Cincy has too many weapons on offense.
Atlanta @ New Orleans: New Orleans -4.
Pick: New Orleans. I don't see any let down here, even without Reggie. Saints are for real.
San Francisco @ Kansas City: SF -2.5.
Pick: San Francisco. I have to believe this is the week SF breaks through. The Seattle game was a fluke and I believe you saw what this team is really capable of against the defending champs on Monday Night.
Detroit @ Minnesota: Minnesota -11.
Pick: Detroit. Minnesota will win, Favre will have a fine game and people will say he's finally settled in. Detroit will play tough and lose by a handful like they did against Philly.
Dallas @ Houston: Houston -3.
Pick: Houston. I've always found myself rooting for the Texans and in the past I have labeled them a perpetual 8-8 team. This year they look fun and explosive. They'll win big and Wade Phillips will swallow his own head with shame while Jerry Jones urinates on his future burial site.
Washington @ St. Louis: Washington -3.5
Pick: Washington. McNabb will not throw for over 400 yards again. He'll throw for 298 and 2 Tds and that will be enough.
San Diego @ Seattle: San Diego -5.5
Pick: San Diego. Seattle has some weapons, but they need something fresh at quarterback. San Diego is tooled up and really should be undefeated if it weren't for the weather gods week 1.
Oakland @ Arizona: Arizona -4.
Pick: Oakland. I truly have NO idea how Oakland is almost 0-2 and only beat the Rams by 2 points and lost to the Titans by 22. This team has looked great running the football and has one of the best passing defenses in the league. Oh wait, QUARTERBACK. Give the ball to Jason Campbell and for the love of god run slants.
Philadelphia @ Jacksonville: Philadelphia -3.
Pick: Jacksonville. I like what Vick is doing. But for some reason I feel like Jacksonville is gonna win. This is my GUTSY pick of the week.
Indianapolis @ Denver: Indianapolis -5.5.
Pick: Indianapolis. You all better take the Texans seriously, the Colts are incredible and they whipped them. I laugh every time I see a Colts matchup. Peyton is ridiculously good. The only problem he might have in Denver is the possibility that the 4 tds he'll throw will go a little further than usual.
New York Jets @ Miami: Miami -2.5.
Pick: Miami. It's trendy to pick Miami. They made me look good last week. I'm sticking with them. If they can hold the Jets to less than 10 points, they should be able to put up 13 against the Jets defense.
Green Bay @ Chicago: Green Bay -3.
Pick: Green Bay. I'm sorry. I can't buy into the Bears. And even if I could, the Packers are just good. If they can make a trade for a more complete back than Brandon Jackson, they'll be unstoppable.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Friday, September 17, 2010
Guts-pology
I apologize for not getting Sunday's picks up. I was in South Bend, IN, (with Nums coincidentally) at the Michigan/Notre Dame game. It was a heartbreaking defeat for our beloved Irish. Anyway, while I was there Nums informed me, much to my chagrin, that he was seriously unable to use his BS number system without data. So he can't start picking until that's ready. He's weak. I went 0-1 last week. I picked the vikings to beat a 4.5 point spread and they lost by 5. Close. All that means is that I'm tuned in and ready to pick.
NFL Week 2:
Arizona @ Atlanta: Atlanta -6.5. I've got to think Atlanta's offense will show up this weekend at home. A lot of other "experts" are counting Arizona out of this game because it's an East Coast game. This is not in New England and it's on turf. I like Arizona to beat this spread in my GUTSY pick of the week.
Pick: Arizona
Tampa Bay @ Carolina: OFF. I have to pick this game straight up. I like Tampa Bay and I think they have a decent future ahead of them with Morgan Freeman, star of Shawshank Redemption, at QB. I like Carolina at home though on the legs of DeAngelo Williams.
Pick: Carolina
Buffalo @ Green Bay: Green Bay -13. I like Green Bay to cover. Mark my words, Buffalo will be the worst team in the NFL this year and will draft a quarterback 1st overall.
Pick: Green Bay
Baltimore @ Cincinnati: Baltimore -2. After this week, Cincinnati will be the best 0-2 team. Their offense is revamped, but Baltimore's looked "Ravens Super Bowl 2000" Good. Baltimore still feels the sting of last year's two defeats at the hands of the Bengals.
Pick: Baltimore
Pittsburgh @ Tennessee: Tennessee -5. This seems like a Tennessee lock. Chris Johnson looks great, the defense held up well against the revamped Raiders. The Steelers have a third-string quarterback in. NOPE! Pittsburgh will beat this spread.
Pick: Pittsburgh
Kansas City @ Cleveland: Cleveland -1.5. I can't understand this one. Cleveland loses to Tampa Bay (bad team) and Kansas City beats San Diego (playoff team) and Cleveland is favored. If no one watched the late Monday Game, let me refresh your memory. Chiefs=fast.
Pick: Always pick speed, Chiefs.
Philadelphia @ Detroit: Philadelphia -4.5. Vick is back. See him run.
Pick: Philadelphia (by a wide margin).
Chicago @ Dallas: Dallas -8.5. This is a trap spread. Dallas is at home and will have something to prove.
Pick: Dallas. I'm going to regret this pick. But I have to think Dallas is better than they showed in Washington.
Miami @ Minnesota: Minnesota -5.5: Again, another team with something to prove at home. The Vikings offense, despite their chirping, might need to trade for Vincent Jackson. Miami is much improved and can run all over the dome.
Pick: Miami. Minnesota will be the second best 0-2 team. (Favre will waste this team this year).
St. Louis @ Oakland: Oakland -3.5. The Raiders had bright spots in that game against Tennessee. The Rams will have a winning record in the next 5 years. This game won't help.
Pick: Oakland.
Seattle @ Denver: Denver -3.5. Perhaps Vegas did not see the Broncos first game. They confuse me. Seattle surprised everyone beating a much-hyped 49er squad who is already in Singletary's doghouse. That said...
Pick: Denver at home.
Houston @ Washington: Houston -3. Houston will win this stunningly close game by exactly 3. Arian Foster will rush for only 120 this week, he's a beast, pay attention. *Fantasy pick of the game: Santana Moss.
Pick: Houston.
Jacksonville @ San Diego: San Diego -7.5. Chargers will win big.
Pick: San Diego.
New England @ New York Jets: New England -1.5. The Jets are gross. I'm tired of hearing about them. Revis may shut down Moss but that team can't stop the rest of the Patriots passing game.
Pick: New England
N.Y. Giants @ Indianapolis: Indianapolis -5.5. Manning Bowl II. See Result of Manning Bowl I.
Pick: Indianapolis.
Fantasy League: The Red Zone IX
Let's start out with Me (1759ers) vs. Nums (Robocops): That's right, this week I play my arch-nemesis and heterosexual life-partner on the metaphorical gridiron. Nums is sporting a particularly despicable lineup that is unfortunately capable of upending me after my first week murder of the Flying Hellfish. Nums has Ahmad Bradshaw against an Indy defense that gave up 231 yds to Arian Foster (my boy) and Brandon Jackson against a Buffalo defense that surrendered 147 yards on the ground to Miami. Also, our matchup also pits the Manning brothers against one another. I happen to have the better one for fantasy purposes and that will be the difference this week. I'll win 72-66.
Fightendrunks v. Sloptarts:
The Sloptarts benefited last week playing against the worst team in Fantasy Football, the Hells Satans. Also, no matter who is on Manager/Coach/Owner Nick Teada's team, he seems to find a way to win. This year I have a feeling some of that luck will run out. There is definitely some talent on the Sloptarts, but inconsistency could be the death of that team. As for the Drunks. This team is scary. They currently sit in last place though due to a TD-less week from Peterson and Turner and a concussion to Kolb. I guarantee both Peterson and Turner will score this week and Michael Vick will be UNBELIEVABLE against the Lions. Drunks roll. 75-52.
Blood Money v. Hells Satans:
Ew. This is a must win game for both teams as my colleague Teed has already pointed out with his tremendous picks. It's hard to believe there could be a must-win game this early. I picked Blood Money, only because I hate John. Personally, I think this will be a 10-10 tie. But.. in the interest of seriousness, Blood Money will win a squeaker. 6-3.
Danny's Donkies v. Rusty Nails:
The Donkies suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of their most bitter rivals last week, the Roughnecks. Still, their team is solid. Nails team, however, benefited from a very strong trade last week and will debut new RB Ray Rice this week against Cincinnati. Rice was stuffed by the staunch Jets D last week, but he will be the high point man in this matchup that isn't a quarterback. Rivers will earn that honor and Rusty Nails will take this one 75-64.
Flying Hellfish v. The Roughnecks:
The Hellfish got lambasted last week against my championship caliber squad, but not because they're a bad team. No one scored. This is a touchdown heavy league and I look for the Hellfish to score lots of touchdowns. Seattle and Matt Hasselbeck put up 31 points against the 49ers. By sheer talent gap, Drew Brees should put up 60. The Roughnecks have the advantage top to bottom. But the Brees-Colston connection is too much to overcome. Hellfish 61-60.
Kibbles and Vicks v. TBX:
I know the following statement is going to come back to haunt me, but here it goes: Chris Johnson will not score a rushing touchdown vs. Pittsburgh. Further, if Pittsburgh is able to control Time of Possession, his 100 yard rushing game streak will end this week. With that, goes the Xperience momentum. I'm picking Kibbles, only because I see a let down this week. Biggs' team is WAY better, but this week, they lose. 66-65.
NFL Week 2:
Arizona @ Atlanta: Atlanta -6.5. I've got to think Atlanta's offense will show up this weekend at home. A lot of other "experts" are counting Arizona out of this game because it's an East Coast game. This is not in New England and it's on turf. I like Arizona to beat this spread in my GUTSY pick of the week.
Pick: Arizona
Tampa Bay @ Carolina: OFF. I have to pick this game straight up. I like Tampa Bay and I think they have a decent future ahead of them with Morgan Freeman, star of Shawshank Redemption, at QB. I like Carolina at home though on the legs of DeAngelo Williams.
Pick: Carolina
Buffalo @ Green Bay: Green Bay -13. I like Green Bay to cover. Mark my words, Buffalo will be the worst team in the NFL this year and will draft a quarterback 1st overall.
Pick: Green Bay
Baltimore @ Cincinnati: Baltimore -2. After this week, Cincinnati will be the best 0-2 team. Their offense is revamped, but Baltimore's looked "Ravens Super Bowl 2000" Good. Baltimore still feels the sting of last year's two defeats at the hands of the Bengals.
Pick: Baltimore
Pittsburgh @ Tennessee: Tennessee -5. This seems like a Tennessee lock. Chris Johnson looks great, the defense held up well against the revamped Raiders. The Steelers have a third-string quarterback in. NOPE! Pittsburgh will beat this spread.
Pick: Pittsburgh
Kansas City @ Cleveland: Cleveland -1.5. I can't understand this one. Cleveland loses to Tampa Bay (bad team) and Kansas City beats San Diego (playoff team) and Cleveland is favored. If no one watched the late Monday Game, let me refresh your memory. Chiefs=fast.
Pick: Always pick speed, Chiefs.
Philadelphia @ Detroit: Philadelphia -4.5. Vick is back. See him run.
Pick: Philadelphia (by a wide margin).
Chicago @ Dallas: Dallas -8.5. This is a trap spread. Dallas is at home and will have something to prove.
Pick: Dallas. I'm going to regret this pick. But I have to think Dallas is better than they showed in Washington.
Miami @ Minnesota: Minnesota -5.5: Again, another team with something to prove at home. The Vikings offense, despite their chirping, might need to trade for Vincent Jackson. Miami is much improved and can run all over the dome.
Pick: Miami. Minnesota will be the second best 0-2 team. (Favre will waste this team this year).
St. Louis @ Oakland: Oakland -3.5. The Raiders had bright spots in that game against Tennessee. The Rams will have a winning record in the next 5 years. This game won't help.
Pick: Oakland.
Seattle @ Denver: Denver -3.5. Perhaps Vegas did not see the Broncos first game. They confuse me. Seattle surprised everyone beating a much-hyped 49er squad who is already in Singletary's doghouse. That said...
Pick: Denver at home.
Houston @ Washington: Houston -3. Houston will win this stunningly close game by exactly 3. Arian Foster will rush for only 120 this week, he's a beast, pay attention. *Fantasy pick of the game: Santana Moss.
Pick: Houston.
Jacksonville @ San Diego: San Diego -7.5. Chargers will win big.
Pick: San Diego.
New England @ New York Jets: New England -1.5. The Jets are gross. I'm tired of hearing about them. Revis may shut down Moss but that team can't stop the rest of the Patriots passing game.
Pick: New England
N.Y. Giants @ Indianapolis: Indianapolis -5.5. Manning Bowl II. See Result of Manning Bowl I.
Pick: Indianapolis.
Fantasy League: The Red Zone IX
Let's start out with Me (1759ers) vs. Nums (Robocops): That's right, this week I play my arch-nemesis and heterosexual life-partner on the metaphorical gridiron. Nums is sporting a particularly despicable lineup that is unfortunately capable of upending me after my first week murder of the Flying Hellfish. Nums has Ahmad Bradshaw against an Indy defense that gave up 231 yds to Arian Foster (my boy) and Brandon Jackson against a Buffalo defense that surrendered 147 yards on the ground to Miami. Also, our matchup also pits the Manning brothers against one another. I happen to have the better one for fantasy purposes and that will be the difference this week. I'll win 72-66.
Fightendrunks v. Sloptarts:
The Sloptarts benefited last week playing against the worst team in Fantasy Football, the Hells Satans. Also, no matter who is on Manager/Coach/Owner Nick Teada's team, he seems to find a way to win. This year I have a feeling some of that luck will run out. There is definitely some talent on the Sloptarts, but inconsistency could be the death of that team. As for the Drunks. This team is scary. They currently sit in last place though due to a TD-less week from Peterson and Turner and a concussion to Kolb. I guarantee both Peterson and Turner will score this week and Michael Vick will be UNBELIEVABLE against the Lions. Drunks roll. 75-52.
Blood Money v. Hells Satans:
Ew. This is a must win game for both teams as my colleague Teed has already pointed out with his tremendous picks. It's hard to believe there could be a must-win game this early. I picked Blood Money, only because I hate John. Personally, I think this will be a 10-10 tie. But.. in the interest of seriousness, Blood Money will win a squeaker. 6-3.
Danny's Donkies v. Rusty Nails:
The Donkies suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of their most bitter rivals last week, the Roughnecks. Still, their team is solid. Nails team, however, benefited from a very strong trade last week and will debut new RB Ray Rice this week against Cincinnati. Rice was stuffed by the staunch Jets D last week, but he will be the high point man in this matchup that isn't a quarterback. Rivers will earn that honor and Rusty Nails will take this one 75-64.
Flying Hellfish v. The Roughnecks:
The Hellfish got lambasted last week against my championship caliber squad, but not because they're a bad team. No one scored. This is a touchdown heavy league and I look for the Hellfish to score lots of touchdowns. Seattle and Matt Hasselbeck put up 31 points against the 49ers. By sheer talent gap, Drew Brees should put up 60. The Roughnecks have the advantage top to bottom. But the Brees-Colston connection is too much to overcome. Hellfish 61-60.
Kibbles and Vicks v. TBX:
I know the following statement is going to come back to haunt me, but here it goes: Chris Johnson will not score a rushing touchdown vs. Pittsburgh. Further, if Pittsburgh is able to control Time of Possession, his 100 yard rushing game streak will end this week. With that, goes the Xperience momentum. I'm picking Kibbles, only because I see a let down this week. Biggs' team is WAY better, but this week, they lose. 66-65.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Guts and Glory: A Tale of Redemption
Three years ago, my nemesis Nums and I embarked on a challenge. Who could choose NFL Football games more accurately? A man named Guts with more passion and American vigor in his pinky than is contained in the entire Bible Belt and possessing nothing more than pure football instinct and a love of the game OR a boy named Nums with a calculated system of proven indices created for the sole purpose of mathematically calculating the outcomes of games played by real people, human people. The answer was as shocking as the outcome of the super bowl (the giants beat the undefeated Patriots). Nums won, narrowly, sending me into a downward spiral of shame and physical self-degradation. But all that is behind me now. This year marks the return of Guts vs. Numbers and a return to glory. I will accept nothing less than pure domination over the rigid and anal ways of my counterpart.
The last three years
-Guts is now a 3rd year law student and still hates Nums.
-Nums is a civil engineer, living in Chicago and still wets the bed.
-Nums recently joined Guts' home fantasy football league and the two will be picking those games as well. (Not to be counted for the contest).
Contest Capsule: Each week, Nums and I will choose NFL games against the spread. I will use nothing but Guts and Nums will use stupid poopie-head numbers.
Today is the start of the 2010 Football season. In a rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game, the New Orleans, defending super-bowl champs, feel good story from a year ago, host teh Minnesota Favres. New Orleans is pumped, excited, talking repeat. The Vikings are historical losers as a franchise and despite his ONE super bowl ring, so is Brett Favre. He is also an idiot. BUT, I do not suspect Favre's season to take a parabolic shape, a bell-curve if you will. No, I expect he will throw for at least 8 TDs in this, the first game of the season and finish the season with 9 TDs and 20 INTs, hurting something around week 11 and dismantling his career starts streak.
Game: Minnesota @ New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans -4.5
Gutsy Pick: Minnesota beats the spread. I also think Minnesota will win this one. But don't worry saints fans, you won't lose many other games this season.
Now on to the Fantasy League:
1759ers (Guts' Team) v. Hellfish: In the most storied rivalry in Red Zone History, these teams meet for the 16th time. The 59ers own an 8-7 series advantage. Last year, the 59ers had Brees and cruised when he threw 6tds against the Lions. This year the Hellfish have Brees and Colston against the Vikings. Brees will throw 2 Tds and also 2 Picks. The Tds will be to Meachem and Bush. Mark it. 59ers roll. 71-60.
Robocops (Nums' Team) v. Old Rusty Nails: I hate Nums. Welcome to the league. Nails: 64-45.
Miami Sound Machine v. Roughnecks: In a rivalry that has been tested in the Fantasy Championship arena as well as the regular season, Miami owns a slight lead. They will widen that lead. 66-64.
Blood Money v. Kibbles and Vicks: Kibbles wins on the legs of Jahvid Best. Kibbles 58-55.
Fightendrunks v. X: Timmy Biggs smells like poop normally, but not this week. X on the Arm of Tom Brady. 71-63.
Sloptarts v. Hells Satans: I can't believe Hells Satans' draft "strategy". This bad a team would be expected in a 24 team league, not a 12 team league. Sloptarts 72-0.
NFL Predictions:
NFC East: 1. Cowboys. 2. Eagles. 3. Giants. 4. Redskins.
NFC North: 1. Packers. 2. Vikings. 3. Lions. 4. Bears.
NFC South: 1. Saints. 2. Falcons. 3. Panthers. 4. Bucs.
NFC West: 1. 49ers. 2. Seahawks. 3. Cardinals. 4. Rams
NFC Playoffs: #1. Saints. #2. Packers. #3. Cowboys. #4. 49ers. #5 Eagles. #6. Falcons.
Semis: Saints v. Falcons, Packers v. Eagles.
NFC Championship. Saints v. Packers.
Super Bowl Rep: Packers.
AFC East: 1. Patriots 2. Jets 3. Dolphins. 4. Bills.
AFC North: 1. Bengals. 2. Ravens. 3. Steelers. 4. Browns.
AFC South: 1. Colts. 2. Texans. 3. Titans. 4. Jags
AFC West: 1. Chargers. 2. Raiders. 3. Broncos. 4. Chiefs.
AFC Playoffs: #1. Colts. #2. Bengals. #3. Patriots. #4. Chargers. #5. Ravens. #6. Raiders.
Semis: Colts v. Ravens, Bengals v. Patriots
AFC Championship: Colts v. Patriots
Super Bowl Rep: Colts
Super Bowl: Packers v. Colts
NFL CHAMPION: Indianapolis Colts.
See you this weekend with the rest of the games.
The last three years
-Guts is now a 3rd year law student and still hates Nums.
-Nums is a civil engineer, living in Chicago and still wets the bed.
-Nums recently joined Guts' home fantasy football league and the two will be picking those games as well. (Not to be counted for the contest).
Contest Capsule: Each week, Nums and I will choose NFL games against the spread. I will use nothing but Guts and Nums will use stupid poopie-head numbers.
Today is the start of the 2010 Football season. In a rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game, the New Orleans, defending super-bowl champs, feel good story from a year ago, host teh Minnesota Favres. New Orleans is pumped, excited, talking repeat. The Vikings are historical losers as a franchise and despite his ONE super bowl ring, so is Brett Favre. He is also an idiot. BUT, I do not suspect Favre's season to take a parabolic shape, a bell-curve if you will. No, I expect he will throw for at least 8 TDs in this, the first game of the season and finish the season with 9 TDs and 20 INTs, hurting something around week 11 and dismantling his career starts streak.
Game: Minnesota @ New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans -4.5
Gutsy Pick: Minnesota beats the spread. I also think Minnesota will win this one. But don't worry saints fans, you won't lose many other games this season.
Now on to the Fantasy League:
1759ers (Guts' Team) v. Hellfish: In the most storied rivalry in Red Zone History, these teams meet for the 16th time. The 59ers own an 8-7 series advantage. Last year, the 59ers had Brees and cruised when he threw 6tds against the Lions. This year the Hellfish have Brees and Colston against the Vikings. Brees will throw 2 Tds and also 2 Picks. The Tds will be to Meachem and Bush. Mark it. 59ers roll. 71-60.
Robocops (Nums' Team) v. Old Rusty Nails: I hate Nums. Welcome to the league. Nails: 64-45.
Miami Sound Machine v. Roughnecks: In a rivalry that has been tested in the Fantasy Championship arena as well as the regular season, Miami owns a slight lead. They will widen that lead. 66-64.
Blood Money v. Kibbles and Vicks: Kibbles wins on the legs of Jahvid Best. Kibbles 58-55.
Fightendrunks v. X: Timmy Biggs smells like poop normally, but not this week. X on the Arm of Tom Brady. 71-63.
Sloptarts v. Hells Satans: I can't believe Hells Satans' draft "strategy". This bad a team would be expected in a 24 team league, not a 12 team league. Sloptarts 72-0.
NFL Predictions:
NFC East: 1. Cowboys. 2. Eagles. 3. Giants. 4. Redskins.
NFC North: 1. Packers. 2. Vikings. 3. Lions. 4. Bears.
NFC South: 1. Saints. 2. Falcons. 3. Panthers. 4. Bucs.
NFC West: 1. 49ers. 2. Seahawks. 3. Cardinals. 4. Rams
NFC Playoffs: #1. Saints. #2. Packers. #3. Cowboys. #4. 49ers. #5 Eagles. #6. Falcons.
Semis: Saints v. Falcons, Packers v. Eagles.
NFC Championship. Saints v. Packers.
Super Bowl Rep: Packers.
AFC East: 1. Patriots 2. Jets 3. Dolphins. 4. Bills.
AFC North: 1. Bengals. 2. Ravens. 3. Steelers. 4. Browns.
AFC South: 1. Colts. 2. Texans. 3. Titans. 4. Jags
AFC West: 1. Chargers. 2. Raiders. 3. Broncos. 4. Chiefs.
AFC Playoffs: #1. Colts. #2. Bengals. #3. Patriots. #4. Chargers. #5. Ravens. #6. Raiders.
Semis: Colts v. Ravens, Bengals v. Patriots
AFC Championship: Colts v. Patriots
Super Bowl Rep: Colts
Super Bowl: Packers v. Colts
NFL CHAMPION: Indianapolis Colts.
See you this weekend with the rest of the games.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Football Season is Over- On to March Madness and The General Election
The Giants won. After 33 Blog posts about how much the Giants suck. They won the Super Bowl. They beat the Pats, they ended the undefeated season. You will be greatly surprised if you see this Gutstar type another word about football before the college season starts.
That being said. We're back. And we're looking better than ever. We have a new blog up on young professionalism. Beingprofessional.blogspot.com. It's a subject that Nums and I are extremely qualified to write on. More qualified than pro football if you can believe that.
We're moving on to bigger fish. The Election is coming up in November, but before that Hope-fest we've got a little ditty called March madness. that is right, Nums and I will be handicapping the tournament so you can go into your office pool with whatever tool you feel better with (Guts or Numbers) and win. I believe due to the unpredictability of the tournament that I have an embarrassing advantage over Nums. However, as always, I expect him to show up early March with something ridiculously clever.
Til next time. Be Safe.
That being said. We're back. And we're looking better than ever. We have a new blog up on young professionalism. Beingprofessional.blogspot.com. It's a subject that Nums and I are extremely qualified to write on. More qualified than pro football if you can believe that.
We're moving on to bigger fish. The Election is coming up in November, but before that Hope-fest we've got a little ditty called March madness. that is right, Nums and I will be handicapping the tournament so you can go into your office pool with whatever tool you feel better with (Guts or Numbers) and win. I believe due to the unpredictability of the tournament that I have an embarrassing advantage over Nums. However, as always, I expect him to show up early March with something ridiculously clever.
Til next time. Be Safe.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Explanations are in order
Well, we haven't posted. What began as a gentleman's challenge has met great obstacles. What sorts of obstacles, you ask?
Here's a list of just 5.
Also, the blog will be changing its course. I'm sure Jimmy "Nums" will be updating you on that in the near future.
1. Christmas- for those of you who out there who don't celebrate this holiday known mostly for night prowling fat men and ham-presents, it's the one day (which takes up a whole month) where "Christians" celebrate the birth of "Christ" our lord "and" savior. It tends to have alot of ceremonies and rituals that can only be described as mandatory.
2. General Malaise- not a condiment. Rather it's a congenital disease found mostly in students and recent graduates. Symptoms include but are not limited to; Law and order marathons, watching slot machines, lethargy, uncontrollable bodily upheaval (coup de corpus) , paranoia.
3. Trying to enjoy football- Ever since the friendly challenge began between myself and Nums I have found myself too emotionally invested in the games to actually enjoy them. I made a conscious effort (not to betray you) but to remember what I love so much about the sport.
4. Super Christmas Eve Drinking Day- It's a tradition in the "Guts" household to get really plastered on Christmas Eve and wake up extremely hung over and fight while trying to be Merry. Fun times were had by all.
5. Jail- Yes, I bailed "Nums" out of prison. If I hadn't gotten there in time he would have inevitably become Mrs. Inmate #324612. Dressed in blue jeans, a backwards red cap, and a tacky Christmas sweater, Nums was forced to spend the night in the hoosegow. That's what friends are for.
That's good enough for now. I think it's important to still pick, even if our attitudes have changed. And to you, friends, be good to each other.
New England at New York (NFC)
Pick: Destiny: While I believe the Giants defense is a unit of merit and could potentially SLOW the Patriots, the Giants offense led by Eli "First Half" Manning, can not, I repeat CAN NOT win this game. And they WILL NOT. Witness the first undefeated regular season since 1972, and perhaps the best team in history (cheaters or not).
We'll see you in the playoffs.
Spread: New England -13: Take it. I have no reason to pick against them.
Here's a list of just 5.
Also, the blog will be changing its course. I'm sure Jimmy "Nums" will be updating you on that in the near future.
1. Christmas- for those of you who out there who don't celebrate this holiday known mostly for night prowling fat men and ham-presents, it's the one day (which takes up a whole month) where "Christians" celebrate the birth of "Christ" our lord "and" savior. It tends to have alot of ceremonies and rituals that can only be described as mandatory.
2. General Malaise- not a condiment. Rather it's a congenital disease found mostly in students and recent graduates. Symptoms include but are not limited to; Law and order marathons, watching slot machines, lethargy, uncontrollable bodily upheaval (coup de corpus) , paranoia.
3. Trying to enjoy football- Ever since the friendly challenge began between myself and Nums I have found myself too emotionally invested in the games to actually enjoy them. I made a conscious effort (not to betray you) but to remember what I love so much about the sport.
4. Super Christmas Eve Drinking Day- It's a tradition in the "Guts" household to get really plastered on Christmas Eve and wake up extremely hung over and fight while trying to be Merry. Fun times were had by all.
5. Jail- Yes, I bailed "Nums" out of prison. If I hadn't gotten there in time he would have inevitably become Mrs. Inmate #324612. Dressed in blue jeans, a backwards red cap, and a tacky Christmas sweater, Nums was forced to spend the night in the hoosegow. That's what friends are for.
That's good enough for now. I think it's important to still pick, even if our attitudes have changed. And to you, friends, be good to each other.
New England at New York (NFC)
Pick: Destiny: While I believe the Giants defense is a unit of merit and could potentially SLOW the Patriots, the Giants offense led by Eli "First Half" Manning, can not, I repeat CAN NOT win this game. And they WILL NOT. Witness the first undefeated regular season since 1972, and perhaps the best team in history (cheaters or not).
We'll see you in the playoffs.
Spread: New England -13: Take it. I have no reason to pick against them.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Good News/Bad News
Bad news first: we didn't post this weekend. You already know that. Zach summed it up pretty good. At least I learned yet another weakness of the System: free drinks at a graduate student 'social mixer'. Oh, and young professionals drive Audis. Who knew?
Good news: I finished my stats project an hour late. I guess that's bad news, but really, it's good news, because I got to legitimately analyze the competitive balance in the nfl for a grade... hopefully a good one... probably a bad one. If you're bored, I can email it to you.
Good news: I finished my stats project an hour late. I guess that's bad news, but really, it's good news, because I got to legitimately analyze the competitive balance in the nfl for a grade... hopefully a good one... probably a bad one. If you're bored, I can email it to you.
Bye week
Week 15 turned into a bye week for both Guts and Nums.
I owe you an apology.
I apologize to all of my fans and to all zero of his fans. If you must know what happened, we took the week off citing general malaise. Our weekend consisted of being thrust into the realm of young professionalism. Nums spent his time getting deep into the heart of Green Bay, Wisconsin where he did invaluable playoff and climate research. I spent my saturday in Denmark exploring old caverns. It was a vacation that we both needed and it happened without warning for our fans, ourselves, and everyone caught in the wake.
As for monday night's game since I'm a hefty 0-2 this week, I'm going with the Vikings over the Bears on Monday night, covering the spread.
I owe you an apology.
I apologize to all of my fans and to all zero of his fans. If you must know what happened, we took the week off citing general malaise. Our weekend consisted of being thrust into the realm of young professionalism. Nums spent his time getting deep into the heart of Green Bay, Wisconsin where he did invaluable playoff and climate research. I spent my saturday in Denmark exploring old caverns. It was a vacation that we both needed and it happened without warning for our fans, ourselves, and everyone caught in the wake.
As for monday night's game since I'm a hefty 0-2 this week, I'm going with the Vikings over the Bears on Monday night, covering the spread.
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Quick Pick
Time to make the saturday game pick. Unfortunately, I'm not near the System right now. But I can tell you that Cinci is gooder than SF, according to the numbers. Therefore, in lieu of the actual system, I can confidently say that Cinci will both beat the niners and cover whatever spread the boys in Vegas can come up with.
I'll get to the sunday games later
I'll get to the sunday games later
Friday, December 14, 2007
Saturday Game
Okay so I'm not even going to address thursday's game between Denver and Houston. Wow. The blurb on cbs said at the top and I read no further "Sage Rosenfels and Ron Dayne put away Denver 31-13" Okay no thank you.
Saturday's Game:
Cincinnati @ San Francisco
Pick: Cincy: As Nums will undoubtedly agree, this is the worst game of the week. Maybe not the matchup of the two worst teams, that distinction belongs to Miami and Baltimore, but the worst because it sits alone and if you love football, you have to watch it. I will not. I'll just pick it.
Also, the 49ers just signed CHRIS WEINKE to be SHAUN HILL'S BACKUP. Jesus.
Spread: Cincy -6: They'll cover
Saturday's Game:
Cincinnati @ San Francisco
Pick: Cincy: As Nums will undoubtedly agree, this is the worst game of the week. Maybe not the matchup of the two worst teams, that distinction belongs to Miami and Baltimore, but the worst because it sits alone and if you love football, you have to watch it. I will not. I'll just pick it.
Also, the 49ers just signed CHRIS WEINKE to be SHAUN HILL'S BACKUP. Jesus.
Spread: Cincy -6: They'll cover
Thursday, December 13, 2007
The Week After Tomorrow
Hello one and all.
In last week's unfinished post (some call it laziness, I call it avant garde), I made a few statements that I would like to revisit:
1. This is the make or break week for the System.
In my view, it was. It was week 14, and if the stats aren't firmly entrenched by this time, they never will be. By Week 14 a few teams are comfortable in their playoff chances, but most are jockeying for position. And the teams that don't have a chance haven't seen the brown-colored light at the end of the turd tunnel, so they haven't given up yet. As it turned out, this was a Week to Remember for the System (starring Mandy Moore).
2. Picking the winners will be easy
And how. For those keeping score, the System went 15-1 picking winners. Feel that chill up your spine? Yeah, that's the God of Numbers telling you "I told you so... and now I'm tickling your back." The only loss was my baby Bucs who were without a Garcia and who went up against a Texans team that is about 20 times better with Andre Johnson (avg. 15 yds/catch and 5 catchs/TD). Unfortunately, Andre hasn't played enough games to significantly influence the System (until this week). I guess the loss was just Karma getting back at me for all the Sage Rosenfels jokes I cracked (or as I like to call him: Thyme Guildenstern).
Anyway, I was very pleased with the performance, but as of now, I don't expect the System to perform that well on a consistent basis.
3. Picking against the spread won't be easy
And how. In the worst week so far picking the spread, I went 8-8. Notice how I said "I" went 8-8 instead of "the System"? It due to the biggest flaw I have uncovered so far in this latest version of the System: Me. I let my own beliefs such as "11 point victories aren't as common or predictable as you might think" cloud my judgment and bias the choices. I have yet to figure out how I can take the System's point differential and transform that into a quantifiable way to predict the actual point differential, but I will. It might have to wait for the offseason though, or at least Christmas break.
That said, I'll get to my thoughts on tonight's game at Houston. Notice the Andre Johnson stats I put earlier? Yeah, they serve nicely to justify my pick. As far as the System is concerned, it's nearly a gimme, with Denver having the slight lead. The bookies in Vegas also had the same idea. When I checked the spread, it already differed from teh one Zach used, but whatever. However, with homefield advantage and the impact of Andre Johnson, I will pick Houston to beat the spread. Mathmatically, the games can't get much closer than this. Now, if only that damn God of Numbers would stop trying to tickle my bum.
In last week's unfinished post (some call it laziness, I call it avant garde), I made a few statements that I would like to revisit:
1. This is the make or break week for the System.
In my view, it was. It was week 14, and if the stats aren't firmly entrenched by this time, they never will be. By Week 14 a few teams are comfortable in their playoff chances, but most are jockeying for position. And the teams that don't have a chance haven't seen the brown-colored light at the end of the turd tunnel, so they haven't given up yet. As it turned out, this was a Week to Remember for the System (starring Mandy Moore).
2. Picking the winners will be easy
And how. For those keeping score, the System went 15-1 picking winners. Feel that chill up your spine? Yeah, that's the God of Numbers telling you "I told you so... and now I'm tickling your back." The only loss was my baby Bucs who were without a Garcia and who went up against a Texans team that is about 20 times better with Andre Johnson (avg. 15 yds/catch and 5 catchs/TD). Unfortunately, Andre hasn't played enough games to significantly influence the System (until this week). I guess the loss was just Karma getting back at me for all the Sage Rosenfels jokes I cracked (or as I like to call him: Thyme Guildenstern).
Anyway, I was very pleased with the performance, but as of now, I don't expect the System to perform that well on a consistent basis.
3. Picking against the spread won't be easy
And how. In the worst week so far picking the spread, I went 8-8. Notice how I said "I" went 8-8 instead of "the System"? It due to the biggest flaw I have uncovered so far in this latest version of the System: Me. I let my own beliefs such as "11 point victories aren't as common or predictable as you might think" cloud my judgment and bias the choices. I have yet to figure out how I can take the System's point differential and transform that into a quantifiable way to predict the actual point differential, but I will. It might have to wait for the offseason though, or at least Christmas break.
That said, I'll get to my thoughts on tonight's game at Houston. Notice the Andre Johnson stats I put earlier? Yeah, they serve nicely to justify my pick. As far as the System is concerned, it's nearly a gimme, with Denver having the slight lead. The bookies in Vegas also had the same idea. When I checked the spread, it already differed from teh one Zach used, but whatever. However, with homefield advantage and the impact of Andre Johnson, I will pick Houston to beat the spread. Mathmatically, the games can't get much closer than this. Now, if only that damn God of Numbers would stop trying to tickle my bum.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Week 15
It is a sad time for guts fans everywhere as Nums has opened up an 8 game lead in the regular season with just 3 weeks before the playoffs. His system is proving to work very well straight up, not too great against the spread though, but who's counting? Week 15 is when I get hot. Also sorry that you had to hear my picks through him last week, there was no way to access a computer at the bar. Also, I apologize for picking Miami, I had a lot of eggnog and when I saw that on sunday I almost threw it up.
Thursday's pick:
Denver @ Houston
Pick: Denver: Selvin Young emerged last week as possibly the next in a long line of successful denver running backs under Mike Shanahan. Both teams are 6-7 and this is basically a playoff before the playoffs. Denver has the most to lose as many picked them to be playoff contenders before the season. Houston is having a year that no matter the outcome will look good and set the tone for '08. They've played alot of tough games and this will be another one.
Spread: Hou -3: Denver beats it with three of their own. 23-20
I'd give you Saturday's game too, but I don't have the line as of yet. I'll be back with picks on Friday.
Thursday's pick:
Denver @ Houston
Pick: Denver: Selvin Young emerged last week as possibly the next in a long line of successful denver running backs under Mike Shanahan. Both teams are 6-7 and this is basically a playoff before the playoffs. Denver has the most to lose as many picked them to be playoff contenders before the season. Houston is having a year that no matter the outcome will look good and set the tone for '08. They've played alot of tough games and this will be another one.
Spread: Hou -3: Denver beats it with three of their own. 23-20
I'd give you Saturday's game too, but I don't have the line as of yet. I'll be back with picks on Friday.
Saturday, December 8, 2007
SOYLENT GREEN IS MADE OF NUMBERS!!! (also, Zach's picks)
Hello loyal reader(s),
Week 14, the week of hope. I truly believe this is the make or break game for the System. Picking the winners will be easy; picking the spread won't be. there are several games with a 10.5 point spread and a most others are 6.5 or above. That might not sound too shocking, but in the NFL, 11 point victories aren't as common or predictable as you might think (not to mention 10.5 point victories. In fact, no team has ever won by 10.5 points in the history of the game). Giggity.
MIA vs. BUF
STL vs. CIN
Good news: The Abomination of the Week this week isn't that bad. Bad News: it's still an abomination. I saw this game posted and I thought, 'could be worse.' But then I got that sinking feeling in my gut. That horrible feeling that makes me swear and drink heavily and go into my office at 3 in the morning and look up porn. I swear, the bad games make me do these things. CIN win and STL coverstl
DAL vs. DET
If faith in the lord gave your arm power, Kitna would be Kyle Boller. But he's not and his team sucks and so does Kyle Boller's team. In one of the more prescient points I have heard in sports reporting for some time, a person on Sportsline suggested that Wade Phillips was just a figure head to divert attention to Jason Garrett. And if there's one thing Wade Phillips diverts, it's attention. If there's two things, they're attention and hoagies. Hopefully he doesn't divert from the Lions' mid-game bible study.
OAK vs. GB
When I was in eighth grade, I lost the geography bee on this question: 'What is the largest city in Wisconsin?' I answered Green Bay because they had a football team and Milwakee didn't. I got the question wrong, not because Green Bay didn't have a team, but because Milwakee does actually have more people. But they don't have more Bret Favres. So I ask you, people, what do we really want our children to learn in school?
TB vs. HOU
What the fizzle? Tampa Bay is getting no respect. They lead the division when they have garcia; they win a big game with one of the McCowns. My rankings have them number 6 in the league, yet they're only given 3.5 points? Most of the experts on CBS are picking HOU. On principle, I can't name them the GOWER POWER POINTS PICK for the 2nd straight week, but I can name them the 'really good team that'll catch people by surprise in the playoffs because people are idiots and numbers are wise POINTS PICK' for this week.
CAR vs. JAC
I've said it before, I'll say it again: it still feels like these teams just joined the league and are playing with zero expectations. Every week is a joy to the people of Jacksonville and one of the carolinas (or both, or just northern georgia). In a perfect world, these teams would play every week and both would win every week. I'd pick a winner, but I stay away from anything born in the 90's (sorry reggie).
PIT vs. NE
The game of the week, I guess. NE's been making it fun for the past few weeks and Pitt lost to arizona. I really have no clue where this game will go. Whatever happens, I believe it will definitely be more revealing for Pittsburgh. New england already proved themselves this year, even if they do lose.
NYG vs. PHI
Zach left this weekend to visit friends. It's these kinds of weekends where you prove your muster. We, the people left behind, have to prove that we can still win the big game after our running leaves the game in the first quarter. I shared this with one of his roommates and he suggested that Zach was more like a quarterback. I conceded this, but only on the condition that that quarterback was Eli Manning. Sorry Zach, you're a big bitch with a good pedigree.
I'm sorry, but I'm tired and I'm looking at the rest of the games and I don't want to pick the GOWER POWER POINTS PICK right now. I'll pick this up later. In the mean time, here are Zach's picks phoned in just minutes ago:
Winner/vs. spread
Jacksonville, Jack
Miami, miami
STL, STL
Dal, dal
GB, GB
TB, TB
NE, NE
PHI, PHI
TEN, TEN
MIN, MIN
SEA, SEA
DEN, KC
CLE, CLE
IND, IND
NO, NO
Heart index: Heart sucks
Guts index: Guts suck
America index: Zach sucks
Week 14, the week of hope. I truly believe this is the make or break game for the System. Picking the winners will be easy; picking the spread won't be. there are several games with a 10.5 point spread and a most others are 6.5 or above. That might not sound too shocking, but in the NFL, 11 point victories aren't as common or predictable as you might think (not to mention 10.5 point victories. In fact, no team has ever won by 10.5 points in the history of the game). Giggity.
MIA vs. BUF
STL vs. CIN
Good news: The Abomination of the Week this week isn't that bad. Bad News: it's still an abomination. I saw this game posted and I thought, 'could be worse.' But then I got that sinking feeling in my gut. That horrible feeling that makes me swear and drink heavily and go into my office at 3 in the morning and look up porn. I swear, the bad games make me do these things. CIN win and STL coverstl
DAL vs. DET
If faith in the lord gave your arm power, Kitna would be Kyle Boller. But he's not and his team sucks and so does Kyle Boller's team. In one of the more prescient points I have heard in sports reporting for some time, a person on Sportsline suggested that Wade Phillips was just a figure head to divert attention to Jason Garrett. And if there's one thing Wade Phillips diverts, it's attention. If there's two things, they're attention and hoagies. Hopefully he doesn't divert from the Lions' mid-game bible study.
OAK vs. GB
When I was in eighth grade, I lost the geography bee on this question: 'What is the largest city in Wisconsin?' I answered Green Bay because they had a football team and Milwakee didn't. I got the question wrong, not because Green Bay didn't have a team, but because Milwakee does actually have more people. But they don't have more Bret Favres. So I ask you, people, what do we really want our children to learn in school?
TB vs. HOU
What the fizzle? Tampa Bay is getting no respect. They lead the division when they have garcia; they win a big game with one of the McCowns. My rankings have them number 6 in the league, yet they're only given 3.5 points? Most of the experts on CBS are picking HOU. On principle, I can't name them the GOWER POWER POINTS PICK for the 2nd straight week, but I can name them the 'really good team that'll catch people by surprise in the playoffs because people are idiots and numbers are wise POINTS PICK' for this week.
CAR vs. JAC
I've said it before, I'll say it again: it still feels like these teams just joined the league and are playing with zero expectations. Every week is a joy to the people of Jacksonville and one of the carolinas (or both, or just northern georgia). In a perfect world, these teams would play every week and both would win every week. I'd pick a winner, but I stay away from anything born in the 90's (sorry reggie).
PIT vs. NE
The game of the week, I guess. NE's been making it fun for the past few weeks and Pitt lost to arizona. I really have no clue where this game will go. Whatever happens, I believe it will definitely be more revealing for Pittsburgh. New england already proved themselves this year, even if they do lose.
NYG vs. PHI
Zach left this weekend to visit friends. It's these kinds of weekends where you prove your muster. We, the people left behind, have to prove that we can still win the big game after our running leaves the game in the first quarter. I shared this with one of his roommates and he suggested that Zach was more like a quarterback. I conceded this, but only on the condition that that quarterback was Eli Manning. Sorry Zach, you're a big bitch with a good pedigree.
I'm sorry, but I'm tired and I'm looking at the rest of the games and I don't want to pick the GOWER POWER POINTS PICK right now. I'll pick this up later. In the mean time, here are Zach's picks phoned in just minutes ago:
Winner/vs. spread
Jacksonville, Jack
Miami, miami
STL, STL
Dal, dal
GB, GB
TB, TB
NE, NE
PHI, PHI
TEN, TEN
MIN, MIN
SEA, SEA
DEN, KC
CLE, CLE
IND, IND
NO, NO
Heart index: Heart sucks
Guts index: Guts suck
America index: Zach sucks
Week 14 Pickaroonies
I've been busy with the end of the semester, so I haven't had much time to devote to this. Like last week, i'll have game previews up later tonight. As for 'Guts', he may be out of commission this week due to a emergency in D.C. Everything's alright, but he had to go down there and drink lots of beer with his college friends. I almost went with him, but he couldn't promise that I would get a handjob from a chick under a blanket in a room full of people. I guess you could call it a dream of mine...
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Finally, a Thursday game America doesn't care about. If the NFL would have scheduled all the games like this, they'd have a successful network. I'd write more on the subject, but I'm on the tail end of an all-nighter that mainly involved me eating a lot of fritos and switching between google image searches for Adrianna Lima in a football jersey and Joe Montana in a bikini. I guess it's a good thing that I'm rarely alone in my office.
Anyway, this game is tough to call. These teams have both had a tough past 5 games, with Washington the worse for the wear, emotionally and physically. However, they can still play respectable defense and move the ball better than the Grossman Express (Next stop: boosville), so the System picks them to win. But if it's a close game, I have to go with Chicago vs. the spread. Washington is 3rd worst team in the league in TO ratio and 5th worse in fg pct. That probably means something.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Week 14 begins Thursday
Here I am, rock you like a hurricane. That's right, like a Scorpion this Thursday game is going to sting. Either Washington will lose their second home game in 11 days post Sean Taylor's death, or Chicago will continue to disappoint a season after they disappointed in the Super Bowl (Not you Devin Hester) Speaking of disappointments, after a 10-6 week. I trail Nums by 4 games after tough losses by New Orleans and Houston set me back. This week, I hope to make up a little ground.
Chicago at Washington
Pick: Chicago: As much as it pains me, I'm going with the Bears on this one due to a very guts-like trend. The Bears, after week 4 have gone win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win-loss... that means, even though I hate numbers, that it has to continue. The Redskins suffered a really tough loss last week against Buffalo. The game was emotional and it came down to a last second field goal. I think this game will do the same, unfortunately it may be a miss on the leg of my boy Sean Suisham. But who knows? Both of these teams are in a bad place, but at least chicago is winning as much as they're losing while Washington has dropped four straight.
Guts index: Temperature is dropping, take off those shirts and paint your chests, Guts.
Heart Index: Crazy on you
America index: Our nation's capital got some snow, no matter if it snows more or not, everyone on the field will be glad they aren't in Pittsburgh for a night game.
Spread: Washington -3: I wish I could pick the Skins to lose and to cover, but I cannot.
See ya sometime this week, I'll be sending in my article from DC actually if I can find time in between Christmas sweater shopping and setting the clocks back constantly to simulate the perfect drinking hour all day.
Chicago at Washington
Pick: Chicago: As much as it pains me, I'm going with the Bears on this one due to a very guts-like trend. The Bears, after week 4 have gone win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win-loss... that means, even though I hate numbers, that it has to continue. The Redskins suffered a really tough loss last week against Buffalo. The game was emotional and it came down to a last second field goal. I think this game will do the same, unfortunately it may be a miss on the leg of my boy Sean Suisham. But who knows? Both of these teams are in a bad place, but at least chicago is winning as much as they're losing while Washington has dropped four straight.
Guts index: Temperature is dropping, take off those shirts and paint your chests, Guts.
Heart Index: Crazy on you
America index: Our nation's capital got some snow, no matter if it snows more or not, everyone on the field will be glad they aren't in Pittsburgh for a night game.
Spread: Washington -3: I wish I could pick the Skins to lose and to cover, but I cannot.
See ya sometime this week, I'll be sending in my article from DC actually if I can find time in between Christmas sweater shopping and setting the clocks back constantly to simulate the perfect drinking hour all day.
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Maybe the last post ever
When I was younger, I read the Book of Revelation and thought it could never happen. But, as I write this, the four horsemen are suiting up. West Virginia lost (Death). Ohio State didn't play (Famine). Missouri is losing (War). I forget what the other one is, but I'm pretty sure he's getting his horse out of the stable. Nonetheless, I think there's still sometime before the Rapture, so I might as well preview tomorrow's game before I am taken peacefully to my Heavenly home.
ATL at STL
I wish I could say this game was the abomination of the week, but, sadly, I can't (see below). The Greatest Show on Turf meets the Greatest Show In A Pit In Vick's Back Yard. I'm reminded of Aesop's Fable where the eagle (or falcon) picks up the ram and yada, yada, yada drops it. go with the falcons
BUF at WAS
I'll leave this one alone. That Sean Taylor story gets more and more outrageous every day. Never bring a machete to a gun fight.
DET at MIN
A few weeks ago, Detroit was the Cinderella of the System. But if there's one thing God (however you define Him) hates, it's false prophets, and Kitna is not looking too good in his prediction for 10 wins right about now. Neither is that receiver who thought they would get 12 or 13, especially since it's mathmatically impossible. I feel bad for the Ford family, nothing it going well for them now. Not like that Toyota family.
HOU at TEN
Tennessee, another former System Cinderella, has hit hard times as of late, but they still have a chance to grab the second wild card (or even take Jacksonville's for that matter), so expect them to try extra extra hard in this one.
JAC at IND
This year has been god-awful for Peyton Manning commercials. I mean, last year, I loved the 'laser-rocket' arm gag and 'Cut-That-Meat' killed me. But that 'pep talk' shit? and what the hell is Marvin Harrison doing in that water? He's surrounded by dolphins? First of all, that's not bad, that's delightful. If I was Peyton i'd drop the ball and go play with Harrison in the dolphin tank.
NYJ at MIA
Here it is, the Abomination of the Week. When I first thought of this game, I had to leave the room and get some air. A homeless man asked me if I was ok. I told him the Jets were playing the Dolphins, and he said "shit, what them dawfins doin in the air? shit." Sir, I agree. Dolphins-stick to the running game. I feel good things are coming from that Ricky Williams. I forgot to say this last week, but good luck Ricky, it's good to have you back. What's that? Oh... um... the Jets will probably win.
SD at KC
In the battle of cities with short abbreviations, I go with San Diego. A wise man once said something about 'San Diego' being spanish for a whale's something. I laughed until I heard that quote 50 times. Ever since then, I hated Napoleon Dynamite.
SEA at PHI
Talk about Super Bowl Hangovers. These teams are still got so drunk off their super bowl loses that they're still in Denny's waiting for their side of bacon. Instead of Gatorade, they should get pepto bismol.
SF at CAR
At SF, george seifert won two super bowls. At CAR, his third and final season was, according to Wikipedia (yeah, I research these), was a 'disaster.' Look for the panthers to win this for george...
CLE at ARI
CLE, you are the new Cinderella of the System, and that is well deserved. I don't know what it is about you guys, but it just feels good to root for you. The NFL promised you a team after the Original Browns got yanked to Baltimore, and it looks like you finally got it.
DEN at OAK
When distance runners are training for a competition, they often go to high altitudes to maximize their oxygen intake. Taking that into consideration, expect Denver to run laps around Oakland. They might play football too, but mainly laps. Lots and lots of laps.
NYG at CHI
In theory, these teams should be good. In theory. The ghost of Pat Summerall has been haunting the last half of every season for the giants for some time now. Grossman has been especially grossman esque this year. Don't be surprised if both quarterbacks get suspicious circular brown stains on the butts of their pants as the game goes on. Look closely.
TB at NO
I'm growing tired of picking TB as the Gower Power Points Pick ever other week, but it's a safe damn bet. They are constantly being put down. I don't care if Garcia is questionable, because there is one thing that isn't questionable: Jeff Garcia's unhuman drive to get his team to the playoffs. Not necessarily the superbowl, but the Playoffs, you bet.
CIN at PIT
Pittsburgh has had some unbelieveable loses this year, and I attribute that to Omar Epps being their coach. I've noticed that their loses often coincide with an episode of House where omar gets especially berated. But this week, he was pretty chill, so expect a normal Steelers effort here.
NE at BAL
Researching this game, I read Brian Billick's wikipedia page because I had once heard that he was an 'offensive genius' and I thought to myself, 'Really?' Maybe my senses are wrong. I mean, he does have the most wins in Team History (only other coach: Ted Marchibroda. Yeah,
that Ted Marchibroda). The most surprising thing I learned completely blew my mind, and I hope to God this is true. Brian Billick, after a disappointing pro career, turned to game shows. Game shows, as in more than one show. First, he was on Match Game, where after a 0-5 loss, a panelist quipped 'Failed at football, failed at match game, where will you go now.' He also appeared on an episode of Jeopardy and The Gong Show performing, I shit you not, a 'spider monkey' routine. Now that I think about it, this might be the fourth Horseman of the apocalypse...
ATL at STL
I wish I could say this game was the abomination of the week, but, sadly, I can't (see below). The Greatest Show on Turf meets the Greatest Show In A Pit In Vick's Back Yard. I'm reminded of Aesop's Fable where the eagle (or falcon) picks up the ram and yada, yada, yada drops it. go with the falcons
BUF at WAS
I'll leave this one alone. That Sean Taylor story gets more and more outrageous every day. Never bring a machete to a gun fight.
DET at MIN
A few weeks ago, Detroit was the Cinderella of the System. But if there's one thing God (however you define Him) hates, it's false prophets, and Kitna is not looking too good in his prediction for 10 wins right about now. Neither is that receiver who thought they would get 12 or 13, especially since it's mathmatically impossible. I feel bad for the Ford family, nothing it going well for them now. Not like that Toyota family.
HOU at TEN
Tennessee, another former System Cinderella, has hit hard times as of late, but they still have a chance to grab the second wild card (or even take Jacksonville's for that matter), so expect them to try extra extra hard in this one.
JAC at IND
This year has been god-awful for Peyton Manning commercials. I mean, last year, I loved the 'laser-rocket' arm gag and 'Cut-That-Meat' killed me. But that 'pep talk' shit? and what the hell is Marvin Harrison doing in that water? He's surrounded by dolphins? First of all, that's not bad, that's delightful. If I was Peyton i'd drop the ball and go play with Harrison in the dolphin tank.
NYJ at MIA
Here it is, the Abomination of the Week. When I first thought of this game, I had to leave the room and get some air. A homeless man asked me if I was ok. I told him the Jets were playing the Dolphins, and he said "shit, what them dawfins doin in the air? shit." Sir, I agree. Dolphins-stick to the running game. I feel good things are coming from that Ricky Williams. I forgot to say this last week, but good luck Ricky, it's good to have you back. What's that? Oh... um... the Jets will probably win.
SD at KC
In the battle of cities with short abbreviations, I go with San Diego. A wise man once said something about 'San Diego' being spanish for a whale's something. I laughed until I heard that quote 50 times. Ever since then, I hated Napoleon Dynamite.
SEA at PHI
Talk about Super Bowl Hangovers. These teams are still got so drunk off their super bowl loses that they're still in Denny's waiting for their side of bacon. Instead of Gatorade, they should get pepto bismol.
SF at CAR
At SF, george seifert won two super bowls. At CAR, his third and final season was, according to Wikipedia (yeah, I research these), was a 'disaster.' Look for the panthers to win this for george...
CLE at ARI
CLE, you are the new Cinderella of the System, and that is well deserved. I don't know what it is about you guys, but it just feels good to root for you. The NFL promised you a team after the Original Browns got yanked to Baltimore, and it looks like you finally got it.
DEN at OAK
When distance runners are training for a competition, they often go to high altitudes to maximize their oxygen intake. Taking that into consideration, expect Denver to run laps around Oakland. They might play football too, but mainly laps. Lots and lots of laps.
NYG at CHI
In theory, these teams should be good. In theory. The ghost of Pat Summerall has been haunting the last half of every season for the giants for some time now. Grossman has been especially grossman esque this year. Don't be surprised if both quarterbacks get suspicious circular brown stains on the butts of their pants as the game goes on. Look closely.
TB at NO
I'm growing tired of picking TB as the Gower Power Points Pick ever other week, but it's a safe damn bet. They are constantly being put down. I don't care if Garcia is questionable, because there is one thing that isn't questionable: Jeff Garcia's unhuman drive to get his team to the playoffs. Not necessarily the superbowl, but the Playoffs, you bet.
CIN at PIT
Pittsburgh has had some unbelieveable loses this year, and I attribute that to Omar Epps being their coach. I've noticed that their loses often coincide with an episode of House where omar gets especially berated. But this week, he was pretty chill, so expect a normal Steelers effort here.
NE at BAL
Researching this game, I read Brian Billick's wikipedia page because I had once heard that he was an 'offensive genius' and I thought to myself, 'Really?' Maybe my senses are wrong. I mean, he does have the most wins in Team History (only other coach: Ted Marchibroda. Yeah,
that Ted Marchibroda). The most surprising thing I learned completely blew my mind, and I hope to God this is true. Brian Billick, after a disappointing pro career, turned to game shows. Game shows, as in more than one show. First, he was on Match Game, where after a 0-5 loss, a panelist quipped 'Failed at football, failed at match game, where will you go now.' He also appeared on an episode of Jeopardy and The Gong Show performing, I shit you not, a 'spider monkey' routine. Now that I think about it, this might be the fourth Horseman of the apocalypse...
Week 13 (Guts Week)
Ah, and we're back. Good start to the week. Brett Favre's ironman streak could for the first time be in jeopardy, but reports say he should be back next week. Positive news for Pack fans though, the running game is working and Aaron Rodgers might actually have talent. As for my picks this week I'm going to pull one over on you and not show the indexes that went into these picks, because I took the LSATs and I'm drained so I'll just give you the picks and spreads hard and fast. The indexes if you didn't notice are integral parts of my system but are in most part just a means for me to make fun of my narrow-minded counterpart.
San Diego at Kansas City
Pick: San Diego: The Chargers had a rough go the first time against KC allowing 24 unanswered points in the second half. The Chargers have hopefully realized that the playoffs are theirs to get in a weak AFC West and the Chiefs are reeling after a loss to the Raiders. The home team here will put up a fight and I think this will be closer than the experts think.
Spread: SD -4.5: I like Kansas City to beat the spread. 21-18
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Pick: Indy: The first time these two teams played I went with the home team and Indy handled Jacksonville well. Jacksonville has a realistic chance to win the division if they continue to play well on both sides of the ball. However, Peyton Manning is at that point in the season where he sets in a groove. His bad games are behind him.
Spread: Indy -7: This will be a tough physical game, Jacksonville will keep it close until the 4th quarter. Indy covers.
San Francisco at Carolina
Pick: San Francisco: There was a long time where I said San Fran was the worst team in the league and that may be true, but they found something last week on offense. They are healthy and Carolina is not, both teams are out of playoff contention, but one team is in worse shape.
Spread: Carolina -2.5: San Fran takes this one.
Buffalo at Washington
Pick: Washington: This is an emotional game due to the loss of Sean Taylor. Washington is at home and they want this one. It will be hard for Buffalo to overcome that.
Spread: Washington -6.5: Big spread for such an even matchup, but the emotion factor takes it way behind a ballgame. Washington covers.
Houston at Tennessee
Pick: Houston: Either one of these teams is capable of winning any game because of the brand of football they play. Tennessee's offense though will not be able to keep up with Houston's.
Spread: Tennessee -4: Houston beats it.
Atlanta at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis: After starting the season 0-8 the Rams won 2 in a row and lost a heartbreaker against the first place Seahawks. They proved themselves well enough even when hit with the injury bug to beat a weak Atlanta team.
Spread: OFF: St. Louis
Seattle at Philadelphia
Pick: Seattle: Philly played a hell of a game against the powerful Pats, and maybe just maybe they can win against anyone. One game with a pumped up AJ Feeley is not enough to run with this team. Seattle has found a new facet/wrinkle in their offense: The Passing game. They'll win through the air.
Spread: Philly -3: I think Seattle will beat this and then some as long as they can do better than the Pats did against the Eagles' middle of the field passing attack.
Detroit at Minnesota:
Pick: Minnesota: Adrian Peterson is back and the Vikings did fine without him. They'll do better than fine against a Lions team that has been disappointing since their fast start.
Spread: Minnesota -3: Cover
NY Jets at Miami:
Pick: Jets: This is the game to pick Miami. I just don't feel it, not in this gut. I wanted to, but I can't. I think the Jets will run the ball well and offset a reenergized Miami offense.
Spread: Miami -1: Jets beat it.
Cleveland at Arizona:
Pick: Cleveland: The Browns are on fire, they'll be in warm weather. This game could be a high scoring contest. I expect it to be. Shootout. Cleveland is a playoff team people.
Spread: Cleveland PK: Cleveland
Denver at Oakland:
Pick: Denver: Denver came off what might have been their toughest loss of the season and good for them they play the Raiders. Oakland needs to start thinking about the future which is what they did at the draft but a holdout negated that. While they're trying to find themselves, Denver is looking to catch San Diego.
Spread: Denver -3.5: Cover.
NY Giants at Chicago:
Pick: NY Giants: I really don't like picking the Giants after Week 9, but my gut tells me I should. This is what they do. They'll win this one and people will talk about them again, only to be horribly disappointed in the end.
Spread: NY Giants -2.5: They'll cover, but it will be ugly.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans: Tampa is playing well. But this is a game the Saints need and they're at home and everything points to an upset. Even though New Orleans is favored, this could still be considered a good win over a team that controls its destiny.
Spread: New Orleans: Cover, in a surprising rout. 35-20
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh scored 3 points in their win against Miami in a drenched monday night game. New sod was flown in to Heinz field and the Steelers will use it to their advantage. This one will be high scoring. The leg of solid Jeff Reed will win it.
Spread: Pitt -7.5: Cincy will beat this one. Close game.
New England at Baltimore
Pick: New England: The Patriots had an unexpected test against the McNabb-less Eagles. This is not a test. Kyle Boller has always been a joke, expect him to keep that up.
Spread: New England -20: New England will cover, score 56 points and reassert its dominance after a "humiliating" win against the Eagles.
There you have them. Gut Picks for Gut people. Stay Beautiful.
San Diego at Kansas City
Pick: San Diego: The Chargers had a rough go the first time against KC allowing 24 unanswered points in the second half. The Chargers have hopefully realized that the playoffs are theirs to get in a weak AFC West and the Chiefs are reeling after a loss to the Raiders. The home team here will put up a fight and I think this will be closer than the experts think.
Spread: SD -4.5: I like Kansas City to beat the spread. 21-18
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Pick: Indy: The first time these two teams played I went with the home team and Indy handled Jacksonville well. Jacksonville has a realistic chance to win the division if they continue to play well on both sides of the ball. However, Peyton Manning is at that point in the season where he sets in a groove. His bad games are behind him.
Spread: Indy -7: This will be a tough physical game, Jacksonville will keep it close until the 4th quarter. Indy covers.
San Francisco at Carolina
Pick: San Francisco: There was a long time where I said San Fran was the worst team in the league and that may be true, but they found something last week on offense. They are healthy and Carolina is not, both teams are out of playoff contention, but one team is in worse shape.
Spread: Carolina -2.5: San Fran takes this one.
Buffalo at Washington
Pick: Washington: This is an emotional game due to the loss of Sean Taylor. Washington is at home and they want this one. It will be hard for Buffalo to overcome that.
Spread: Washington -6.5: Big spread for such an even matchup, but the emotion factor takes it way behind a ballgame. Washington covers.
Houston at Tennessee
Pick: Houston: Either one of these teams is capable of winning any game because of the brand of football they play. Tennessee's offense though will not be able to keep up with Houston's.
Spread: Tennessee -4: Houston beats it.
Atlanta at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis: After starting the season 0-8 the Rams won 2 in a row and lost a heartbreaker against the first place Seahawks. They proved themselves well enough even when hit with the injury bug to beat a weak Atlanta team.
Spread: OFF: St. Louis
Seattle at Philadelphia
Pick: Seattle: Philly played a hell of a game against the powerful Pats, and maybe just maybe they can win against anyone. One game with a pumped up AJ Feeley is not enough to run with this team. Seattle has found a new facet/wrinkle in their offense: The Passing game. They'll win through the air.
Spread: Philly -3: I think Seattle will beat this and then some as long as they can do better than the Pats did against the Eagles' middle of the field passing attack.
Detroit at Minnesota:
Pick: Minnesota: Adrian Peterson is back and the Vikings did fine without him. They'll do better than fine against a Lions team that has been disappointing since their fast start.
Spread: Minnesota -3: Cover
NY Jets at Miami:
Pick: Jets: This is the game to pick Miami. I just don't feel it, not in this gut. I wanted to, but I can't. I think the Jets will run the ball well and offset a reenergized Miami offense.
Spread: Miami -1: Jets beat it.
Cleveland at Arizona:
Pick: Cleveland: The Browns are on fire, they'll be in warm weather. This game could be a high scoring contest. I expect it to be. Shootout. Cleveland is a playoff team people.
Spread: Cleveland PK: Cleveland
Denver at Oakland:
Pick: Denver: Denver came off what might have been their toughest loss of the season and good for them they play the Raiders. Oakland needs to start thinking about the future which is what they did at the draft but a holdout negated that. While they're trying to find themselves, Denver is looking to catch San Diego.
Spread: Denver -3.5: Cover.
NY Giants at Chicago:
Pick: NY Giants: I really don't like picking the Giants after Week 9, but my gut tells me I should. This is what they do. They'll win this one and people will talk about them again, only to be horribly disappointed in the end.
Spread: NY Giants -2.5: They'll cover, but it will be ugly.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans: Tampa is playing well. But this is a game the Saints need and they're at home and everything points to an upset. Even though New Orleans is favored, this could still be considered a good win over a team that controls its destiny.
Spread: New Orleans: Cover, in a surprising rout. 35-20
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh scored 3 points in their win against Miami in a drenched monday night game. New sod was flown in to Heinz field and the Steelers will use it to their advantage. This one will be high scoring. The leg of solid Jeff Reed will win it.
Spread: Pitt -7.5: Cincy will beat this one. Close game.
New England at Baltimore
Pick: New England: The Patriots had an unexpected test against the McNabb-less Eagles. This is not a test. Kyle Boller has always been a joke, expect him to keep that up.
Spread: New England -20: New England will cover, score 56 points and reassert its dominance after a "humiliating" win against the Eagles.
There you have them. Gut Picks for Gut people. Stay Beautiful.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
If you've been a loyal follower of GVN, you've noticed that I've been pretty bad at updating in the last week. And because an series of unfortunate incidents, I wasn't able to pick as I would have liked last week: according to the numbers. Part of the blames goes to NFL.com for being bad updaters, but most goes to me. I know I let my fans down. 
Which leads me to my next point: I don't think I have any fans. Everyone I've talked to has said they prefer guts... guts is their man... that's how they would choose games... That was both heartbreaking and disappointing. I couldn't help coming to this simple conclusion: they are all scared. Scared to do the math. Scared to realize that patterns are everywhere, and statistics matter. Scared that there isn't something inside of us (call it a soul, call it chi, whatever) that is supernaturally guiding us towards a secret knowledge of the future. Scared that maybe, just maybe, numbers control everything and all history has been and will be predicted by the laws of nature and we are powerless to exert any free will upon it. Scared.
But I could care less. Go on believing what you would like. I will sit here quietly eating my nachos (which, according to the laws of nature, are delicious), secure in my acceptance of the truth. So, without further ado, here is my (The System's) prediction for tonight's game:
As you can see, this game isn't even close. Both teams have excellent offenses, but Dallas' is more explosive. Both teams have good defenses, but Dallas' keeps opponents out of the endzone. Finally, with a slightly tougher schedule and homefield advantage (what's that Guts? you didn't think I included homefield advantage? of course I did, there's nothing more numbery than homefield advantage), the game is Dallas' to lose. GB is good, and they will be good, but they are a young team that isn't ready for the big time. I can't wait till next year, when modern science develops a way to attach Bret Favre's Head and Arms to aaron rodger's nimble body. That'll secure the team's future and open up a lot of cap space. What will happen to Aaron Rodger's head? I don't know, but I think Roger Goddell will find a good use for it (think Robocop).
This is shaping up to be a good week. Keep in touch, America.
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